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Everything posted by oldye

  1. I couldn't be there this year any good notes available?
  2. How does KOG compare to LTS in growth rate? Kog is also spending 940 million on capex vs 525-575 million for Lightstream. Lightstream is currently projecting an exit rate of 45,000-47,000 vs 39-41k for Kog. If only Lightstream just turned off the dividend and drilled a few more exploratory wells. Lightstream is worth more than 6 billion dollars at $100 oil. Being cashflow positive combined with a cheap valuation, deep drilling inventory makes it a very attractive takeover candidate right now.
  3. Time to go back and reread Intelligent Investor? The stock market in the. short-term is a voting machine...it doesn't have to, and does not revalue a stock based on fundamental changes, hence creating opportunities for value investors to do what we do. ::) During the cds/short days we were buying after huge moves had already happened, I would not consider bbry up 25% to be a huge move, especially since ffh is trading substantially above tangible book.
  4. Like I said, kind of crazy how we all came to the same conclusions... 100k volume shows that Touchstone is in strong hands I guess..at least at these price levels. 100k is nothing for some of the members of this board, let alone everyone that reads it. Ideally Lts/SD gets bought out before Mr. Market has wakes up...
  5. I think it's interesting how so many of us took similar positions, I sold out of my FFH (after 8 years) and went all in on oil and gas. I own the lts common, sd in the money leaps and touchstone exploration. Don't like talking about touchstone on here because it's so illiquid. But I hope to get back into FFH once these companies realize their value.
  6. back of the envelope: Enterprise Value after recent divestiture ~ 3.9 Billion less 239 million in sold assets since q1 - 3.66 Billion Less value of 80,000 acres in the Duvernay - (600-800 million) 2.8-3.0 Billion Proforma Fund flow from ops - 635-660 million implies a current Funds flow multiple somewhere around 4.4x You can definitely argue that 4.4x cashflow is fair for a commodity company and that is your choice. But right now I think there is a good chance we see higher oil prices and Lts will continue to reduce debt and unlock value. Looks like they put another block of land on sale through RBC, submission deadline is June 19th and we should expect to see another 100+ million reduction in debt if a deal is made. The natural gas injection results look promising and I like having the upside of technological advances that will unlock even more value from their land.
  7. Lots of room left, Lightstream's equity is still a 40-50 cent dollar at current prices. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/14/business/energy-environment/oil-industry-in-iraq-faces-setback-to-revival.html “The collapse of Iraq would bring an international oil crisis,” said Dragan Vuckovic, president of Mediterranean International, an oil service company that supplies state oil companies in Iraq. “It would mean crude oil would go up to $150 a barrel. It could spread unrest to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.” :-[
  8. GM will strike back? :o More importantly Berkeley???? My guess, this is Mohnish's new means of accessing the new car pool lane on the 405.
  9. I like the transcript Idea, I've attended the last 4 or 5 dinners in a row but can't go this year because I have to be at a trade show. Nothing will replace being there in person :'(
  10. That is why just about all of us left first/second chance we got. The few that stayed must be really stubborn.
  11. Isn't he usually about 34% in cash, could be that he's just bullish on $usd. All this domestic production is great for reducing the U.S trade deficit- even Hoisington thinks we'll have 3% gdp growth - should bode well for Canadian companies selling products in $USD
  12. Reinsurance side cars backed by hedge funds looking for a new place to bet. A few years back the late Jack Byrne's White Mountain used these vehicles with horrible results for shareholders. Another trend I've noticed are the new hedge fund run insurance co's like Green Light, Third Point Reinsurance, Sac Re etc. lots of capital and general dearth of insurable events is why I don't currently have any investments in this sector. http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2006/07/17/byrne-says-white-mountains-shareholders-protected-by-sidecar-deal
  13. Food for thought: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/natural_gas.html Natural gas powers about 112,000 vehicles in the United States and roughly 14.8 million vehicles worldwide. Currently growing at about 10% per year, how long before natural gas makes up roughly 1% of all vehicles on the road in the U.S? Back to the topic at hand- this is paraphrasing of course: Charlie has stated several times that he thinks using up all of our easy to find hydrocarbon resources for transportation is short sighted and stupid. In that last video I saw he said that he thinks scientists might come up with a solution but it is no way to bet...
  14. During these calls it does sound as if Prem would prefer to mark everything at intrinsic value but like everything with accounting you have to go with the lesser of two evils, and even though MTM is always being manipulated I don't think I would invest in a company where the accountants/regulators/ceo would decide what everything was worth. I guess it isn't fair because it certainly counts on all of their hedges/ stocks/ bonds. But if Fairfax gets to report the quarterly profits and losses of those companies they shouldn't get to mark them to market. I think Prem's language during these calls is consistent with all his previous calls. I wonder who is buying these shares at these prices (I should also probably thank you)
  15. Just read the Opec report the other day, they're forecasting European GDP to contract by about .5% this year, U.S growth has been revised down to around 1.5%. That is roughly 50% of the world's GDP growing at 0.5% a year right now with a lot of central bank monetization. As far as lack of marginal workers, they're out there in droves and more will come back in the fold if the economy heats up, which it probably won't, its been almost 6 years since 08, we're due for another 'correction.' I think Hoisington is right and as soon as QE stops, rates will drop. What happens to the GDP's of all the oil producing countries when the price of Oil hits 75 again? They're barely growing as it is, I think the reason a lot of oil stocks are cheap is because this is being priced in.
  16. Anyone know the date for the 2014 meeting?
  17. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-08-29/the-brazilian-billionaire-who-controls-your-beer-your-condiments-and-your-whopper#p1
  18. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ1pbQyFpo4 Just replace a few key words and you'd have Stevie's theme song
  19. How do you mean "overpriced" if we're talking about just buying the electricity only? It's cheaper than what you currently pay your electric utility company, so many people will find it underpriced relative to what they pay already. I think it makes sense to buy your own system if you have the cash, but if you are hoarding your cash (or paying down debt) and you merely just want to lower your utility bill so that you can have lower monthly expenses, then there is nothing to lose by having SolarCity provide you with discounted electricity for the next five years. By buying the electricity you are effectively leasing/financing/renting the system from them, your monthly lease payment is determined by how much electricity your system generates. They are absorbing some of the risk of ownership. And you're right, you will save money vs buying from the grid. They get to keep most of the rebates/subsidies associated with the installation. Or you could use your home equity and have it professionally installed for under $3k/kw, keep the subsidies/tax benefits yourself, reduce your electricity bill in exchange for a even smaller monthly payment on your loan. I'm not saying they don't have a place in the market today, but the technology will continue to change and there are a lot of companies (see the google adverts on this page) doing the same exact thing. The large solar projects Berkshire is involved in cost less than $5k/kw and qualified for a lot of tax benefits, but the economics of these projects improves as the cost drops/ efficiency goes up. The cost of small/individual inverters makes the large projects far more economical.
  20. They are competing with many small companies who can offer the same overpriced installations with zero money out of pocket. And if you think about what the future will look like, innovation in racking and inverters will bring the costs/ ease of installation down considerably. Why wouldn't homeowners push the middle men out and just keep all the benefits themselves? You're right when you say current economics, at $5000+/kw homeowners might need the "free" financing. What happens when solar efficiency goes up and the standard installation costs becomes less than $2500/kw? If you look up the California statistics, you'll see some installations already being done for less. At 2.7 Billion Valuation and 130 in 2012 Revenue, with absolutely no moat, it seems to me like this might be a good company to investigate as a short (probably the first time I've ever suggested something like this and I like Elon!) http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/reports/cost_vs_system_size/
  21. And rising electricity rates, note though that there are no barriers of entry to this business and just about anyone can provide "financing" for "Free" solar. Oh and a lot of current subsides (at least in my area) have been reduced and are going to expire entirely over the next few years.
  22. I don't know where you live Eric, but here in California you can find statistics for all solar installations and Solar City is consistently above $5000/ installed kw. I haven't done this myself but if you split the project up, you can have a solar engineer design the system for less than $300, hire a top rated company to install and help you register all the permits/rebates for the system for about $1.25/watt and then buy the panels/inverters /racking yourself for under $1.25/watt bringing your all in cost easily under $3000/kw before rebates. Depending on the amount of Sunlight, your savings yield on the system before rebates can easily be north 20%.
  23. Thanks guys, great event as always. Cheers!
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