Asymmetric ideas (Merger Arb, Spin Offs, Turnarounds, Activist, Tender/Repuchase, Special Div, etc)

[Rainier]

I thought I would create a thread for special situations. Please post if you have any that seem interesting. Below are some of the ones I am following:

 

• LQDA (Liquidia) - Biotech with a pending lawsuit that is suppressing the stock price. Very deep analysis in the LQDA thread. Thanks to @whatstheofficerproblem

 

• CPAC (Cementos Pacasmayo) - Peruvian law requires Holcim to bid for the remainder of the company in the near future. Thanks to @Marco Van Basten

 

• AIRG (Airgain) - Timothy O'Connell has taken an activist position

 

• GDOT  (Green Dot) - Currently a bank with a fintech component inside. Fintech is in the process of going private and (assuming this all goes through) GDOT shareholders will receive $8.11/share for that.  The real value should be in the low basis in the remaining publicly traded BaaS focused bank. The primary risk here is that the transaction is pending regulatory approval. There is a recently started thread and thanks to @wabuffo

 

• MTYFF (MTY Food Group) - Undergoing a strategic review. I can't remember exactly who was posting about this. Maybe @moatrep?

 

• WBD (Warner / Skydance merger) - I am not touching this with a ten foot pole, but I did make a very good return on a decently sized position in Netflix when they were the initial winner and tanked earlier this year.

 

Anyone know of other situations?

[moatrep]

@whatstheofficerproblem

You can add INBX from officer. If their new drug works it may be worth 8b. Current market cap 1.8b. And the other drugs may justify that market cap alone. Still all of them are on early phases, but the one that gives the asymmetry will report some results this month. Please officer correct me if something wrong.

 

I'm heavy on MTY, but I think the idea is originally from @frommi

 

Edited May 6 by moatrep

[Lollapalooza]

$KPG - forced seller. CEO hit with margin call on $64m in pledged shares (link). 

$Lufax - convertible bond exercise period between April 30th till Oct 8th at 4.64$/ADR for 24% shares outstanding.

Edited May 6 by Lollapalooza

[whatstheofficerproblem]

23 minutes ago, moatrep said:

Please officer correct me if something wrong

 

You nailed it. 109 alone is worth ~$10B, 106 would add onto that and I expect the data release to be this week or next. Don't have a line to management or analysts here, but guess would be in best interests to strike while iron is hot. Two successful drugs would imply they have a 'platform' and platforms esp in cancer trade at retarded premium even when the underlying drug is shit as you have seen with a few other names discussed on the forum.

[frommi]

You can add DCC plc
writeup: https://valueandopportunity.com/2026/05/06/dcc-interesting-special-situation-following-kkr-potential-buyout-offer-at-58-gbp/

[Longnose]

IMO many software names are asymmetric right now. If you don't believe that AI is gonna crush software.

 

which I dont.

 

 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

Has he disclosed how much McDonald’s franchises account for their revenue? I’ve seen around 10% playing around with AI. 

On 5/6/2026 at 5:58 PM, Lollapalooza said:

 

$KPG - forced seller. CEO hit with margin call on $64m in pledged shares (link). 

[ranimo]

BHF - agreed to be acquired @ $70/share, currently at 62.79

[Lollapalooza]

On 5/21/2026 at 4:49 PM, Whensthepaintdry? said:

Has he disclosed how much McDonald’s franchises account for their revenue? I’ve seen around 10% playing around with AI. 

 

In Australia, KPG seems to have approximately 20% of the McDonald's franchisor market, and it accounts for nearly 10% revenue of their US firms. 

 

Transcript Kelly Partners Group Holdings FY2025 Full Year Results Presentation

"We now have more than 8% of McDonald's franchised stores as clients in our US firms. In fact, we've got more McDonald's stores than exist in Australia, which is really exciting. We're now at a core size in the US where the business has its own flywheel and can start to grow on itself and compound we're larger in the US today than we were when we IPOed the business in 2017.

 

"There's still a lot left in what we're doing. Tristan's asked a question about other firms with a strong base of quick service restaurants hold any priority for acquisitions? No, we're very focused on the McDonald's piece. We have about 20% of the franchisor market in Australia, nearly 10% here. Speaker 1 (00:47:03): We have genuine insight and expertise and there's enough in 120 countries with that system to stay very focused. We bought into the kudos network. It has 60 firms in 48 countries and it doesn't take it greatly to imagine that we might get many of those firms to join us. The first one has joined us on a 51 49 basis in Ireland and that we will get after the McDonald's business in each of those markets as well."

Edited Sunday at 11:55 AM by Lollapalooza