Restaurant stocks (MCD, PTLO, WEN, CAVA, CMG, etc)

[ratiman]

It's hard to talk about one restaurant stock without talking about the whole group and consumer trends so I wanted to create a thread for the easiest "know what you own" category of stocks. 

 

Here is a summary of recent trends 

 

[gfp]

Steak n Shake

 

Q1 2026 +10%

2025 FY +10.2%

2024 FY +6.4%

 

Edited May 10 by gfp

[aesophawk]

I think the UK chains are better opportunities. I own LON DOM, but GRG also looks reasonable here.  

[ratiman]

Some more context. The Chilis results are from the Triple Dipper, a sub-$20 triple appetizer plate. To me the Starbucks and Dutch Bros results stick out - Americans are really into drink customization / experimentation these days. McD's is rolling out new energy drinks and Monster just had a . . . huge quarter. 

 

Edited May 10 by ratiman

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, ratiman said:

Some more context. The Chilis results are from the Triple Dipper, a sub-$20 triple appetizer plate. To me the Starbucks and Dutch Bros results stick out - Americans are really into drink customization / experimentation these days. McD's is rolling out new energy drinks and Monster just had a . . . huge quarter. 

 

 

Unfortunately, same store sales in isolation isn't particularly useful...it's just like looking at growth in revenue alone.  A lot of restaurants will increase SSS with value deals, but the value deals actually eat into margins, especially for the franchisees.  So you boost revenue at the expense of profits. 

 

Like any business, there are only a few ways owners can generate efficiencies from non-fixed expenses...ultimately, many restaurants in the industry are hamstrung by their major fixed costs...salaries, lease/rent costs, food costs, etc.  Very little room to tweak fixed costs...especially for franchisees who have little control on franchise fees, menu items, minimum staffing, etc.  Cheers!

[tnathan]

Look at starbucks gross margins trend recently ... idk what the market likes about that!

[ratiman]

I was doing some field research (went to McDonalds) and checked out the Dr Pepper Dirty Soda. It turns out a dirty soda is just a regular soda with syrup and some foam on top. If soda is not sugary enough for you, get a dirty soda. How is this even a real thing, it was 500 calories for a small cup, basically the same as a milkshake with whipped cream. I think the Mormons invented it but Mormons live healthy and splurge once in a while on Crumbl cookies or Dutch Bros milkshakes. This is not a sustainable trend, nobody can ingest this much sugar on a regular basis. 

[dwy000]

On 5/15/2026 at 8:47 AM, ratiman said:

I was doing some field research (went to McDonalds) and checked out the Dr Pepper Dirty Soda. It turns out a dirty soda is just a regular soda with syrup and some foam on top. If soda is not sugary enough for you, get a dirty soda. How is this even a real thing, it was 500 calories for a small cup, basically the same as a milkshake with whipped cream. I think the Mormons invented it but Mormons live healthy and splurge once in a while on Crumbl cookies or Dutch Bros milkshakes. This is not a sustainable trend, nobody can ingest this much sugar on a regular basis. 

Have you traveled thru many states?  In many that would be the diet option!

[ratiman]

Dutch Bros is facing some fierce competition in Texas and the south. This might explain Dutch Bros margin problems last quarter. I don't think one restaurant category has ever seen this much capital deployed as quickly. 

Edited May 18 by ratiman

[LC]

Wow I didn't realize there was that much competition. I assume they're all eating Starbucks' lunch? 

[ratiman]

SBUX SSS were pretty good at 7% but tnathan above seems to think SBUX is also facing margin pressure. I have never understood Starbucks, total mystery to me why it is popular but I am not their target customer. 

[ratiman]

CAVA results came in strong with 10% SSS. Looks like the $20 lunch havers are still going strong, 2nd quarter also running at 10%. CAVA looks like the strongest of the restaurant stocks.