Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Fund - Poll Q1'14

[Ross812]

Above are a collection of 64 companies recently discussed in the investment ideas forum and suggestions from board members. I am starting to hone the voting process, dropping names that received 0 or 1 vote in the last poll as ~10% consensus is needed before the idea is added to the portfolio. Each member gets 5 votes. Choose the companies you believe will have the best total return. The 15 companies (cash is an included asset class) with the most votes will be bought in the portfolio (balance stands at $1,118,000). Allocation will be determined by the number of votes each company receives.

 

The portfolio will be public for anyone to see at the following link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AivVdWOTQE2JdGQzYkFSQUg2eUR3UVRTcThFYWpBelE#gid=21

 

Edit: Missed LUK, AIQ, SSW, PWT, and PSD.TO

[xtreeq]

Also missed AIQ, SSW and PWE/PWT

[John Hjorth]

Hi Ross,

Thanks!

[mg0516]

Pulse Seismic should be added too...

[constructive]

The Packer effect is pretty strong this quarter. Votes for LUKOY up 330%, votes for ALSK down 60%, GNCMA goes from no votes to 7th most popular.

[xtreeq]

The Packer effect is pretty strong this quarter. Votes for LUKOY up 330%, votes for ALSK down 60%, GNCMA goes from no votes to 7th most popular.

 

The Force is strong with this one...

[Valuebo]

Thanks for the effort Ross812! It sure is getting hard to pick 5..

 

The Packer effect is pretty strong this quarter. Votes for LUKOY up 330%, votes for ALSK down 60%, GNCMA goes from no votes to 7th most popular.

 

The Force is strong with this one...

Not to mention the effect it has on small caps.. I'm not invested in Intralot but look at what's happening there. It's perfectly understandable but I wonder how much other buyers here adequately understand each thesis if they buy a few hours after a thesis has been posted.

 

I guess that's the downside of a growing forum. If I'm not mistaken the forum grew membership by 10% since early/mid 2013. At least Sanjeev is getting his costs back this way! He wouldn't be wrong to ask for a small annual fee either IMO. :)

[giofranchi]

I voted ALSK instead of ALS.TO by mistake. ::) Is it possible to change a vote once submitted?

 

Thank you,

 

Gio

[Ross812]

Gio,

 

I'll make a note to subtract 1 vote from ALSK and add it to ALS.TO. I don't want to open the poll to changes because I don't want people changing their vote based on what others have chosen.

 

Regards,

 

Ross

[giofranchi]

I don't want to open the poll to changes because I don't want people changing their vote based on what others have chosen.

 

Regards,

 

Ross

 

Ok Ross!

But… would someone really do that?! ???

Anyway, I got it!

 

Gio

 

[Ross812]

The most shocking thing to me about the poll so far is how bullish the board has become. Only 25.5% of members have selected cash so far as opposed to ~40% the preceding two quarters...

[giofranchi]

The most shocking thing to me about the poll so far is how bullish the board has become. Only 25.5% of members have selected cash so far as opposed to ~40% the preceding two quarters...

 

Well, I like to persist in my mistakes… And of course have chosen cash again. Errare humanum est, perseverare autem diabolicum ;D ;D ;D

 

Gio

[oddballstocks]

The most shocking thing to me about the poll so far is how bullish the board has become. Only 25.5% of members have selected cash so far as opposed to ~40% the preceding two quarters...

 

Or the poll reflects the bullishness of the people who like the stocks available for a vote.  I looked at the list and didn't see anything I owned or knew much about so I didn't vote.  My current portfolio has a heavy slug of cash.

[blainehodder]

The most shocking thing to me about the poll so far is how bullish the board has become. Only 25.5% of members have selected cash so far as opposed to ~40% the preceding two quarters...

 

The poll asked: "Choose the companies you believe will have the best total return."

 

I don't think anyone honestly thinks cash will have the best return.  You would be insane to believe that.  Cash might beat the market in general, but it absolutely will not beat the returns of every company on that list.  This poll basically asks you to wing it for the best 1 yr returns, not to select a nicely positioned portfolio you think will provide opportunity for the long term.  These are pretty different questions.

[fenris]

Well to be fair, BP and XOM could be seen as decent cash alternatives.

2008 top: ~$95

2010 bottom: ~$56

 

One can argue about how much intrinsic value is really fluctuating. But it doesn't look anything like a cash alternative to me.

[Kraven]

Well to be fair, BP and XOM could be seen as decent cash alternatives.

2008 top: ~$95

2010 bottom: ~$56

 

One can argue about how much intrinsic value is really fluctuating. But it doesn't look anything like a cash alternative to me.

 

There is no alternative for cash which is almost as good as money.

[Orange]

Well to be fair, BP and XOM could be seen as decent cash alternatives.

 

http://steelturman.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451bab869e20115705d8f7f970b-pi

[constructive]

The most shocking thing to me about the poll so far is how bullish the board has become. Only 25.5% of members have selected cash so far as opposed to ~40% the preceding two quarters...

 

Yes this surprises me as well.

 

Personally I voted for cash last quarter but not this quarter, despite raising cash and being a little more bearish now. The reason was that I only owned 4 stocks in the poll the first two quarters, and now I own 5.

[Ross812]

The fund was updated this morning. The allocation is as follows:

 

Company  %Alctn  Votes  % of Member Votes

BAC       16.70% 87 49%

FIATY      13.44% 70 39%

$ Cash   9.60% 50 28%

AIG         8.64% 45 25%

SHLD   8.06% 42 24%

ALS.TO   7.10% 37 21%

GNMCA   5.76% 30 17%

BRK.B   4.99% 26 15%

IBM         4.41% 23 13%

GM         4.22% 22 12%

C           3.84% 20 11%

LUKOY   3.65% 19 11%

INLOT.AT 3.26% 17 10%

LRE.L     3.26% 17 10%

WFC         3.07% 16   9%

[vinod1]

The fund was updated this morning. The allocation is as follows:

 

Company  %Alctn  Votes  % of Member Votes

BAC       16.70% 87 49%

FIATY      13.44% 70 39%

$ Cash   9.60% 50 28%

AIG         8.64% 45 25%

SHLD   8.06% 42 24%

ALS.TO   7.10% 37 21%

GNMCA   5.76% 30 17%

BRK.B   4.99% 26 15%

IBM         4.41% 23 13%

GM         4.22% 22 12%

C           3.84% 20 11%

LUKOY   3.65% 19 11%

INLOT.AT 3.26% 17 10%

LRE.L     3.26% 17 10%

WFC         3.07% 16   9%

 

Ross,

 

Thanks for setting this up and sharing with all of us. A great idea and I really like your approach to weighting the portfolio as well.

 

Did you consider equal weighting for say the top 10 stocks with no cash allocation. I would think this might more clearly reflect the board's ability to pick stock vs S&P 500. This could be a separate portfolio.

 

The current method combines a bit of board ability to market time (due to cash) and also introduces some noise around the stock weights. 

 

Vinod