shalab Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Would like to run it by the fairfax heads on this message board. Since the fixed investment income from insurance holdings is low, a higher premium is generally not warranted unless the growth prospects are immense. Property/casualty insurance is going to be more competitive as a bunch of big insurers are becoming healthy again (after the crisis) and want to focus on P&C - e.g; AIG, HIG, Swiss-Re etc. Higher competition typically translates to lower profits. In addition, I don't see avenues for 15% growth in FFH in the current situation, atleast for the next couple of years. Sir Francis Galton, the founder of modern statistics observed the "wisdom of the crowds" in early 20th century: In 1906, visiting a livestock fair, he stumbled upon an intriguing contest. An ox was on display, and the villagers were invited to guess the animal's weight after it was slaughtered and dressed. Nearly 800 participated, but not one person hit the exact mark: 1,198 pounds. Galton's insight was to examine the mean of these guesses from independent people in the crowd: Astonishingly the mean of those 800 guesses was 1,197 pounds, accurate to fraction of a percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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