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Massive Problems in China!


Parsad
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I've been concerned about China for some time, especially the loans their banks have been giving out over the years.  We've been as concerned as we have been about Europe, but they've been able to defer issues because of their growth and reserves.  I'm getting pretty damn concerned with China now.  After reading today's article in the Financial Times, how can the rest of the world not see a massive, massive problem with China's financials?  They just hope that if they kick it down the road far enough, they may grow their way out of it.  How much of China's growth was funded by historically bad loans?  Like the United States, it is one country and one government, so they won't face some of the same issues as Europe, but I can't see how China cannot slow down going forward.  Cheers!

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/12/us-china-debt-idUSTRE81B0XY20120212

 

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Guest misterstockwell

I was just watching CNBC World Asia Squawk Box(a great program by the way--really helps understand whats happening in Asia)--it was buzzing with this story.

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Parsad, does it pain you to admin Chanos was right ... ;)

 

BeerBaron

 

No, we were concerned about China before Chanos came out.  And we posted on here that unfortunately we agree with him on this.  But we knew China was rich enough and growing fast enough to hide their problems for a significant period of time.  Cheers!

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Guest valueInv

Well, the question is when does China take the hit? China could avoid the problem for a long time. The other factor that is concerning is that the EU is China's largest trading partner. A slowdown there is not good news for China.

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Many on the board were indeed cautious of China for some time.  Many banks in China that publicly report, are leveraged 100-to-1 or more.  In essence, many that lend in the provinces via government support are bankrupt though not technically bankrupt.  I have read that some are even leveraged 500-to-1 or more.  And these are the ones that publicly report!

 

However, when you can print your own money this may be extended for some time.

 

Cheers

JEast

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I've been looking into ways to short China's real estate and financials for quite a while now, but never have because they can kick the can down the road longer than my patience will allow.  They're going to have massive dislocations sooner or later, but is it sooner... or later...?

 

So what are the second and third-order effects?  Cheaper commodities?  Australia and Canada resource sector issues?  Could be some cheap, long-duration hedges in there somewhere.

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I am so curious about people here talking about China like they do know China. No offense, but the situation there is probably so complicated that any conclusions are not more than educated guesses. China is a place I feel thoroughly mystified as I grow older and acquire more knowledge. Yes, I myself is a Chinese.

 

Let's just wait and see.

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