Jump to content

Hussman's Recession Composite


bmichaud
 Share

Recommended Posts

I have followed Hussman for years and do like him. If you like logic he certainly explains his view quite well. However, I find that he tries to get a little too cute in timing and he is very much a macro guy. Bottom line, I do not mind being early and do not mind buying when I find something cheap that I understand and like (regardless of market internals).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc110808.htm

 

His recession composite is flashing red at the moment, a very concerning proposition.

 

He is giving a high probability to the likelihood last week's selloff is the beginning of a bear market...

 

How seriously would folks on this board take that given Hussman is the quintessential permabear?

 

Recession or not...

 

In two more years you'll have had 4.5 years of bad loans running off replaced by 4.5 years of very high quality loans.

 

The people employed today are largely the ones who remained employed during the past recession, as not that many jobs came back.  These employed people are the most "employable" ones, the firms like to cut the fat first.  These are the very same people who will have got the last 4.5 years of loans.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc110808.htm

 

His recession composite is flashing red at the moment, a very concerning proposition.

 

He is giving a high probability to the likelihood last week's selloff is the beginning of a bear market...

 

How seriously would folks on this board take that given Hussman is the quintessential permabear?

 

Recession or not...

 

In two more years you'll have had 4.5 years of bad loans running off replaced by 4.5 years of very high quality loans.

 

The people employed today are largely the ones who remained employed during the past recession, as not that many jobs came back.  These employed people are the most "employable" ones, the firms like to cut the fat first.  These are the very same people who will have got the last 4.5 years of loans.  

 

a very good point!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All great points!

 

When I first started following him I took him a bit too seriously, now I just use his commentary as another macro data point that I don't necessarily invest on but keep in the back of my mind.

 

 

 

 

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc110808.htm

 

His recession composite is flashing red at the moment, a very concerning proposition.

 

He is giving a high probability to the likelihood last week's selloff is the beginning of a bear market...

 

How seriously would folks on this board take that given Hussman is the quintessential permabear?

 

Recession or not...

 

In two more years you'll have had 4.5 years of bad loans running off replaced by 4.5 years of very high quality loans.

 

The people employed today are largely the ones who remained employed during the past recession, as not that many jobs came back.  These employed people are the most "employable" ones, the firms like to cut the fat first.  These are the very same people who will have got the last 4.5 years of loans.  

 

a very good point!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...