FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[orthopa]

Well looks like today is the day, unless it gets pushed to Monday to really test everyone's patience.  :o

[Guest cherzeca]

Well looks like today is the day, unless it gets pushed to Monday to really test everyone's patience.  :o

 

assuming Mnuchin celebrates jewish high holy days, today is the day.  unless the deep state at WH scores another victory

[Midas79]

Well looks like today is the day, unless it gets pushed to Monday to really test everyone's patience.  :o

 

assuming Mnuchin celebrates jewish high holy days, today is the day.  unless the deep state at WH scores another victory

 

Unlikely as it is, is there anything preventing them from releasing news about a letter agreement over the weekend or even later on? All that matters is that it is signed before the end of the day on the 30th, not that the public is told about it.

 

I know I'm grasping at straws here, though. There really is no reason to wait this long if this is really what they're going to do.

[Cardboard]

Hmmm, interesting trading in both stocks and preferreds on a really bad afternoon for the market and Trump looking into some trouble.

[Luke 532]

Attached...

[ValueMaven]

old news ... pointless to post this

 

no update to NWS which is extremely disappointing

[Luke 532]

old news ... pointless to post this

 

no update to NWS which is extremely disappointing

 

Was this from a previous Sunday? If so, my mistake. If not, then perhaps something leaked to WSJ.

[DRValue]

old news ... pointless to post this

 

no update to NWS which is extremely disappointing

 

Was this from a previous Sunday? If so, my mistake. If not, then perhaps something leaked to WSJ.

 

Yeah last Sunday Luke. Not to worry.

[Luke 532]

old news ... pointless to post this

 

no update to NWS which is extremely disappointing

 

Was this from a previous Sunday? If so, my mistake. If not, then perhaps something leaked to WSJ.

 

Yeah last Sunday Luke. Not to worry.

 

Doh! Sorry, y'all.

[investorG]

at this late stage with no news, the sweep is very likely going through. 

 

any guesses on whether this is a technical delay -- they wanted 1 more from 2q earnings -- or something more problematic like a change in direction from any recent news on the legal or political front?

 

thank you.

[Luke 532]

Fannie, Freddie Permitted to Boost Capital Cushions by Billions

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/fannie-freddie-permitted-to-boost-capital-cushions-by-billions

 

    -Fannie allowed to hold $25 bln, and Freddie can retain $20 bln

    -Treasury, FHFA announcement part of effort to end U.S. control

 

[Cardboard]

Glad that I bought some on Friday! It may not amount to a great pop but, the train is finally leaving the station.

[Luke 532]

Fannie, Freddie Permitted to Boost Capital Cushions by Billions

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/fannie-freddie-permitted-to-boost-capital-cushions-by-billions

 

    -Fannie allowed to hold $25 bln, and Freddie can retain $20 bln

    -Treasury, FHFA announcement part of effort to end U.S. control

 

For those that want a link to FHFA's press release:

https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Statement-from-FHFA-Director-Mark-Calabria-on-Letter-Agreement-with-Treasury-to-Increase-Fannie-Freddie-Capital-Retention.aspx

“The Enterprises are leveraged nearly 1,000-to-one, ensuring they would fail during an economic downturn – exposing taxpayers once again. This letter agreement between Treasury and FHFA, which allows the Enterprises to retain capital of up to $45 billion combined, is an important milestone on the path to reform,” said FHFA Director Mark Calabria. “FHFA commits to working with Treasury in the coming months to amend the share agreements and further advance broader housing finance reform. These reform goals include limiting the government’s role in housing finance, increasing marketplace competition, focusing on affordable housing, and sustainable homeownership. The status quo is not an option. Now is the time to act.”

[orthopa]

Finally the day has come. The NWS effectively over! Now I'm inpatient for the final PSPA.  ;D

 

No question IMO this gets done in the end. Inertia is the greatest force in the universe as cherzeca has said. Now just a waiting game to the ultimate outcome.

[allnatural]

Some interesting tidbits from the press releases:

 

Calabria on urgency:"The status quo is not an option. Now is the time to act.”

 

Mnuchin on an additional PSPA amendment + RECAP: Treasury and each of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also agreed to negotiate an additional amendment to the PSPAs that would further enhance taxpayer protections by adopting covenants that are broadly consistent with the recommendations for administrative reforms contained in the Plan.

 

The Plan also recommended that Treasury and FHFA develop recapitalization plans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after identifying and assessing the full range of strategic options. Subsequent amendments to the PSPAs may be appropriate to facilitate the implementation of any eventual recapitalization plans.

 

I think Ben Elliot @ bloomberg intelligence nailed it, "We think it paves the way for a robust deal settling shareholder litigation and eliminating Treasury's senior preferred stake"

 

The incoming PSPA amendment should formally kills the NWS, deal with the senior pfds, finalize the commitment line / fee, and settle w/ shareholders.

[Cox022]

 

 

For those that want a link to FHFA's press release:

https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Statement-from-FHFA-Director-Mark-Calabria-on-Letter-Agreement-with-Treasury-to-Increase-Fannie-Freddie-Capital-Retention.aspx

 

Referring to the Fannie Mae letter agreement text in above link...

 

Does part III refer to a future amendment to the PSPA?...The big one we are all looking forward to?  If so, I wonder why this language was put into this letter agreement; any thoughts on that?

[allnatural]

That's exactly what it's referring to.. a PSPA amendment coming soon.

 

 

 

For those that want a link to FHFA's press release:

https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Statement-from-FHFA-Director-Mark-Calabria-on-Letter-Agreement-with-Treasury-to-Increase-Fannie-Freddie-Capital-Retention.aspx

 

Referring to the Fannie Mae letter agreement text in above link...

 

Does part III refer to a future amendment to the PSPA?...The big one we are all looking forward to?  If so, I wonder why this language was put into this letter agreement; any thoughts on that?

[Luke 532]

The incoming PSPA amendment should formally kills the NWS, deal with the senior pfds, finalize the commitment line / fee, and settle w/ shareholders.

 

What does everybody think the odds are of this getting done in the month of October?  Thanks in advance for replies.

[allnatural]

Close to zero? This is most likely a year end event, possibly slips into Q1.

 

The incoming PSPA amendment should formally kills the NWS, deal with the senior pfds, finalize the commitment line / fee, and settle w/ shareholders.

 

What does everybody think the odds are of this getting done in the month of October?  Thanks in advance for replies.

[Wiggins]

A SCOTUS decision would be helpful in sorting out the constitutional issues as well as confirming and putting guardrails on the APA malfeasance upon which the 5th circuit en banc so eloquently ruled. No matter what Mnuchin does, there will be uncertainty for investors until all that is settled. The only thing that can be settled by the end of the year is SCOTUS just taking the case. But methinks Mnuchin has to factor all that in including a likely final SCOTUS ruling before any negiotiation is settled. I'm not saying Mnuchin will wait, just that he has a lot to consider.

 

The incoming PSPA amendment should formally kills the NWS, deal with the senior pfds, finalize the commitment line / fee, and settle w/ shareholders.

 

What does everybody think the odds are of this getting done in the month of October?  Thanks in advance for replies.

[Cardboard]

Stocks up 3 to 4% but, most traded preferreds down 2%...

 

I wonder what is the message? I mean if it is more time than expected then both should be down.

 

Or it is just that the preferreds moved up on Friday and not the stocks?

 

Is this another one of these algo manipulative thing to sell the news and then grab more at a cheaper price? Price action definitely appears screwed up nowadays as Druckenmiller has observed.

[DRValue]

So the next potential catalyst is the capital rule, followed by pspa amendment and settlement within the next year.

 

So we're looking at another 12 months before any significant share price appreciation.

 

Obviously pspa amendment can happen any time but does anyone see this going any other way?

[Fat Pitch]

Anyone getting the feeling common will get all the upside while jr prefs are only capped at par? The way the securities are trading seems to acknowledge this possible outcome.

[Guest cherzeca]

@allnatural

 

do you have link to ben Elliot Bloomberg quote or was that all there was?

[Guest cherzeca]

seems to me that the GSEs should be retaining investment bankers if they are charged with coming up with recap plans...which means FHFA and treasury should as well.  I would be curious to see how soon that occurs