Am I the only one here who's had a rubbish first Half of the year?

[frommi]

21 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The question that comes to mind is, based on current and projected earnings of some of these semi stocks, why shouldn't they trade at current prices?

Because there is no moat protecting these earnings. Barely any semi has a true moat. And the revenue is not recurring, when enough datacenters are built (and because chips are not the only bottleneck) the demand for chips will just stop, as it always has in history. Its a cyclical industry.

[Xerxes]

Closing the book on first half of 2026. Overall lousy compared to market index. Oh well ….

 

2026 H1 => 5.7%
2025 => 24.38%
2024 => 36.96%
2023 => 24.81%
2022 => -11.48%
2021 => 20.09%
2020 => 11.36%

 

2020-25 CAGR stands at 21%. 

 

 

 

S&P500 had a YTD gain of 10% in the same period in USD terms, double that of my gain in YTD.

[thowed]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Am I the only one who's completely indifferent to anything that occurs in such a short time frame?

 

Ha - I don't think so - there are lots of tough people on here.

 

I'm completely aware of the ridiculousness of it, it's a weakness on my part, but it's been very cheering to grumble about it, and hear that I'm not the only person here who has underperformed.

[73 Reds]

15 minutes ago, frommi said:

Because there is no moat protecting these earnings. Barely any semi has a true moat. And the revenue is not recurring, when enough datacenters are built (and because chips are not the only bottleneck) the demand for chips will just stop, as it always has in history. Its a cyclical industry.

Don't most companies have little or no moat and/or operate in cyclical industries?  In the mean time, they are printing money hand over fist with no end in sight.  Who knows how long it lasts but earnings go straight to the balance sheet.  

[Gamecock-YT]

20 hours ago, thowed said:

Decent chunk of FFH, decent chunk of CSU & subsidiaries, TVK (unfortunate situation) and not trimming enough Gold & Royalties.  Recently buying Exchanges as they've continued to go down.  Not seeing the switch up at the end of March.  Ooof.

 

"You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform."

 

Howard Marks is 100% right on that. To beat the market, your portfolio has to look different. David Swensen famously called this the "acceptance of uncomfortably idiosyncratic portfolios, which frequently appear downright imprudent in the eyes of conventional wisdom." Even on COBF, the herd mentality is real. Those are pretty bandwagon stocks to pick. It’s probably not a coincidence that the highest returns have been what only 1–2 people picked, not the ones where 5–6 people piled in.

 

But six months is still too short to say if you are right or wrong. A half-year is a blink of an eye, and it is nowhere near enough time for a real structural value thesis to play out. At least you can hold yourself accountable after a year, although the biggest mouths on here seem to conveniently not hold themselves to account even then.

[frommi]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Don't most companies have little or no moat and/or operate in cyclical industries?  In the mean time, they are printing money hand over fist with no end in sight.  Who knows how long it lasts but earnings go straight to the balance sheet.  

No? When you look at the current trillion dollar companies without Tesla/NVDA, you will find strong moats and recurring revenue.

[73 Reds]

Just now, frommi said:

No? When you look at the current trillion dollar companies without Tesla/NVDA, you will find strong moats and recurring revenue.

OK, but companies that earn enough billions while the getting is good may wind up being trillion dollar companies without any moat at all.    

[frommi]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

OK, but companies that earn enough billions while the getting is good may wind up being trillion dollar companies without any moat at all.    

But for how long when the revenue is not sustainable? 

[73 Reds]

Just now, frommi said:

But for how long when the revenue is not sustainable? 

As I said before, who knows?  Better question is when does it end?  My guess is we are much closer to the beginning than the end.  Mind you, I'm, not talking my book.  Only stock I own that is participating are long held shares of AMAT in my retirement account and my kids' investment accounts acquired more than 10 years ago when the stock traded at $16/share.

[thowed]

20 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:

Even on COBF, the herd mentality is real. Those are pretty bandwagon stocks to pick.

 

Yeah, absolutely.  Though you could also argue that if we hope that the average person here is 'above-average', it's not unreasonable to have some consensus CoBF stocks, which hopefully over the longer-term will compound (as they have done historically).

 

Part of the problem (not such a bad one...) is that a reason these have become material positions is because they've gone up a lot in the past.  And so then the really tough part happens - do you trim or sell, or is that a dumb thing to do if the business is doing OK?  I still don't know.

 

And yes, six months is nothing.  This topic was meant to be reasonably light-hearted, just a grumble and acknowledgement that even though I know all the rational arguments, sometimes I still struggle with it.  And I find it particularly frustrating when the 'good businesses' I own (I hope!) are underperforming while one or two sectors are rocketing up, backed by a ton of retail speculators using leverage!  I'm jealous!

[DooDiligence]

45 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:

"You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform."

 

Howard Marks is 100% right on that. To beat the market, your portfolio has to look different. David Swensen famously called this the "acceptance of uncomfortably idiosyncratic portfolios, which frequently appear downright imprudent in the eyes of conventional wisdom." Even on COBF, the herd mentality is real. Those are pretty bandwagon stocks to pick. It’s probably not a coincidence that the highest returns have been what only 1–2 people picked, not the ones where 5–6 people piled in.

 

But six months is still too short to say if you are right or wrong. A half-year is a blink of an eye, and it is nowhere near enough time for a real structural value thesis to play out. At least you can hold yourself accountable after a year, although the biggest mouths on here seem to conveniently not hold themselves to account even then.

 

I thought I was the only one here with an "uncomfortably idiosyncratic portfolio".

Somehow, I remain relatively comfortable with this short term underperformance.

Oddly enough, days like today my portfolio frequently does the opposite of the market  1.5ish% 

[Gamecock-YT]

50 minutes ago, thowed said:

 

Yeah, absolutely.  Though you could also argue that if we hope that the average person here is 'above-average', it's not unreasonable to have some consensus CoBF stocks, which hopefully over the longer-term will compound (as they have done historically).

 

Part of the problem (not such a bad one...) is that a reason these have become material positions is because they've gone up a lot in the past.  And so then the really tough part happens - do you trim or sell, or is that a dumb thing to do if the business is doing OK?  I still don't know.

 

And yes, six months is nothing.  This topic was meant to be reasonably light-hearted, just a grumble and acknowledgement that even though I know all the rational arguments, sometimes I still struggle with it.  And I find it particularly frustrating when the 'good businesses' I own (I hope!) are underperforming while one or two sectors are rocketing up, backed by a ton of retail speculators using leverage!  I'm jealous!

 

 

The idea that the consensus here is safe because the average member is 'above-average' is the ultimate behavioral trap. Look at the annual COBF returns thread, it’s a perfect bell curve every single year. Half the forum underperforms the other half, no matter how smart everyone is. A crowded trade is still a crowded trade, even if the crowd has a high IQ.

 

Of course, that bell curve only captures the people who actually choose to post. The year-end thread always seems to be a lot quieter.