All Activity

BTC leg of a mid Feb pair trade sold at around USD 89K (via a BTC-ETF), the o/g leg put on shortly before the Iran war. While analytics helped with the decision, the reality is that much of it was luck ... and exposing ourselves to it (tail risk). Long straddles ..... Good luck. SD

Wait, it's not as simple as good money vs. bad money? Was left with the impression that "bad money" is stored in the evil bank while earning interest +/- the rate of inflation and can be used to buy or sell anything while "good money" can't be used to buy much of anything, isn't even used by some of its most ardent supporters and is priced all over the place as measured in "bad money"? You learn something new here every day.

That shit scares me, 2x leveraged funds can wipe you out. Largest short position you have by owning this is on Micron which is trading below 8x forward PE. Sure forward PE can be optimistic but still... Purely a sentiment feel on my part but I think you might be too early on this one which can be fatal on 2x leveraged funds.

It comes down to BTC man systematically benefiting from inflation (digitally), versus fiat man benefiting from inflation via a hard asset such as house (analog). Of course, nothing prevents either man from using both approaches, and many do . It just needs the US Federal Reserve to run the presses! SD

Belgium game is killing me

Oh I see, it all comes down to "bad money" vs. "good money". Honestly, I couldn't have even made that one up! The only economic theory that matters is whether I am accumulating wealth through my investments efforts. So far so good sans BTC.

"Tells me everything I need to know" that you're ignoring the entirety of economic theory and historical observations of people spending 'bad' money before 'good' money.

I don't care about Porsche or Ferrari. The fact is, you didn't even TRY to use it. Tells me what I need to know. And unless I'm desperate and trapped in a Country with a currency that depreciates by the week, I don't need another store of value. That is what investments are for. Until the advent of BTC, who used the term "store of value"? Currency was always a "means of exchange". No one with any sense at all retained large sums of non-interest bearing cash for long periods of time.

I've transferred value on the BTC network on many occasions. But never to dispose of it. The network exists. The transfer protocol exists. The fees are low. The settlement near instantaneous. I didn't wait 90 minutes, pay a $20 fee, nor seek permission to spend my own money when doing it. I don't need Porsche to accept a payment for a new engine to prove that concept for me. It would strengthen the medium of exchange argument of Porsche accepted it, but we're still not there yet... And bears would ignore it even if Porsche did just like you're ignoring it that Ferrari does. People can't even agree that it's a store of value which is still step #1. We're still early and there's plenty of time for it to be adopted as a medium of exchange and unit of account next.

Dude, have you seen my portfolio? You absolutely nailed my strategy.

Your logic makes no sense to me. Either BTC is useful for its intended purpose or it is not. Evidently it is not useful for you. Neither is it for me.

I've long since said it will be 1) a store of a value before it becomes 2) a widely accepted medium of exchange. Secondly, if you believe one money is rapidly becoming worthless and another is gaining in value rapidly, why would you ever get rid of the rapidly appreciating one just to prove a point to anonymous strangers on the Internet who will find a way to ignore it even if you did? 3) Buckeye made fun of Ferrari accepting BTC above as if it isn't an important use case. Here, you're making fun of me/Porsche for Porsch not/me not attempting. Bears don't get it both ways. Either a car company accepting it ilfor a large purchase is a meaningful metric, or is not, but you don't get to use both acceptance and non-acceptance as bearish arguments for BTC use cases

LOL, if you didn't attempt to use it that's on you! You make my point when a BTC advocate complains about the fiat system and doesn't even make an effort to use the very thing he is advocating.

A great parody of the investment psychology people. When I here that stuff I turn it off. Maybe this goes in the blue collar sayings thread but like the country singer says you have got to stand for something or you will fall for anything. Like BRO. Great stock. Great business. Great track record. Valuation cut in half for lots of smart sounding reasons of the moment. You are better off being stupid on that one and just buying a lot. 120 IQ thinking vs 150. I know a lot of people here hate Graham but the essence of winning is still doing the opposite and just buying good stuff because people hate it. If you start going down your bias checklist you are finished.

Reads story about debit transaction failing, getting permission from bank for debit transaction, it still failing, arranging wire transaction, paying fee, and still having to wait 90 minutes only to conclude it was Bitcoin that was problematic because I'didn't desire, nor attempt, to use it What an upside down world we live in... To everyone else reading this, on either side of the debate, is it just me or are the bearish arguments against just getting really weak and poorly supported?

I don’t think that’s correct. There are moats in semiconductor chips but not as much in commodity sectors like Memory. Memory is an example of a mostly commodity business where pricing went through the roof due to an unprecedented shortage caused by and investment boom, I actually don’t think NVDA is a bubble here. Sure it could decline but 59% if we get a demand lull for data center and AI chips but I think this market will be much bigger 5 or 10 years down the road. So ss long as NVDA remains the top dog, their revenue will be much higher too, as will earnings even if you consider that they likely give back some of their obscene margins.

OK then, conclusion is BTC didn't even serve you when you needed it. And next time arrange that bank wire in advance; it takes less than 5 minutes from start to finish and if your bank charges you, change banks.

Biggest holdings are Fairfax, Fairfax India, Exor, Bitcoin, Prosus & Alibaba, and Molina Healthcare. All have been miserable to flat YTD. My small names have done well, but not well enough to offset the drag from the big ones. Am like -7 to -9% YTD pending which days I check.

Just doing my part to advance the plot. Hopefully this doesn't foreshadow a tragic end to my portfolio.

So many of these stocks trade huge volumes pre-market and after-hours, even overnight. If you change a chart to show trades outside of standard market hours the daily charts look totally different and usually the gaps disappear. I don't think gaps matter as much as some other people but I do use it as a price level to trade off when they are just about to close. With gap fills and price targets and all that stuff I am never greedy, starting to buy/sell before the "number" and always buying and selling in many orders over a range of prices. You are balancing the risk of trading 'too soon' with the risk that it turns and runs away from you, unfilled. I've developed my trading style over 25 years or so and it works for me but it's all about managing risk - risk of losing money, risk of missing the trade because you got too greedy on price, risk of being way early... on and on.

"No one." "very, very few".

Oh boy. Yes, I know these are all still "great" "benefits" that have been touted for years by the Bitcoin bulls...except for the fact that no one, or very, very few people will ever use Bitcoin for these "benefits." You've even admitted yourself, that "I expect I may do something like buying a house halfway across town in ~2-years." Please let us know how that goes, in two years, if it happens. PS, I've got a Porsche I'll sell you for Bitcoin. It's a 911, and I'll give you a great deal. LMK once you've sent me the Bitcoin and I'll come up with a title

Mandatory meme

"no, Neo. I'm trying to tell you, when you're ready, you won't have to "

Young man no more...Victor Willis passes away at 74! Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/01/entertainment/victor-willis-village-people-death-scli-intl