onyx1 Posted September 14, 2011 Posted September 14, 2011 Hahahaha!! Not even in the right country, of the right state, of the right city, of the parking lot of the ballpark!!
sdev Posted September 14, 2011 Posted September 14, 2011 This idea was actually mentioned in Grant's a while ago, and I believe it was posted on the board.
BargainValueHunter Posted September 14, 2011 Posted September 14, 2011 Ackman has a high IQ but *perhaps* he is straying outside his "circle of competence". It will be interesting to watch. He claims that he may make 100 times his money on this play. Can someone explain how he would achieve this?
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted September 14, 2011 Posted September 14, 2011 Ackman has a high IQ but *perhaps* he is straying outside his "circle of competence". It will be interesting to watch. He claims that he may make 100 times his money on this play. Can someone explain how he would achieve this? I certainly would not be impressed if I was an investor. He is like making the trade through something called a currency swaption - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swaption. His risk exposure is likely to be very asymmetric.
Josh4580 Posted September 15, 2011 Posted September 15, 2011 I really like this Ackman trade. BTW if you cant get options on the HKD than you can buy the HKD using Interactive Brokers at 30:1 margin. A 30% gain like he expects would produce a 900% gain at that leverage. Not bad but no 100:1 gain as he projects in the options. I think his idea is even better than the Japan CDS trade that Kyle Bass has on, which actually have increase from 104bp when i posted on this thread to 124bp.
Myth465 Posted September 15, 2011 Posted September 15, 2011 Interesting Josh even a 5% increase could be a nice gain. What if China slows though, I guess its why you would keep it small.
Josh4580 Posted September 15, 2011 Posted September 15, 2011 Well the HK dollar is pegged currently so it can only move a couple of bp here and there. I don't see much downside as any un-pegging would mean a much stronger HKD instead of a weaker one.
dual_bid Posted September 15, 2011 Posted September 15, 2011 this idea was pitched by DM to HF (and made public - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-02/hong-kong-should-end-exchange-rate-peg-to-u-s-dollar-deutsche-bank-says.html)
hyten1 Posted September 15, 2011 Posted September 15, 2011 what are some ways one would put on this long hkd position?
Josh4580 Posted September 15, 2011 Posted September 15, 2011 You open a forex account and use margin to short USD/HKD. FXCM and interactive brokers let you trade it.
finetrader Posted October 7, 2011 Posted October 7, 2011 So is anyone has found out how to get options on HKD? I use Interactive Broker and they don't seem to offer it. They seem to offer option on the Renmindi(RMB) though.
fareastwarriors Posted July 31, 2013 Posted July 31, 2013 Ackman's Pershing Square to Announce Largest-Ever Investment http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324170004578638470384339086.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews ... Mr. Ackman's firm is investing more than $2 billion in a U.S.-based industrial company, people familiar with the matter said. The identity of the firm remained unclear Tuesday. The investment will represent nearly 10% of the company, which has a market capitalization of more than $20 billion, said the people, who added that the company's stock over the past several years has underperformed the broader market. ...
fareastwarriors Posted July 31, 2013 Posted July 31, 2013 Ackman Says Pershing Square Takes Stake in Air Products http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-31/ackman-says-pershing-square-takes-9-8-stake-in-air-products.html ... The hedge-fund firm’s stake in Allentown, Pennsylvania-based Air Products cost about $2.05 billion and is now valued at about $2.2 billion, Ackman, 47, said today in an e-mail. Air Products, which had a market value of $22.1 billion as of yesterday, is the previously unidentified target described by Ackman in a July 8 letter to clients. ...
Guest wellmont Posted July 31, 2013 Posted July 31, 2013 Ackman Says Pershing Square Takes Stake in Air Products http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-31/ackman-says-pershing-square-takes-9-8-stake-in-air-products.html The hedge-fund firm’s stake in Allentown, Pennsylvania-based Air Products cost about $2.05 billion and is now valued at about $2.2 billion, Ackman, 47, said today in an e-mail. Air Products, which had a market value of $22.1 billion as of yesterday, is the previously unidentified target described by Ackman in a July 8 letter to clients. ... ...you would think that with the HLF debacle he would learn to just do things quietly. now that he has established his position at lower prices, he is "inviting" the herd to come in and drive the price up to counter his losses in hlf. I wonder what his record would be if he did not have the access to the media that he does?
Parsad Posted July 31, 2013 Author Posted July 31, 2013 Ackman Says Pershing Square Takes Stake in Air Products http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-31/ackman-says-pershing-square-takes-9-8-stake-in-air-products.html The hedge-fund firm’s stake in Allentown, Pennsylvania-based Air Products cost about $2.05 billion and is now valued at about $2.2 billion, Ackman, 47, said today in an e-mail. Air Products, which had a market value of $22.1 billion as of yesterday, is the previously unidentified target described by Ackman in a July 8 letter to clients. ... ...you would think that with the HLF debacle he would learn to just do things quietly. now that he has established his position at lower prices, he is "inviting" the herd to come in and drive the price up to counter his losses in hlf. I wonder what his record would be if he did not have the access to the media that he does? Well any rational person would assume this type of behavior is illegal...but apparently not! Cheers!
jb85 Posted July 31, 2013 Posted July 31, 2013 How is ackman doing anything wrong/shaddy? I may not do it personally, but i don't see why its morally wrong to announce a stake in something, especially if most of his buying is already done. If people want to invest fine, if they want to take the other side (like many did in the herbalife situation), then thats fine. I doubt ackman cares all that much if someone takes the other side. (as a side note, didn't Air Products actually force the issue and make ackman announce his holdings) He not in the same exact mold as Buffett, but i don't understand peoples hate for this guy...He practically doubled annual returns of the market since inception, and most of his interviews etc seem very logical and value based. He's actually one of the people i most enjoy listening to.
JBird Posted July 31, 2013 Posted July 31, 2013 Well any rational person would assume this type of behavior is illegal...but apparently not! Cheers! Why illegal?
G2 Posted August 1, 2013 Posted August 1, 2013 I mean, I suppose one could view it as illegal to profit off information that may be perceived as material and non-public. At the same time, guys like Ackman and Icahn have built a name and credibility that the markets seek to evaluate in real time so it no longer strikes me as a big deal when a position is announced with great fanfare and the remora bite. But the first time I learned that Icahn will trade around and sell into the price spike associated with an announced position, I had a hard time reconciling those two sets of facts. Seems fair to get paid a little upfront, fix the co and get paid the rest upon a successful exit.
siddharth18 Posted August 1, 2013 Posted August 1, 2013 You know what's illegal? Trying to pull a short squeeze on Ackman.................according to Ackman's lawyers of course ;D http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2013/07/31/fresh-squeeze-ackman-questions-soros-buy-herbalife/
cogitator99 Posted August 1, 2013 Posted August 1, 2013 HLF up 9% and JCP down 10%...not the best day for Ackman.
fareastwarriors Posted August 1, 2013 Posted August 1, 2013 Akman Copycats Risk Air Products Regret http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-01/akman-copycats-risk-air-products-regret-real-m-a.html
Kiltacular Posted August 2, 2013 Posted August 2, 2013 HLF up 9% and JCP down 10%...not the best day for Ackman. Are the screws being tightened. I remember when they were circling Berkowitz. Presumably Ackman's capital is more stable than Berkowitz's -- then again, with fewer investors, maybe it's the opposite.
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