Fairfax 2025

[gfp]

1 hour ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

Yes I was happy to read his discussion on treasury shares. Super helpful.

 

Me too! 

[treasurehunt]

3 hours ago, benchmark said:

I agree it's cheap. But if it takes 10 years to get to 100B, it will be disappointing, as the annualized return would be roughly 11.6%.

 

We should get an extra 1-1.5% from dividends and 2-3% from buybacks. If the market cap goes up by 11.6% per year, our total return will probably be around 15% annualized. I'd be thrilled with that over 10 years.

[ValueMaven]

US ADR holder here - love the letter ... really enjoyed the section on the treasury shares...read that twice.  Seems very Constellation like.  

11.6% over 10yrs with dividends and buybacks ... plus some opportunistic buys/sells is a homerun in this market

[73 Reds]

53 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:

US ADR holder here - love the letter ... really enjoyed the section on the treasury shares...read that twice.  Seems very Constellation like.  

11.6% over 10yrs with dividends and buybacks ... plus some opportunistic buys/sells is a homerun in this market

+1. Anyone here who would not be happy with such a 10-year return has never lived through a prolonged downturn.  Not talking about the onset of Covid which was a mere blip on the radar or some prior recessionary drawdowns which were over before the recession was even evident.  When broad markets go down - and stay down 30%, 40% or more, you'll understand.  It is going to happen, the only question is when.

[investmd]

On 3/7/2025 at 3:03 PM, Junior R said:

 

This is odd. Screening of asymptomatic heart disease has not yet been shown to save lives. In some cases, based on the anatomy, the benefits of intervention do outweigh the risks. However, blanket screening and treatment just because of asymptomatic finding leads to worse outcomes due to complications from the procedure. International guidelines do exist for reasons. 

[dartmonkey]

5 hours ago, investmd said:

Screening of asymptomatic heart disease has not yet been shown to save lives. In some cases, based on the anatomy, the benefits of intervention do outweigh the risks. However, blanket screening and treatment just because of asymptomatic finding leads to worse outcomes due to complications from the procedure.

 

Do we know what procedure they have offered to their employees who are 50 and over? Screening for risk factors and offering target therapies to reduce risk factors, to people identified as being at high risk, is standard medical practice. Fairfax is probably doing more than this, perhaps testing Lp(a), or doing a scan for coronary artery calcification, or doing an exercise stress test on a treadmill. These 3 screening techniques may not be cost effective, but it is hard to see how they could lead to worse outcomes, and it is quite plausible that any of them, or all 3, would lead to better outcomes, even if they are not recommended as cost effective by organizations like the USPSTF.