What's your read on the economy in late 2025?

[tede02]

What's your read on the economy given a lot of mixed data? Equity markets have been hot in 2025. But oil prices, the labor market, manufacturing and even big retailers suggest underlying softness. Are lofty asset prices really driving continued spending by the top 10-20%? It seems like inflation is really squeezing the bottom 60-80% of income earning households and this is showing up in the consumer sentiment surveys. What's your take?

Edited November 20, 2025 by tede02
misspelling

[Eldad]

Whole market seems like it was hinging on NVDA earnings and now we are down big anyway. That seems like a really bad sign. Bitcoin blowing up as well. Could trigger something with what I am assuming is the most leveraged crowd. 

[Marco Van Basten]

42 minutes ago, tede02 said:

What's your read on the economy given a lot of mixed data? Equity markets have been hot in 2025. But oil prices, the labor market, manufacturing and even big retailers suggest underlying softness. Are lofty asset prices really driving continued spending by the top 10-20%? It seems like inflation is really squeezing the bottom 60-80% of income earning households and this is showing up in the consumer sentiment surveys. What's your take?

Hasn't consumer sentiment been awful for like 5 years?

[tede02]

Consumer sentiment bottomed in 2022 when inflation previously peaked. Improved and then the trend really went south over the last 18 months. My guess is inflation is driving this. The cost of housing/shelter has risen dramatically not just because of interest rates, but also because of insurance and property taxes. My personal homeowners insurance has doubled over the last 5 years. 

[Longnose]

I think we have a ton of noise on both sides. Bears screaming AI bubble. Bulls screaming AI is gonna go to the moon. But my crystal ball which is powered by a hamster in my basement is telling me that while we have pockets of froth, markets are going to continue to bumpy road up and to the right for a good while. Unless we have another major political or economic event (war, major debt defaults, currency collapses, pandemics, etc)

 

On the consumer sentiment portion i think its only going to get worse as wealth gap continues to expand and create pressure on those who struggle to accumulate assets. 

[Longnose]

[Malmqky]

K shaped.

[John Hjorth]

9 minutes ago, Longnose said:

I think we have a ton of noise on both sides. Bears screaming AI bubble. Bulls screaming AI is gonna go to the moon. But my crystal ball which is powered by a hamster in my basement is telling me that while we have pockets of froth, markets are going to continue to bumpy road up and to the right for a good while. Unless we have another major political or economic event (war, major debt defaults, currency collapses, pandemics, etc)

 

On the consumer sentiment portion i think its only going to get worse as wealth gap continues to expand and create pressure on those who struggle to accumulate assets. 

 

*chuckle*, then .

[bookie71]

A major recession but hopefully not a depression.  We are way past due for a correction. 

[Marco Van Basten]

For whatever it is worth, I have noticed a massive increase in insider buying.