FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[Guest cherzeca]

we should set up a betting pool when the announcement will be made.

 

I say Friday 11/27. 

 

winner gets something valuable

 

 

[investorG]

Seems that PSPA is close. Gasparino:

BREAKING on @FannieMae @FreddieMac $FNMA (1 of 2) — Housing and economic aides close to @JoeBiden are legitimately worried that @MarkCalabria and @stevenmnuchin1 will enact a GSE reform that will be difficult to unwind by new administration. It’s the reason why they are spreading

 

(2 of 2) that Mnuchin is jeopardizing his legacy at @USTreasury if he does something that screws up the housing market. Story developing $FMCC

 

This is getting really interesting! Hoping and speculating we will see something concrete after all.

 

Speculating? I don't know how much more this can be telegraphed at this point.

 

Most savvy investors won't pretend the Americans who wake up and sell these securities today are idiots.

[onyx1]

we should set up a betting pool when the announcement will be made.

 

I say Friday 11/27. 

 

winner gets something valuable

 

Friday 12/4

 

I suggest a bottle of McCallan presented at our victory dinner.

[COBFInfinity]

we should set up a betting pool when the announcement will be made.

 

I say Friday 11/27. 

 

winner gets something valuable

 

The only part of this bet I care about is that the loser also gets something valuable.

[Luke 532]

The only part of this bet I care about is that the loser also gets something valuable.

 

Like a 7-figure payday...

[Guest cherzeca]

today's letter from Michael (not so) Bright to Mnuchin:  https://structuredfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SFA-response-to-Treasury-on-PSPAs-Releasing-GSEs-Final-Draft.pdf

 

the more he protests the better I like it

[orthopa]

today's letter from Michael (not so) Bright to Mnuchin:  https://structuredfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SFA-response-to-Treasury-on-PSPAs-Releasing-GSEs-Final-Draft.pdf

 

the more he protests the better I like it

 

cries of desperation it seems.

[SnarkyPuppy]

today's letter from Michael (not so) Bright to Mnuchin:  https://structuredfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SFA-response-to-Treasury-on-PSPAs-Releasing-GSEs-Final-Draft.pdf

 

the more he protests the better I like it

 

LOL

[undervalued]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-trump-administration-may-privatize-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-and-it-could-disrupt-the-nations-housing-finance-system-11606208076?siteid=yhoof2

[TwoCitiesCapital]

The odd thing about all of this is that I've still been able to pick up shares in the more illiquid names fairly easily. I picked up some more FMCCJ a few days back @ 12.25. Again @ 13.00 two to three days later and again this AM @ 14.75. All using limit orders for odd lots. I'm not purchasing in size mind you, but have been surprised that I've been able to increase my position a few % points using low ball limit orders despite the news flow/share prices moving the right direction.

 

I'd think anyone holding these illiquid preferreds would be following this rather closely - most of the tourists are going to be in the more liquid issues and the common.

 

So who is selling this stuff @ 25-30% of par on this news and why? Also, anyone looking to increase their position to leverage the upside might be able to do so!

[orthopa]

The odd thing about all of this is that I've still been able to pick up shares in the more illiquid names fairly easily. I picked up some more FMCCJ a few days back @ 12.25. Again @ 13.00 two to three days later and again this AM @ 14.75. All using limit orders for odd lots. I'm not purchasing in size mind you, but have been surprised that I've been able to increase my position a few % points using low ball limit orders despite the news flow/share prices moving the right direction.

 

I'd think anyone holding these illiquid preferreds would be following this rather closely - most of the tourists are going to be in the more liquid issues and the common.

 

So who is selling this stuff @ 25-30% of par on this news and why? Also, anyone looking to increase their position to leverage the upside might be able to do so!

 

I have been continuing to add myself over the last couple of days. I never thought we would have had a chance after the capital rule. FWIW maybe market still believes that 4th PSPA doesn't happen and the opposing news flow is enough to make someone on the fence wait and see what happens. 12 years of waiting maybe compressed into 2.5 months and there are still many skeptics and rightfully so.

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

I suppose most of the investors who have done thorough DD are already in their preferred junior preferred up to their limit. so at this point, it is mostly traders in the juniors and robin hooders in the common. for a large institution that was not in the name but was considering making an investment, I suppose that investor wants more evidence that the GSEs will be on a recap/release guide path, and that would be a 4thA..and I bet that even after a 4thA, juniors won't be more that 60-75% of par...which if true would leave some reward left for someone who wants to get in at a reduced risk scenario

[orthopa]

we should set up a betting pool when the announcement will be made.

 

I say Friday 11/27. 

 

winner gets something valuable

 

Ill raise you 1 week. Fingers crossed. The fact that Mnuchin and Calabria have met multiple times in the past couple of weeks, the rumor mill is running, and the anti release articles are coming out left and right tells me there is the possiblity for this to happen eminently and most importantly before 12/9 to preserve Calabrias position for as long as possible to see this through. The consensus seems to split on where the SCOTUS will be argued but the fact that this is happening now and not a couple days before Christmas tells me 12/9 is on MC's and SM's radar too.

[Williams406]

If we are celebrating victory here with libations, I'll be enjoying Zacapa 23--neat--from an island in the Caribbean. That drink recommendation serves as, quite easily, my most important contribution to this board.

[investorG]

They waited until the last possible day for the letter agreement.  January is likely the decision point on whether a 4th amendment occurs.

 

From commentary on this board it appears the Collins case probably needs to go ahead on Dec 9 to avoid a quick firing of Calabria at will soon after Biden's inauguration.

[investorG]

I suppose most of the investors who have done thorough DD are already in their preferred junior preferred up to their limit. so at this point, it is mostly traders in the juniors and robin hooders in the common. for a large institution that was not in the name but was considering making an investment, I suppose that investor wants more evidence that the GSEs will be on a recap/release guide path, and that would be a 4thA..and I bet that even after a 4thA, juniors won't be more that 60-75% of par...which if true would leave some reward left for someone who wants to get in at a reduced risk scenario

 

Good point.  Even if we get a 4th amendment, the pool of long term trapped longs aching to exit would likely be large enough to cap price gains somewhat.

[orthopa]

They waited until the last possible day for the letter agreement.  January is likely the decision point on whether a 4th amendment occurs.

 

From commentary on this board it appears the Collins case probably needs to go ahead on Dec 9 to avoid a quick firing of Calabria at will soon after Biden's inauguration.

 

For what "cause" will Calabria be fired for if Collins does not go through?

[allnatural]

Re: Collins you have it backwards. There are 2 scenarios here:

 

1) Collins case is dropped (as a result of PSPA amendment and/or settlement). Calabria's job would be safe until this issue is re-litigated by Biden back to SCOTUS (probably sometime in 2022 as it would have to make its way through the DC circuit first).

2) Collins case isn't dropped (no PSPA/settlement). Calabria will be removable by Biden as soon as the Collins ruling is released (May-June).

 

As you can see the Admin and Calabria have a large incentive to get rid of the Collins case during the lame duck. Regardless, the earliest Calabria gets removed is May/June, and potentially into 2022 if the Collins case goes away shortly (by giving shareholders the remedy they desire via a PSPA amendment).

 

 

They waited until the last possible day for the letter agreement.  January is likely the decision point on whether a 4th amendment occurs.

 

From commentary on this board it appears the Collins case probably needs to go ahead on Dec 9 to avoid a quick firing of Calabria at will soon after Biden's inauguration.

[COBFInfinity]

Interesting action in $50 preferreds to start the morning. Someone has bid exactly $17.50 for exactly 4,285 shares each (comes to just under $75,000 each) on FREJO, FMCKK, FREJP, FMCCO, FMCKP, FREJN, FMCCH. I've been watching these tickers a long time and have never seen such coordination across issues. Someone wants to get in.

[typicalvalue]

Interesting action in $50 preferreds to start the morning. Someone has bid exactly $17.50 for exactly 4,285 shares each (comes to just under $75,000 each) on FREJO, FMCKK, FREJP, FMCCO, FMCKP, FREJN, FMCCH. I've been watching these tickers a long time and have never seen such coordination across issues. Someone wants to get in.

 

Could be this by Ackman (it's recommending commons but as a side effect on the pfds)?

 

 

Btw don't know how he arrives at his target given the insurmountable amount of capital needed

[COBFInfinity]

Interesting action in $50 preferreds to start the morning. Someone has bid exactly $17.50 for exactly 4,285 shares each (comes to just under $75,000 each) on FREJO, FMCKK, FREJP, FMCCO, FMCKP, FREJN, FMCCH. I've been watching these tickers a long time and have never seen such coordination across issues. Someone wants to get in.

 

Someone is hitting most of these bids. Someone else wants to get out. That's what makes a market, I guess.

[typicalvalue]

Interesting action in $50 preferreds to start the morning. Someone has bid exactly $17.50 for exactly 4,285 shares each (comes to just under $75,000 each) on FREJO, FMCKK, FREJP, FMCCO, FMCKP, FREJN, FMCCH. I've been watching these tickers a long time and have never seen such coordination across issues. Someone wants to get in.

 

Someone is hitting most of these bids. Someone else wants to get out. That's what makes a market, I guess.

 

There are a lot of trapped longs on this trade, its not a surprising  behaviour that are exiting once they reach BE or at small loss.

[Luke 532]

Interesting action in $50 preferreds to start the morning. Someone has bid exactly $17.50 for exactly 4,285 shares each (comes to just under $75,000 each) on FREJO, FMCKK, FREJP, FMCCO, FMCKP, FREJN, FMCCH. I've been watching these tickers a long time and have never seen such coordination across issues. Someone wants to get in.

 

That's only about $500,000.  Irrelevant, IMO.

[typicalvalue]

Interesting action in $50 preferreds to start the morning. Someone has bid exactly $17.50 for exactly 4,285 shares each (comes to just under $75,000 each) on FREJO, FMCKK, FREJP, FMCCO, FMCKP, FREJN, FMCCH. I've been watching these tickers a long time and have never seen such coordination across issues. Someone wants to get in.

 

That's only about $500,000.  Irrelevant, IMO.

 

Any news on the PSPA timing? Have you spoken with your source? Thx Luke

[Luke 532]

Any news on the PSPA timing? Have you spoken with your source? Thx Luke

 

Haven't received an update, so previous stance of highly confident PSPA by Inauguration is probably still my source's view.