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Guy Spier 2012 Annual Letter


giofranchi
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Please, find it in attachment.

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

Year+End+letter+2012.pdf

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He is very bullish on the U.S.

I share his bullishness although I feel the market is over-stretched.

I think a sensible person should be able to see the strength of the U.S. by now, the system of the society, pro-business pro-innovation, cheap energy, abundant resources and so on and so on

The only overhang is the gov debt and esp. the medicare/healthcare issue down the road - a compromise will move out this uncertainty at some point but I expect a very bumpy road ahead and therefore ample entries . could be very wrong.

 

On the other hand, I am NOT bullish on China, at all

and I am a Chinese (first gen immigrant), and I have much deeper exp in the Chinese market than in the U.S. market...

Sometimes when I watch US Tv program and see so called experts talking about Chinese economy or data from China, I just want to laugh - these guys simply don't know what they are talking about...

I sincerely think China not only will have a crash - they NEED a crash - the sooner the better - it's better for China in the long run.

 

I was a fan of Jim Rogers years ago - no longer so - now I think he has obvious holes in his logic.

 

 

Probably I should buy another house in silicon valley but the housing price already rose a lot and is over the high of 2007 in many regions......

 

Hadn't read his letters yet, I like the dual class shares option

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