Universal Basic Income - UBI

[Pedro]

Apologies if this thread has been started already. I did a search and could not find hits

Lots of smart people on this board so I'd like her your thoughts on UBI. 

 

I've been pondering the concept and effects and had the questions 

 

-Is it inevitable given the technological progress we are seeing? I think yes

-Will it actually cause inflation or is the threat of inflation from UBI over stated? I dont know 

-Can't the government give the people a low basic amount of UBI to afford to surive but not enough to thrive the right balance? 

-Is there places in the world that do this and what are the effects?

-Is there a better way than UBI (ie dividends from soverign wealth funds) to help people?

 

I've been reading alot of MMT theoriests lately and curious on how the mechanics of UBI work from an MMT perspective. I'm not well versed enough to know this

 

Appreciate any responses and peoples differing views on the concept

Cheers

 

[dwy000]

Wrong place for this discussion.  Should be in General Discussion.  Or better yet, Reddit. This looks like a red flag topic questionable for a stock board. 

Edited March 24, 2025 by dwy000

[nsx5200]

There have already been some experiments in UBI:

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/10/1197956397/give-directly-universal-basic-income-poverty-kenya

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/article/2020-05-12-the-evidence-behind-putting-money-directly-in-the-pockets-of-the-poor

 

I have not done a deep dive on this, but from what I've read, giving directly to the most poor typically does not result in misspending like many on the right fear, but the recipient actually better themselves with it in a fairly optimal way.  The only way to achieve this is to redistribute it from the haves to the have-nots from a broad perspective.  Whether AI would be the catalyst that pushes the politics in this direction or not is questionable, but in the current political climate, it seems like it's a no-go seeing that people bicker about something as basic as universal healthcare (right to get practical care to live, essentially) in the U.S., never mind giving money away.  Other 'socialist' countries that have better safety-net programs may already have many elements of a UBI... If a country like Denmark can provide the below to prisoners, I can only imagine the kind of safety nets they would provide to law abiding citizens.

 

 

So given all that, experimenting at smallish scale is very different from scaling it up to an entire country.  Many implementations do go awry when scaled, along with the increased inefficiencies...

 

As a natural experiment, the COVID impact payments is probably as close to what it would look like.  It would be interesting to dig around to see the studies on those impact outside the ones that we already know about, the trick-up effect, the inflation, etc...

 

There are probably a lot of MMT nuances that I missed/glossed over, so feel to jump in, or provide links to more relevant discussion/forums that might discuss these in detail.  Yeah, this is a pretty big topic that might not be relevant to a stock forum, at least in the near-medium term.

[winjitsu]

Quote

Is it inevitable given the technological progress we are seeing? I think yes

This has been forecasted since the Luddites. I'm inclined to go with the historical track record here and say people will find types of work and the wheel keeps spinning. Perhaps more in leisure related fields, like the rise of TikTok and Instagram influencers.

 

Another spicy debate: you can have a welfare state. It's a luxury. But can you have a welfare state AND immigration? I think this it the question the Nordic/EU/Canada are facing.

 

[Paarslaars]

This already exists in most places... it's called a disability income.

People with a mental disability (like my daughter) receive an income because society deems them unfit to contribute in the job market.

As automation and AI improves, the bar for 'mental disability' will be lowered and more and more people will be considered unfit for employment.

All we can hope for is they still find meaningful ways to spend their lives.

[rogermunibond]

Some contra evidence on UBI

 

https://www.nber.org/papers/w32784

 

https://www.nber.org/papers/w32711