FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[investorG]

It appears likely that the SC is taking the case with no appearance on today's denial sheet.  In that likely case, I believe the Mnuchin-Trump team have underperformed the honorable path so far by letting it get to this somewhat binary point but here we seem to be...good luck everyone.

[Guest cherzeca]

It appears likely that the SC is taking the case with no appearance on today's denial sheet.  In that likely case, I believe the Mnuchin-Trump team have underperformed the honorable path so far by letting it get to this somewhat binary point but here we seem to be...good luck everyone.

 

you cant make any inferences yet. they may not have even begun to discuss it

[orthopa]

I agree, though rejecting APA is highly unlikely.  there is a split in the circuits, and in event of rejection, district court in Texas would follow 5th C Willet opinion and reach some kind of order adverse to govt...at which point govt would seek to restrain the order in some C favorable to it, such as in DC...a potential mess.

 

this is a highly settle-able case (not saying an easy negotiation, but something that both parties can see as in their best interest to settle), and the best near term pathway to settlement would be to have govt have to sit through a trial/summary judgment motions in Houston imo

 

When would trial/summary judgement montions start on this?

[Guest cherzeca]

if scotus says we are going to wait for the district court, then the district court will set up a scheduling conference and the court and the parties will hash this out

[Luke 532]

Justices issue more orders, but no action on high-profile cases

https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/01/justices-issue-more-orders-but-no-action-on-high-profile-cases/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

ACG response, for what it's worth...

Yes, but the 5th Circuit will now be remanded to the District Court in Texas.  This is not good for the government.

 

And Pagliara's response to ACG...

Absolutely Correct. Watch for the announcement @_InvestorsUnite @timpagliara  for the time of our conference call with lead attorney David Thompson on January 24th. He will explain the ruling and the strategy going forward.

[investorG]

The last arguments for this SC term appear to be the end of April. 

 

So while in limbo I'd guess we'd have between now and say the end of February for our case to be taken with results possibly released in this term by Jul-1, as the govt requested. 

 

Moving into March and after, if the SC takes the case we're likely looking at a December 2020 - June 2021 ruling.

[Guest cherzeca]

another IU CC with David Thompson...David never disappoints

 

https://investorsunite.org/media-teleconferenceinvestors-unite-legal-update-for-gse-shareholders/

[Luke 532]

Notes from today's call...

 

David Thompson: "Bottom line is that government is in massive litigation pressure."

 

Lamberth is full steam ahead.

 

The indication is that both issues before SCOTUS are "being held."  This means they are waiting for resolution in the Seila Law vs CFPB case.  If they were going to deny, they would have already.  If they were going to hear the case, they would have already.  The Seila Law vs CFPB case is being heard March 3rd and decided last week of June.  Then SCOTUS will decide on our case.  This "being held" is not bad for plaintiffs.

 

Tim Pagliara asked David Thompson about settlement... he can't comment on any previous discussions or possible future discussions but said there is massive incentive for government to settle (don't have to pay $125B in cash, NWS not invalidated and dictated by courts so it would be completely out of gov't hands how that is done, etc.).  He said none of the cases will be resolved in gov't favor prior to the election, so unless they want to roll the dice on him being re-elected, they need to settle prior to then.

[Midas79]

What's the next step for Judge Atlas in the Collins case? Issuing summary judgment, or are there other steps before that?

[Guest cherzeca]

Following up on Midas did David discuss taking advantage of the mandate having been issued to judge atlas before DOJ filed cert petition on APA claim to go to trial or summary judgment during the next 6 months while the cert petitions are on hold?  Couldn’t make CC

[allnatural]

I believe he said APA case is proceeding via Judge Atlas and is NOT pending SCOTUS. They are in discussions to move forward. Expects summary judgement later this year after they set the administrative record straight.

[Guest cherzeca]

I believe he said APA case is proceeding via Judge Atlas and is NOT pending SCOTUS. They are in discussions to move forward. Expects summary judgement later this year after they set the administrative record straight.

 

Right. I get that they need to get all discovery from other cases settled before they launch a SJ motion in front of judge atlas. They need all factual questions resolved

[investorG]

Legal appears to be a dud for 2020:  Sweeney and lamberth are 2021-2022+.  bhatti is most likely a loss.  rop is dormant.  Atlas hasn't even started with plenty of delay tactics possible.  The lawyers think the SC is punting on APA during this term.  There's some small chance the Seila ruling in June allows for major remedies but doubtful.

 

It's highly likely nothing materially positive happens until July at the earliest.  If Calabria's position becomes at risk post-Seila, maybe we get some action this summer if the team is still intact and committed to getting things done.  If he's constitutional for 5 years with firing only for cause, then probably nothing material (potential 4th amendment) until post election, either in the lame duck (trump not victorious) or 2021 (trump wins).

 

 

[indythinker85]

The latest from Dick Bove https://www.valuewalk.com/fannie-mae/

[Guest cherzeca]

The latest from Dick Bove https://www.valuewalk.com/fannie-mae/

 

so someone has to say it so let it be me....bove is a jerk well past his prime, if he ever had a prime.  he doesnt understand the GSE litigation, he doesnt understand the GSEs' cash flow and financial merits (moat etc), and he doesnt have a fully funded retirement account, hence he has to post drivel well past his use-by-date. 

 

Here's the deal (quoting Biden LOL):  Collins is live in district court since scotus has put cert petitions on hold.  Mnuchin will face the biggest judgment against the US in its history falling in his lap. wakie up time

[investorG]

The latest from Dick Bove https://www.valuewalk.com/fannie-mae/

 

so someone has to say it so let it be me....bove is a jerk well past his prime, if he ever had a prime.  he doesnt understand the GSE litigation, he doesnt understand the GSEs' cash flow and financial merits (moat etc), and he doesnt have a fully funded retirement account, hence he has to post drivel well past his use-by-date. 

 

Here's the deal (quoting Biden LOL):  Collins is live in district court since scotus has put cert petitions on hold.  Mnuchin will face the biggest judgment against the US in its history falling in his lap. wakie up time

 

while I agree Bove's analysis doesn't always make complete sense, his stock calls have ended up being decent for the most part -- including his last one that if the SC passed on the case the shares would decline.

[investorG]

What's the next step for Judge Atlas in the Collins case? Issuing summary judgment, or are there other steps before that?

 

Probably delay anything material until July when the likely next decision point occurs post-Seila.  That's consistent with the stock price and Calabria's repeated misleading statements on timing of capital rule and especially financial advisors.

[rros]

What's the next step for Judge Atlas in the Collins case? Issuing summary judgment, or are there other steps before that?

 

Probably delay anything material until July when the likely next decision point occurs post-Seila.  That's consistent with the stock price and Calabria's repeated misleading statements on timing of capital rule and especially financial advisors.

 

"... Calabria's repeated misleading statements... "

 

Finally, someone who has noticed. I let go of most of my position -held since 2010- last summer after he flip-flopped. The fact that he reconsidered his views or showed cracks in his stance back then was the last -shockingly disappointing- straw. For me. I kept a few up until recently. But finally accepted the fact that those of us who had to withstand the advent of the NWS may never see justice. What I am left with is both a personal error in judgment -correctly assessing the difficulty of fighting the US government- but also an unpleasant taste for its inner workings. Specially, a leftist administration.

Good luck to everyone.

[Wiggins]

What's the next step for Judge Atlas in the Collins case? Issuing summary judgment, or are there other steps before that?

 

Probably delay anything material until July when the likely next decision point occurs post-Seila.  That's consistent with the stock price and Calabria's repeated misleading statements on timing of capital rule and especially financial advisors.

 

"... Calabria's repeated misleading statements... "

 

Finally, someone who has noticed. I let go of most of my position -held since 2010- last summer after he flip-flopped. The fact that he reconsidered his views or showed cracks in his stance back then was the last -shockingly disappointing- straw. For me. I kept a few up until recently. But finally accepted the fact that those of us who had to withstand the advent of the NWS may never see justice. What I am left with is both a personal error in judgment -correctly assessing the difficulty of fighting the US government- but also an unpleasant taste for its inner workings. Specially, a leftist administration.

Good luck to everyone.

 

rros I take it from your comment that you held high hopes for a political/administrative solution, hence the negative view once Calabria waffled. You sound like you have made up your mind on the whole thesis as if it's all over. My question to you is how do you see the (negative) thesis playing out now? Delay? To me, the preferred have a pretty rock-solid case and the only negative thesis at this point is significant, continued delay coupled with hollowing-out of the GSE (e.g. spinning off CSS, new market competition, new onerous regulations, SIFI-type restrictions, etc). I think a lot of harmful regulations would have to go through Congress though which makes them unlikely.

 

For what it's worth I have always placed a fairly high emphasis on the court cases, which is one of the reasons I have stayed in this investment. Yes justice is slow, but it is inexorable.

[rros]

What's the next step for Judge Atlas in the Collins case? Issuing summary judgment, or are there other steps before that?

 

Probably delay anything material until July when the likely next decision point occurs post-Seila.  That's consistent with the stock price and Calabria's repeated misleading statements on timing of capital rule and especially financial advisors.

 

"... Calabria's repeated misleading statements... "

 

Finally, someone who has noticed. I let go of most of my position -held since 2010- last summer after he flip-flopped. The fact that he reconsidered his views or showed cracks in his stance back then was the last -shockingly disappointing- straw. For me. I kept a few up until recently. But finally accepted the fact that those of us who had to withstand the advent of the NWS may never see justice. What I am left with is both a personal error in judgment -correctly assessing the difficulty of fighting the US government- but also an unpleasant taste for its inner workings. Specially, a leftist administration.

Good luck to everyone.

 

rros I take it from your comment that you held high hopes for a political/administrative solution, hence the negative view once Calabria waffled. You sound like you have made up your mind on the whole thesis as if it's all over. My question to you is how do you see the (negative) thesis playing out now? Delay? To me, the preferred have a pretty rock-solid case and the only negative thesis at this point is significant, continued delay coupled with hollowing-out of the GSE (e.g. spinning off CSS, new market competition, new onerous regulations, SIFI-type restrictions, etc). I think a lot of harmful regulations would have to go through Congress though which makes them unlikely.

 

For what it's worth I have always placed a fairly high emphasis on the court cases, which is one of the reasons I have stayed in this investment. Yes justice is slow, but it is inexorable.

I do not have a positive or negative thesis anymore. And I have not kept close track to most recent events.

 

No, I did not come to the conclusion that "it is all over". I came to the realization that I could use the funds in a better, more predictable way. A way that may suit my emotional needs better, too. With facts I could put my hands on in spite of the perennial volatility of financial markets.

 

Maybe the preferreds are made whole. Maybe shareholders get rewarded by courts. I do not know. I simply stopped being interested. Purely a personal decision.

[Wiggins]

What's the next step for Judge Atlas in the Collins case? Issuing summary judgment, or are there other steps before that?

 

Probably delay anything material until July when the likely next decision point occurs post-Seila.  That's consistent with the stock price and Calabria's repeated misleading statements on timing of capital rule and especially financial advisors.

 

 

"... Calabria's repeated misleading statements... "

 

Finally, someone who has noticed. I let go of most of my position -held since 2010- last summer after he flip-flopped. The fact that he reconsidered his views or showed cracks in his stance back then was the last -shockingly disappointing- straw. For me. I kept a few up until recently. But finally accepted the fact that those of us who had to withstand the advent of the NWS may never see justice. What I am left with is both a personal error in judgment -correctly assessing the difficulty of fighting the US government- but also an unpleasant taste for its inner workings. Specially, a leftist administration.

Good luck to everyone.

 

rros I take it from your comment that you held high hopes for a political/administrative solution, hence the negative view once Calabria waffled. You sound like you have made up your mind on the whole thesis as if it's all over. My question to you is how do you see the (negative) thesis playing out now? Delay? To me, the preferred have a pretty rock-solid case and the only negative thesis at this point is significant, continued delay coupled with hollowing-out of the GSE (e.g. spinning off CSS, new market competition, new onerous regulations, SIFI-type restrictions, etc). I think a lot of harmful regulations would have to go through Congress though which makes them unlikely.

 

For what it's worth I have always placed a fairly high emphasis on the court cases, which is one of the reasons I have stayed in this investment. Yes justice is slow, but it is inexorable.

I do not have a positive or negative thesis anymore. And I have not kept close track to most recent events.

 

No, I did not come to the conclusion that "it is all over". I came to the realization that I could use the funds in a better, more predictable way. A way that may suit my emotional needs better, too. With facts I could put my hands on in spite of the perennial volatility of financial markets.

 

Maybe the preferreds are made whole. Maybe shareholders get rewarded by courts. I do not know. I simply stopped being interested. Purely a personal decision.

 

Thanks for sharing that and good luck for your current investments and henceforward. It's excruciating thinking about what you and what so many investors have gone through. It's such a terrible injustice. Your current position is 100% understandable.

[investorG]

What's the next step for Judge Atlas in the Collins case? Issuing summary judgment, or are there other steps before that?

 

Probably delay anything material until July when the likely next decision point occurs post-Seila.  That's consistent with the stock price and Calabria's repeated misleading statements on timing of capital rule and especially financial advisors.

 

"... Calabria's repeated misleading statements... "

 

Finally, someone who has noticed. I let go of most of my position -held since 2010- last summer after he flip-flopped. The fact that he reconsidered his views or showed cracks in his stance back then was the last -shockingly disappointing- straw. For me. I kept a few up until recently. But finally accepted the fact that those of us who had to withstand the advent of the NWS may never see justice. What I am left with is both a personal error in judgment -correctly assessing the difficulty of fighting the US government- but also an unpleasant taste for its inner workings. Specially, a leftist administration.

Good luck to everyone.

 

in Calabria's defense, he's probably just following instructions from mnuchin and trump.  I view his competency level without interference as far higher than the slow play and misdirection we've seen over the past few months.  the main issue appears to be that trump and mnuchin weren't strong enough to move this forward once the appropriate cover came from the Collins appeals court to simply do the right thing.

[Mephistopheles]

I've owned this for over 5 years. Initially I would try to grasp the legal stuff but as the number of cases kept growing it all now goes over my head. I'm banking on the administration's public comments.

 

My question from 10,000 foot level is. These guys have to know that there is a very real chance Trump is out of office a year from now, right? So whatever they want to do, they need to get it done or set it in motion within 12 months, right? Unless they've given up and plan to kick the can to the next administration, but what's the purpose in that? From public comments they have indicated they want to make a change in the status quo so why kick the can down? What am I missing here?

[Luke 532]

These guys have to know that there is a very real chance Trump is out of office a year from now, right?

 

There's a chance they don't see that as possible.  I'd say it's not very probable, but certainly possible.

[DRValue]

Trump vs. The Also Ran's.

Everyone else is irrelevant.