Wiggins

Probably most of us are aware of that mechanism and that it's still bad. But it's not the same because the money is not actually being spent. That's a huge difference IMO because it shifts the financial incentives. The only way to get the money is to ACT.

Will have to disagree quite a bit since the Trump administration DID stop the NWS spend, and this was after the Democratic FHFA head sucked up two years of time. This was a critical step. He also wrote an important letter to Rand Paul. These acts are far more than any other president has done. Going forward, he would be in his last term and would have no reason to keep the GSEs in conservatorship. His buddies will be lined up holding JPS. I'm not holding my breath but I am holding lots of GSE JPS.

Catalysts: Welcome to Trump trade 2024. The New Hampshire primary is today. I expect Trump to win handily and GSE stock to continue its run. Tomorrow should be another catalyst as it will be the first trading day after Trump won NH, and there will be lots of talk about the inevitability of him winning the Republican primary. Then there will be another catalyst when Nikki Haley drops out of the race. I would be surprised if she does that before the SC primary. After all the primaries and it is inevitable that Trump will be selected, when will there be a pullback or plateau? It has to come at some point. Tim Pagliara has been making a lot of noise about R&R being worked on by Biden who won't want to hand this over to Trump to get credit. Regardless, there is a lot of discussion that either Biden or Trump will be moving the needle soon. Of course, the GSEs are holding a lot more capital now. Maybe even Maria Bartiromo will interview Trump and ask about it, which could be a good catalyst. I'm holding for now.

It's not over. There are a few lawsuits still pending. And there's still the issue of what to do with the GSEs.

All shareholders of Fannie and Freddie preferred, and Freddie common will get paid unless they specifically opted out of this class action suit. I have read that the plaintiffs are only asking for $1.6 billion in damages which would result in a cash payment for about what they're selling for today. I don't know what the jurors will decide and all I know is what I am reading in the newspapers and on Twitter

10 jurors were selected today. Likely they will all be sworn in and one is an alternate, so one will be dismissed if all 10 are there at the time of verdict and 9 will make the decision. This is a civil trial, so the jury does not have to agree unanimously. They just have to reach consensus according to the foreman they will select. Any damages paid to shareholders would be from the GSEs themselves.

There are a lot of sealed motions from defendants in the Lamberth trial. I suspect that they're trying to exclude a lot of damaging emails from Treasury and other government officials, stating they aren't official views. That's just a guess but what else could it be? Hopefully at some point some of this information makes it to the jury and gets released to the public. The ulterior motives we've already seen from officials such as Jim Parrot seem relevant to the plaintiffs' side given the "good faith" portion of the contract breach. I hope we can get some information about the trial as it unfolds. Someone will have to be there taking notes. Anyone that has seen a jury trial up close knows that juries are unpredictable; we have to hope the odds lean heavily toward the plaintiffs. I hope some investors are still monitoring these boards and also doing well otherwise. And I wish everyone good luck. I miss the great analysis that used to happen here and I hope we can get some more discussion going about the trial. This seems a good place to discuss trial matters and updates.

Alive.

Question for Midas or anyone else who has thoughts on this: Can the GSEs issue new stock for a capital raise that is senior to existing JPS? I think existing JPS certificates say no, but the SPS was made possible by HERA. My answer is yes -mainly for the reason that FHFA/Treasury will do whatever the hell they want-, but it could start a whole new round of takings claims. Interested in thoughts on this.

Class certification by Lamberth was underrated. I think this should have been news. There will be a trial in Lamberth's court next year regarding a breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing with respect to stock liquidation preference and dividend rights. I am getting the popcorn ready. How can there not be damages when the Treasury lied and then "siphoned" $300 billion out of the GSEs? In a case like AIG there was no money, but with the GSEs they have of course been highly profitable. I think Lamberth just may be the one to unwind the Treasury's Orwellian tales of greedy hedge funds awaiting a windfall or the Government "rescuing" the GSEs. Any shares bought today have the same rights as all others.

I'm 100% JPS but thinking about taking a common stake in case there's a ruling or announcement causing preferential accumulation of common vs. JPS. So far I have been piling in to the JPS since they're still so ridiculously depressed (e.g. some are still under 10%), but seriously thinking about a common position.

Nice work! I have been thinking we could be setting up for another move up similar to that seen Dec '18 to Jan '19. I think there was heavy tax loss selling in '18 and then investors got back in with a new basis and there was additionally some optimism over releasing the GSEs at that time. Now, especially after the Drumpf letter my thesis is that Dec '21 to Jan '22 will be a repeat.

How is everyone doing? Did anyone else buy post Jun 23rd SCOTUS?

The verbiage of this letter is breathtaking (e.g. "steal the retirement of hardworking Americans"). Any press is good press. This is good press and will get at least some traction in the courts and in the news. Expect court filings soon