bizaro86 Posted May 6, 2014 Posted May 6, 2014 Even lightstream had a good quarter... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lightstream-announces-first-quarter-production-232139288.html They are really paying down that debt. The Q2 report has the potential to be a catalyst for the stock, imo. Q1 doesn't look like they're making progress, becaust their capital spending is weighted towards the winter (as is typical in Canada). Q2 will have less spending due to breakup, plus the effects of the royalty sale on the financials, plus production from most of the Q1 drilling affecting the reported production numbers. Hopefully they keep up the asset sales, the market is pretty buoyant for those right now, and it would meaningfully surface value for them. I see potential for the reported debt number at the end of Q2 to be 2-300 MM less than at the end of Q1, which might be enough to re-rate the stock.
bizaro86 Posted May 6, 2014 Posted May 6, 2014 I'm hearing significant rumblings about a bunch more layoffs at PWE.
alertmeipp Posted May 6, 2014 Posted May 6, 2014 Lovely, I sold some LTS today to buy more ALS and SGL. Hope SGL do well as well (we should know tonight). Re: PWE layoff - where do you hear from? Are they selling something big?
bizaro86 Posted May 6, 2014 Posted May 6, 2014 Lovely, I sold some LTS today to buy more ALS and SGL. Hope SGL do well as well (we should know tonight). Re: PWE layoff - where do you hear from? Are they selling something big? I live in Calgary and work in oil and gas. I'm hearing rumours from friends/colleagues that PWE is doing layoffs again. Sorry, no written source or anything. However, a number of my co-workers are ex-Pennwest, and still know people there.
Myth465 Posted May 6, 2014 Posted May 6, 2014 I too bought more. Spyglass, LTS results were quite nice. They could have less than $500 mill in debt by YE.
alertmeipp Posted May 6, 2014 Posted May 6, 2014 Myth - where do you see SGL's result? Not able to find it yet. bizaro86 - cool news (other than ppl lost their jobs) - I still remember all those insider buy at 11+, I sold some but will sit on the rest for the turnaround.
Myth465 Posted May 6, 2014 Posted May 6, 2014 Not out yet. I am refreshing though. Should be out soon. I was referring to LTS. You should sell out of PWE and buy a smaller component of Leaps inmo.
alertmeipp Posted May 6, 2014 Posted May 6, 2014 Not out yet. I am refreshing though. Should be out soon. I was referring to LTS. You should sell out of PWE and buy a smaller component of Leaps inmo. I see. I saw big block of ask at 1.85 near the close, not sure why. I do have some leap on PWE. I hold common in my RRSP (Canadian thing) for the dividend.
Myth465 Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Looking at the updates now. Really like the first paragraph. http://spyglassresources.mwnewsroom.com/Files/f0/f04e6538-1dc7-47ef-83cb-131138b5c18c.pdf Funds flow from operations for the first quarter of 2014 of $16.0 million ($0.13 per share), represents a 40 percent increase over fourth quarter 2013 funds flow from operations of $11.4 million ($0.09 per share), reflecting higher commodity prices and improved operating and cash netbacks. http://www.spyglassresources.com/images/stories/files/May-2014-Presentation.pdf Upon closer inspection results seem a bit mixed, especially considering the leak. We are more or less in the same place with decent cash flow, a really high dividend and alot of debt. They seem to be doing the blocking and tackling correctly, but will need a big asset sale to get the debt down. I like the plan, the asset base is too spread out, but its a slow process.
bizaro86 Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Never looked at spyglass, you aren't kidding about that being a random grab bag of stuff. The graph in the presentation on the Dixon water flood is great though. That GOR decline means its working very well, probably some upside to production there if they sped up the pumps. Could indicate the company is being managed for long term value.
Aberhound Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Thank you to all of you who posted here. I chose to buy LTS steadily during the dip because I didn't know the other companies you mentioned. Now I get to decide when to take profits. When these companies move they move large percentages. Much more exciting than BAC. I try to copy Sanjeev's method of averaging in and average out which worked well here while buying. I have a hard time with these oil producers as it is much harder to determine a valuation. The estimate of double before this surge or roughly 12 after they get their debt from 3x to 2x is as good a guess as any. All I knew accuratutly was that the assets were cheap, that the valuations would rise to match the US and Wright was a good deal maker. Your comments have been very helpful. I like how the company left 19 wells to connect so the spring breakup won't diminish cash flow so much next quarter. Hopefully they will have more deals to announce. With high NG prices I hope they cooperate with their neighbours in Cardium and sell something bigger.
Myth465 Posted May 8, 2014 Posted May 8, 2014 Congrats. I should have bought LTS after the results. Canadian stocks move a bit later dont they. PWE and LTS should continue improvements. I will likely add to PWE in a few days.
mcliu Posted May 8, 2014 Posted May 8, 2014 Looking at Spyglass, how are they planning to fund their capex? At $12 cash net backs and 14,500 boed production, they'll still be short $30 million after dividends right? I'm pretty new to this whole sector so I might be getting the math wrong, would like to hear your thoughts.
gordoffh Posted May 27, 2014 Posted May 27, 2014 John Wright continues to buy SGL May 23/14 May 21/14 Wright, John David Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 50,000 $1.79
gordoffh Posted May 27, 2014 Posted May 27, 2014 looking better all the time now if wright can do the same with sgl excellent
alertmeipp Posted June 4, 2014 Posted June 4, 2014 Sold more LTS.TO to add to ALS and FTP. Was a nice run. SGL.TO has been so dead.
gordoffh Posted June 4, 2014 Posted June 4, 2014 I also bought more ALS today however kept my LTS. I backed my small half ton up at the end of the year and joined wright in buying shares. Now about a 3rd of portfolio and as always toughest question is when to sell. Still looks very promising and nice dividend to boot. Very concentrated in oil and gas and so far pretty good returns. If sgl and sd break out might get a chance to sell all and buy ffh and their preferreds. :)
Myth465 Posted June 5, 2014 Posted June 5, 2014 Congrats, I need to seriously look at ALS. I just dont buy the multiple story though. Hard to believe they buy something at 10x and are trading at 20x a few months later... I wish I bought some LTS. I have the same problem with PWE. When to sell. I think we will see 12 on PWE with a Duvernay sale though. Options really juice the returns and have no premium due to the dividend. I have given up on SGL. Why are you thinking preferreds? You can get 7% yields in Canada with growth in equity pretty easily.
alertmeipp Posted June 5, 2014 Posted June 5, 2014 PWE's Duvernay sale was supposed to close end of May, but it is still now ongoing based on boe site. Not sure if the bid is not good enough or we have a bidding war going on. Both LTS and SGL have additional blocks on. http://boereport.com/oil-and-gas-property-sales-canada/
alertmeipp Posted June 5, 2014 Posted June 5, 2014 Congrats, I need to seriously look at ALS. I just dont buy the multiple story though. Hard to believe they buy something at 10x and are trading at 20x a few months later... Why is it so hard to believe? LTS up 60% in few months too. Same assets. Having said that, I am skeptical too but there are other things in there that makes it a good one to own.
Myth465 Posted June 5, 2014 Posted June 5, 2014 I guess most of my wins have been that simple... I will have a look at it over the next few weeks. Oil and gas is a bit of a black box, and mining is even worse.... Will be relying heavily on the royalty stream, and will look at the development stuff as upside.
gordoffh Posted June 6, 2014 Posted June 6, 2014 I have given up on SGL. maybe a little hasty. they are drilling gas in Noel and if you believe NG is poised for more upside and oil stays up might still be a nice trade. NG price still staying up even with large injections to storage last couple of weeks.
alertmeipp Posted June 12, 2014 Posted June 12, 2014 LTS.. what a nice run.. for those that decided to go all in to CDN O&G at the beginning of the year.. congrats... I should have followed!
oldye Posted June 14, 2014 Posted June 14, 2014 Lots of room left, Lightstream's equity is still a 40-50 cent dollar at current prices. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/14/business/energy-environment/oil-industry-in-iraq-faces-setback-to-revival.html “The collapse of Iraq would bring an international oil crisis,” said Dragan Vuckovic, president of Mediterranean International, an oil service company that supplies state oil companies in Iraq. “It would mean crude oil would go up to $150 a barrel. It could spread unrest to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.” :-[
gordoffh Posted June 14, 2014 Posted June 14, 2014 Lots of room left, Lightstream's equity is still a 40-50 cent dollar at current prices. I agree however i did sell just under a 3rd of LTS position today. I was running some margin so it brought the house back in order. Still very concentrated in oil and gas with 17 % in each of LTS, SD, and ECA and 6% in SGL. Certainly not for everyone but so far it has worked and will begin to trim going forward. I still think NG can go higher and would be more than ok if oil stayed at 100.
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