Guest cherzeca Posted February 3, 2020 Posted February 3, 2020 Actual news: FHFA hired Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor. Next up: capital rule. https://twitter.com/hannahdlang/status/1224444959173931010 Breaking: FHFA has picked Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser with a $45 million contract as the agency works to develop a roadmap for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship apparently one year at $9.5MM extendable by fhfa. using moelis blueprint as a copy/paste, this will be the easiest $9.5MM ever made on Wall Street.
Luke 532 Posted February 3, 2020 Posted February 3, 2020 Actual news: FHFA hired Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor. Next up: capital rule. https://twitter.com/hannahdlang/status/1224444959173931010 Breaking: FHFA has picked Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser with a $45 million contract as the agency works to develop a roadmap for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship Seems like Treasury pre-screened Houlihan a few months ago... https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-09-04/treasury-discussed-hiring-houlihan-to-advise-on-fannie-freddie?__twitter_impression=true
Luke 532 Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 Interesting... FHFA renames the "Division of Conservatorship" to the "Division of Resolutions" https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Announces-Realignment-of-its-Agency-Structure.aspx
Luke 532 Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 Can someone help me understand the topic on ‘Changes to Capital Standard”? https://groups.google.com/forum/#%21forum/fannie-and-freddie-preferreds I thought you all were projecting zillion common shares for each preferred that I would get in conversion? A trillion common shares for every pref share, Emily, not a zillion. Be realistic.
Luke 532 Posted February 8, 2020 Posted February 8, 2020 "ultimate termination of this litigation" mentioned in today's joint status report.
Midas79 Posted February 8, 2020 Posted February 8, 2020 "ultimate termination of this litigation" mentioned in today's joint status report. I eagerly await Chris's analysis here. For me, this might be the government's last gasp before starting settlement talks, with the government trying to figure out where they stand in case they need political cover for settling.
Guest cherzeca Posted February 8, 2020 Posted February 8, 2020 "ultimate termination of this litigation" mentioned in today's joint status report. I eagerly await Chris's analysis here. For me, this might be the government's last gasp before starting settlement talks, with the government trying to figure out where they stand in case they need political cover for settling. Sweeney needs to be told by the parties that certifying questions for interlocutory appeal is important, and saying that this might be outcome determinative does this and is nothing to fret about. Cooper & Kirk has apparently decided that Ps have a good hand and certifying for appeal whether Ps have a good derivative claim is in its best interest. Sweeney might even certify the shareholder standing question in Wash Fed that she hasn't answered yet. if the strategy is to turn up heat on govt to promote settlement, then certifying an appeal now rather than later moves up the "come to Jesus" fish or cut bait timeline for govt to get off the pot. edit: imagine you are at a poker table and govt says I see you and raise, and Ps say gee thanks, I see you and raise you too. if you have a winning hand, you play it like a winner, and Ps seem to be on this wavelength.
Luke 532 Posted February 9, 2020 Posted February 9, 2020 Updated ACG timeline attached (as of February 3, 2020)...
investorG Posted February 9, 2020 Posted February 9, 2020 Updated ACG timeline attached (as of February 3, 2020)... thanks. no potential 4th amendment until post election, if ever. unfortunately the leaders deemed it too hot for them to handle despite the cover from the Collins appeals court.
Luke 532 Posted February 9, 2020 Posted February 9, 2020 Updated ACG timeline attached (as of February 3, 2020)... thanks. no potential 4th amendment until post election, if ever. That's not what it says.
investorG Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 The Supreme Court still likely has a few weeks left to take the Collins case and complete it this term (by jul1). It's not unreasonable that they should take this case. However if they follow current conventional wisdom and pass for now, we then wait for Seila's result to determine Calabria's likely fate. If Calabria's equivalent wins and is entrenched for the full 5 year term with firing only for cause, then the pressure for rapid action (all things equal) seemingly declines because even if Trump loses there's still time for a potential 4th amendment late this year and then Calabria takes over the plan execution in 2021+. However if Seila decides Calabria is exposed, there's very large risk to shareholders because a potential 4th amendment + consent decree package is possibly reversible by a new admin + FHFA head. Two caveats to this may be: if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria or his deputy can last longer through 2021 than expected due to some technicalities. Given the makeup of the SC are there any good guesses on the Seila outcome? The Fifth circuit seems pretty clear (12-4) that he needs to be fire-able? Obviously people would guess better post the oral arguments.
Luke 532 Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 Dick Bove, fwiw... https://valuewalk.com/fannie-mae/
Guest cherzeca Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 The Supreme Court still likely has a few weeks left to take the Collins case and complete it this term (by jul1). It's not unreasonable that they should take this case. However if they follow current conventional wisdom and pass for now, we then wait for Seila's result to determine Calabria's likely fate. If Calabria's equivalent wins and is entrenched for the full 5 year term with firing only for cause, then the pressure for rapid action (all things equal) seemingly declines because even if Trump loses there's still time for a potential 4th amendment late this year and then Calabria takes over the plan execution in 2021+. However if Seila decides Calabria is exposed, there's very large risk to shareholders because a potential 4th amendment + consent decree package is possibly reversible by a new admin + FHFA head. Two caveats to this may be: if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria or his deputy can last longer through 2021 than expected due to some technicalities. Given the makeup of the SC are there any good guesses on the Seila outcome? The Fifth circuit seems pretty clear (12-4) that he needs to be fire-able? Obviously people would guess better post the oral arguments. your missing the point. you have to understand the read through from seila to collins. rule of law guy will be writing on this soon
james22 Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 ...if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria... Still don't understand why Buffett's name doesn't come up in discussion. Great cover for the administration (can announce with picture of Buffett receiving Presidential Medal of Freedom from Obama), perfect legacy solution/career capstone to Buffet's cash problem.
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 ...if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria... Still don't understand why Buffett's name doesn't come up in discussion. Great cover for the administration (can announce with picture of Buffett receiving Presidential Medal of Freedom from Obama), perfect legacy solution/career capstone to Buffet's cash problem. There were rumors, albeit not discussed on the COB&F boards as far as I know, that Freddie executives were in Omaha back in early November. Probably just for a nice steak dinner and nothing more. :)
investorG Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 The Supreme Court still likely has a few weeks left to take the Collins case and complete it this term (by jul1). It's not unreasonable that they should take this case. However if they follow current conventional wisdom and pass for now, we then wait for Seila's result to determine Calabria's likely fate. If Calabria's equivalent wins and is entrenched for the full 5 year term with firing only for cause, then the pressure for rapid action (all things equal) seemingly declines because even if Trump loses there's still time for a potential 4th amendment late this year and then Calabria takes over the plan execution in 2021+. However if Seila decides Calabria is exposed, there's very large risk to shareholders because a potential 4th amendment + consent decree package is possibly reversible by a new admin + FHFA head. Two caveats to this may be: if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria or his deputy can last longer through 2021 than expected due to some technicalities. Given the makeup of the SC are there any good guesses on the Seila outcome? The Fifth circuit seems pretty clear (12-4) that he needs to be fire-able? Obviously people would guess better post the oral arguments. your missing the point. you have to understand the read through from seila to collins. rule of law guy will be writing on this soon I will look out for it. It's been 3.5 months for Judge Atlas without a peep. Does she wait for the final accept / decline from the SC? Do Senior Judges take longer for action?
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Public offering "neither too little nor too big" according to IMF: I like the "not too big" part, although it's admittedly ambiguous.
DRValue Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Like the sound of that too, although just the right amount is the same as the amount they need... All this talk of 200b spo must be ridiculous when you consider in the history of the universe the largest ipo was, what, 25.6b?
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Like the sound of that too, although just the right amount is the same as the amount they need... All this talk of 200b spo must be ridiculous when you consider in the history of the universe the largest ipo was, what, 25.6b? True, even if they call it what it is (an SPO), 200B would still dwarf the largest which I think was 70B or so...but don't quote me on that number.
DRValue Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Like the sound of that too, although just the right amount is the same as the amount they need... All this talk of 200b spo must be ridiculous when you consider in the history of the universe the largest ipo was, what, 25.6b? True, even if they call it what it is (an SPO), 200B would still dwarf the largest which I think was 70B or so...but don't quote me on that number. Yeah, I've since seen Midas's post too!
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Yeah, I've since seen Midas's post too! :)
Midas79 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Speaking of my Twitter posts, the President's Budget appears to be giving a tell that they want FnF's footprint reduced by artificially increasing g-fees, with the extra proceeds going to Treasury so shareholders wouldn't benefit. https://twitter.com/midas79_/status/1227314350106578946
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Metzner (ACG)... Calabria speaks at Harvard. Capital Rule published by the end of March. #GSEs #housingfinance
Guest cherzeca Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 I would hope that my high degree of expectation is warranted that after the 90 day comment period, after a prior round of fhfa rule promulgation and comment period, we have a workable capital rule that. balances taxpayer protection and capital raising concerns. which would put us at the end of July, when scotus should have decided seila (which I expect to be a big win for GSEs) and set the stage for a come to Jesus negotiation leading up to recap and release
investorG Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 I would hope that my high degree of expectation is warranted that after the 90 day comment period, after a prior round of fhfa rule promulgation and comment period, we have a workable capital rule that. balances taxpayer protection and capital raising concerns. which would put us at the end of July, when scotus should have decided seila (which I expect to be a big win for GSEs) and set the stage for a come to Jesus negotiation leading up to recap and release if that was their intention why would they wait until the peak of election season for a politically risky headline(s) when they could do the same thing now (assuming the SC held Collins)? The only reason I could see is if they successfully cobble together a large private placement at the same time with a broadly respected investor(s), and that deal was not available now. I don't believe the capital rule or seila outcome is a prerequisite for a potential 4th amendment.
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