On the count of three, everyone panic...Or???

[james22]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

It's why volatility has zero correlation to risk...contrary to modern finance!  Cheers!

 

The longer you hold stocks, the less risky they become.

 

 

[Spooky]

On 4/5/2025 at 2:06 AM, Parsad said:

 

Yup, or own an extremely cheap, quality ETF and ignore everything.  For most people, if they did just that, they shouldn't be watching the stock market, but enjoy a nice walk in the park or go fishing!

 

Even I'm doing that now.  I'm at the point where I don't need homeruns anymore, although they are fun!  I just need singles and doubles.  I have more and more in a simple, cheap ETF...my Berkshire...my Fairfax...periods like this are just so I can put a bit of cash into some homeruns!  Cheers!

 

I'm also adding to VOO as it continues to drop. Any individual names that you are watching Parsad?

 

AXP at about a 17.6 p/e is starting to look interesting. Google at about 18.7 for such a good business seems cheap as well. We also know Fairfax has a lot of earning power locked in from its bond portfolio!

 

[Paarslaars]

11 hours ago, Parsad said:

It's why volatility has zero correlation to risk...contrary to modern finance!

Volatility is a gift to the faithful - Saylor.

 

Over the past years my portfolio has become more volatile, mainly by incoporating leaps.

At the same time my returns have been much greater.

Do have to stomach a 15-25% drawback every year though... while I am getting better at that, still takes me a few days each time to process it all.

Edited April 6, 2025 by Paarslaars

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, Spooky said:

 

I'm also adding to VOO as it continues to drop. Any individual names that you are watching Parsad?

 

AXP at about a 17.6 p/e is starting to look interesting. Google at about 18.7 for such a good business seems cheap as well. We also know Fairfax has a lot of earning power locked in from its bond portfolio!

 

 

There are lots of stocks finally getting to more reasonable levels.  When you look at the Magnificent 7...compared to how dominant they are and how much cash flow they throw off, they are not expensive...especially GOOGL.  I have added to my GOOGL holdings as it has dropped.  I've also been adding to retailers...they are just getting crushed...some should be, but some are getting thrown in with the bathwater.  Cheers!

[Saluki]

While I agree that volatility does not equal risk, it's not a tautology. If you need money for your kid's college in 10 years, then the volatility between now and then is not relevant, but if you need it next year, it is. And what about those Argentine bonds that defaulted, but gave a better return (because of the steep discount at purchase and recovery) than US Government bonds? What if they (or a stock) will have a rough 100 years (like Berkshire) then recover when a young activist in Omaha sets his mind to fixing it? You don't have 100 years and neither do I. 

 

Since I left my job, and I periodically have to trim my portfolio, the volatility does create exposure to sequence of returns risk, and since I don't have a steady trickle of paychecks, it's not as easy to take advantage of the market swoons without using leverage. And since bear markets can last from 1 (2020) to 10 years (the 1970s), leverage is not something that I can use responsibly.