FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[hardincap]

I strongly encourage GSE investors to read the whole blackrock piece.  I am just a novice here but I view the contents as being very positive for existing preferred shareholders.  Based on this and the price slump I have upped my investment.

 

read tim howard's blog. he basically pooh poohs the whole report

[rros]

I think they are talking both MBS and GSE replacement capital.  However having re-read it about a dozen times it is certainly a bit ambiguous.  Here is the full excerpt:

 

While not unanimous, the preponderance of the policy proposals acknowledge the need for a government guarantee to absorb catastrophic risks in order to ensure continued liquidity.  In addition, the proposals contemplate leveraging the capital markets to absorb credit risk in order to protect the taxpayer.  We commend this approach, and recommend the adoption of the policy that will prove the least disruptive with the greatest ease of execution and fungibility between the current and any future state.  Ultimately, private capital in the mortgage market requires a transparent process that provides certainty and respect for the rights of investors, both in the current framework and in any transition to a future system.

I'll tell you what is not ambiguous... If this comes from Larry Fink, which it does, he firmly believes shareholders were toast in 2008 and further toast in 2012 and should be completely wipe out. He believes hedge funds are vulture speculators of the worst order. On the other hand, he is an Obama man so his report may now have less weight.

 

About the only worrisome fact is the infiltration of Craig Phillips, a blackrock fellow, into Treasury.

[rros]

I strongly encourage GSE investors to read the whole blackrock piece.  I am just a novice here but I view the contents as being very positive for existing preferred shareholders.  Based on this and the price slump I have upped my investment.

 

read tim howard's blog. he basically pooh poohs the whole report

The problem TH has is that he does not manage trillions (literally) like Larry Fink does.

[SnarkyPuppy]

I strongly encourage GSE investors to read the whole blackrock piece.  I am just a novice here but I view the contents as being very positive for existing preferred shareholders.  Based on this and the price slump I have upped my investment.

 

read tim howard's blog. he basically pooh poohs the whole report

The problem TH has is that he does not manage trillions (literally) like Larry Fink does.

 

You also have to read his blog with a grain of salt.  He owns stock from his time as an executive.  I'm not saying he's dishonest, but it's important to always understand incentives.

[investorG]

I think they are talking both MBS and GSE replacement capital.  However having re-read it about a dozen times it is certainly a bit ambiguous.  Here is the full excerpt:

 

While not unanimous, the preponderance of the policy proposals acknowledge the need for a government guarantee to absorb catastrophic risks in order to ensure continued liquidity.  In addition, the proposals contemplate leveraging the capital markets to absorb credit risk in order to protect the taxpayer.  We commend this approach, and recommend the adoption of the policy that will prove the least disruptive with the greatest ease of execution and fungibility between the current and any future state.  Ultimately, private capital in the mortgage market requires a transparent process that provides certainty and respect for the rights of investors, both in the current framework and in any transition to a future system.

I'll tell you what is not ambiguous... If this comes from Larry Fink, which it does, he firmly believes shareholders were toast in 2008 and further toast in 2012 and should be completely wipe out. He believes hedge funds are vulture speculators of the worst order. On the other hand, he is an Obama man so his report may now have less weight.

 

About the only worrisome fact is the infiltration of Craig Phillips, a blackrock fellow, into Treasury.

 

big difference between 08 and 12, and fink is smart enough to know it.  in 08 yes they were toast bc they were capitalized at virtually nothing when the credit provision costs exploded.  however the govt chose to keep them alive due to their own self-interest, not due to pity for shareholders.  and then in 12 the GSEs were chugging along ok, even though they had a long road still ahead of them.  it was either a crime or morally incomprehensible to change the deal terms and initiate the sweep.

 

imo it's fine for all the various constituencies to state their arguments for reform, whether they are pro or anti GSE.  however the media and the decision makers need an urgency for fairness, whereby all parties' rights are respected.

[orthopa]

I strongly encourage GSE investors to read the whole blackrock piece.  I am just a novice here but I view the contents as being very positive for existing preferred shareholders.  Based on this and the price slump I have upped my investment.

 

"Ultimately, private capital in the mortgage market requires a transparent process that provides certainty and respect for the rights of investors, both in the current framework and in any transition to a future system."

 

?  I interpret the language in the Blackrock proposal as discussing MBS investors, not GSE equity investors.

 

Of course, as soon as ones interest is affected its ok to extol the rights of shareholders/stakeholders. No coincidence then Blackrock has the position they do in the white paper.  That being said I think its probably best Mnuchin tries to respect rights for all shareholders/stakeholders. The common for example may get very unfavorable terms but not totally excluded. This would have the effect to quell ongoing lawsuits IMO. Big risk to reform would be a lawsuit requiring compensation years down the road.

 

Again for my fellow conspiracy theorists Paulson dismisses the lawsuits and leans on a favorable solution from Mnuchin for shareholders. For lack of better reason or knowledge I still think its better to align myself with an Economic Adviser to the president and worry less about the situation as a result.  As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

[Luke 532]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

[no_free_lunch]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

 

I don't look at these type of articles as having any impact on policy makers directly.  However it does provide political support for their agenda since blackrock isn't a fannie shareholder.  As long as Mnuchin picks one of the middle ground approaches favored by blackrock he can avoid "recap and release", continue to provide low rate mortgages and avoid all but catastrophic risk to tax-payers.  Oh and perhaps he can also save fannie preferred holders at the same time by swapping their equity to the new entities.

[hardincap]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

 

when has he started interviews that way? i know he said that at his conf hearing but im not aware of any interviews.

 

the fact that he hired craig philips and assigned him to housing reform shows he really is exploring all options and isnt wedded to any one path

[Luke 532]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

 

when has he started interviews that way? i know he said that at his conf hearing but im not aware of any interviews.

 

the fact that he hired craig philips and assigned him to housing reform shows he really is exploring all options and isnt wedded to any one path

 

In multiple interviews he has. Just look at any videos I've posted of him since November and he makes a point to mention it the majority of the time if asked about GSE's.

[hardincap]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

 

when has he started interviews that way? i know he said that at his conf hearing but im not aware of any interviews.

 

the fact that he hired craig philips and assigned him to housing reform shows he really is exploring all options and isnt wedded to any one path

 

In multiple interviews he has. Just look at any videos I've posted of him since November and he makes a point to mention it the majority of the time if asked about GSE's.

 

out of 5 interviews i heard him say this once--"its something i know alot about..."--1/5 is far from "every interview"

 

if he really didnt need/want help figuring out what to do, why hire craig philips? purely for optics?

[Luke 532]

 

out of 5 interviews i heard him say this once--"its something i know alot about..."--1/5 is far from "every interview"

 

if he really didnt need/want help figuring out what to do, why hire craig philips? purely for optics?

 

I'll go through the videos again of where he said it and repost.

 

Perhaps he hired him to be thorough eventhough he knows what he wants to do.  And, yes, it might be of interest to him to benefit those he puts in power if they present or find something to him that can be implemented and not alter his plan.

[Luke 532]

 

out of 5 interviews i heard him say this once--"its something i know alot about..."--1/5 is far from "every interview"

 

if he really didnt need/want help figuring out what to do, why hire craig philips? purely for optics?

 

I'll go through the videos again of where he said it and repost.

 

Perhaps he hired him to be thorough eventhough he knows what he wants to do.  And, yes, it might be of interest to him to benefit those he puts in power if they present or find something to him that can be implemented and not alter his plan.

 

I just searched for 20 minutes and didn't find multiple interviews where he stated his expertise, but I could swear he has a few times after confirmation hearings.  I've watched pretty much everything he says over the past 6 months but I didn't save everything I've watched. But perhaps I'm wrong on him stating his expertise repeatedly.

[Guest cherzeca]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

 

when has he started interviews that way? i know he said that at his conf hearing but im not aware of any interviews.

 

the fact that he hired craig philips and assigned him to housing reform shows he really is exploring all options and isnt wedded to any one path

 

phillips knows mbs, and he was head of blackrock advisory...meaning, he is an agent not principal.  mnuchin is the principal here

[Desert_Rat]

I strongly encourage GSE investors to read the whole blackrock piece.  I am just a novice here but I view the contents as being very positive for existing preferred shareholders.  Based on this and the price slump I have upped my investment.

 

"Ultimately, private capital in the mortgage market requires a transparent process that provides certainty and respect for the rights of investors, both in the current framework and in any transition to a future system."

 

?  I interpret the language in the Blackrock proposal as discussing MBS investors, not GSE equity investors.

 

Of course, as soon as ones interest is affected its ok to extol the rights of shareholders/stakeholders. No coincidence then Blackrock has the position they do in the white paper.  That being said I think its probably best Mnuchin tries to respect rights for all shareholders/stakeholders. The common for example may get very unfavorable terms but not totally excluded. This would have the effect to quell ongoing lawsuits IMO. Big risk to reform would be a lawsuit requiring compensation years down the road.

 

Again for my fellow conspiracy theorists Paulson dismisses the lawsuits and leans on a favorable solution from Mnuchin for shareholders. For lack of better reason or knowledge I still think its better to align myself with an Economic Adviser to the president and worry less about the situation as a result.  As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

Repeated and accentuated.

[Desert_Rat]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

 

when has he started interviews that way? i know he said that at his conf hearing but im not aware of any interviews.

 

the fact that he hired craig philips and assigned him to housing reform shows he really is exploring all options and isnt wedded to any one path

 

No it doesn't. All it means is he's confidant Phillips knows his shit and can be helpful.

[rros]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

 

when has he started interviews that way? i know he said that at his conf hearing but im not aware of any interviews.

 

the fact that he hired craig philips and assigned him to housing reform shows he really is exploring all options and isnt wedded to any one path

 

No it doesn't. All it means is he's confidant Phillips knows his shit and can be helpful.

Although it is all mere speculation there may be something to that.

 

Originally, when Mnuchin had more freedom and spontaneity to speak his mind he always referred to the GSEs issue as "a fix". How to fix them or even as a "bipartisan fix". I interpreted this as re-regulating them not privatizing them (which may take the government out of the picture completely). If he continues to believe a public-private partnership is the right model, as part of a fix Craig Phillips may be a perfect piece in the puzzle. Again, pure speculation. Since the last share prices run, Mnuchin has abandoned the word fix and replaced it with "housing finance reform". Not sure if he decided to hide his cards to when the moment is right or if there has been a fundamental change.

[muscleman]

https://www.infowars.com/judicial-watch-court-rules-state-department-must-release-clinton-emails-detailing-obama-response-to-benghazi/

 

It looks like the DOJ is put on auto-pilot and the lawyers are still defending Hillary for Bengazi. Same thing is happening with FnF cases.

Does anyone know why? Is Jeff Sessions not doing his job or are there too many old Obama era employees trying to defraud Jeff Session and still working for Obama?

 

I guess we will know by May 20th how many of the 11k documents will be removed from executive privilege. I guess the number could be small.

[Luke 532]

 

Although it is all mere speculation there may be something to that.

 

Originally, when Mnuchin had more freedom and spontaneity to speak his mind he always referred to the GSEs issue as "a fix". How to fix them or even as a "bipartisan fix". I interpreted this as re-regulating them not privatizing them (which may take the government out of the picture completely). If he continues to believe a public-private partnership is the right model, as part of a fix Craig Phillips may be a perfect piece in the puzzle. Again, pure speculation. Since the last share prices run, Mnuchin has abandoned the word fix and replaced it with "housing finance reform". Not sure if he decided to hide his cards to when the moment is right or if there has been a fundamental change.

 

It seems he's still using both fix and housing reform terms, but I don't see much difference between the terms. Here's an interview from 2 weeks ago where he says fix, and earlier in interview he said housing reform...

Starts around 14:20 mark... https://www.pscp.tv/w/1mnGeEMpZpAGX

I may have missed a few words here and there as I typed this while listening...

 

Interviewer: "Have you talked with Ben Carson on those plans?"

Mnuchin: "Absolutely.  We are going to work very closely with him.  Although the major focus is on Fannie Freddie we are concerned with the growth of FHA loans. And we want to be very careful in fixing Fannie Freddie that we don't create a bigger problem at FHA.  Whatever the solution we're not going to push down on this and pops up on the other side of FHA.  So we're looking at this and working with HUD on comprehensive housing issues to make sure we have liquidity and we have safety."

[Desert_Rat]

As mentioned above all of these white papers maybe completely meaningless with Mnunchin knowing exactly what will happen already just going through the motions.

 

I believe this is highly likely. After all, one of the first things Mnuchin starts every interview with is "I've followed these companies closely for 30 years..."  He might as well say, I'm an expert and don't need help on what to do here but I'm a politician now so I might as well make people think they have input so they can tell their constituents they were involved in the outcome.

 

when has he started interviews that way? i know he said that at his conf hearing but im not aware of any interviews.

 

the fact that he hired craig philips and assigned him to housing reform shows he really is exploring all options and isnt wedded to any one path

 

No it doesn't. All it means is he's confidant Phillips knows his shit and can be helpful.

Although it is all mere speculation there may be something to that.

 

Originally, when Mnuchin had more freedom and spontaneity to speak his mind he always referred to the GSEs issue as "a fix". How to fix them or even as a "bipartisan fix". I interpreted this as re-regulating them not privatizing them (which may take the government out of the picture completely). If he continues to believe a public-private partnership is the right model, as part of a fix Craig Phillips may be a perfect piece in the puzzle. Again, pure speculation. Since the last share prices run, Mnuchin has abandoned the word fix and replaced it with "housing finance reform". Not sure if he decided to hide his cards to when the moment is right or if there has been a fundamental change.

 

i like how Howard goes into how we should not try deciphering what Mnuchin says because he has to be PC as honcho.

[Luke 532]

Latest from "Rule of Law Guy"

Fannie And Freddie: The Net Worth Sweep And FHFA's Next Big Problem With Delaware Law

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4071009-fannie-freddie-net-worth-sweep-fhfas-next-big-problem-delaware-law?app=1&auth_param=c78o:1ch3djj:a89883b965abd9e070c6c14e5e1abcd9&uprof=44

[Desert_Rat]

One has to hope that just one of these cases being ruled in our favor will set the gears of freedom into motion.

[SnarkyPuppy]

Very curious if some of you can humor me-

 

If Berkowitz, Paulson (I think he only holds a small position now, saw a recent fund filing and it was 3% of the specific fund), and Ackman were not in this investment, would you still be holding the preferreds?

 

There is no question that it's an input into my decision to hold. 

[muscleman]

Very curious if some of you can humor me-

 

If Berkowitz, Paulson (I think he only holds a small position now, saw a recent fund filing and it was 3% of the specific fund), and Ackman were not in this investment, would you still be holding the preferreds?

 

There is no question that it's an input into my decision to hold.

 

Could you please show me the Paulson filings?

 

 

 

[muscleman]

Actually I'd prefer that Ackman is not in. He has performed so many Jinx on a number of stocks he owns, just like his buddy Witney Tilden.

 

In other words, my preference would be solid legal cases driven by other names but not ackman