Waste Stocks?

[ValueMaven]

Does anyone have a good premier, or source for the industry?  You have Waste Connections, Waste Management, and Republic Services which have been very successful overtime.  

 

[competitive-advantage]

I would be careful and really research a lot about the risks. This company went bankrupt recently in Denmark: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/25/danish-village-threat-landslide-contaminated-soil-olst

 

But there will of course be good opportunities

[Gregmal]

The problem with the obviously great ones is people always complain that they are expensive. Otherwise, what’s not to like?

[gfp]

It's important to own the landfills - anybody can win a contract to pick up the cans but nobody is granting a permit for a new landfill.  The owner of our local landfill, Fred Heebe of River Birch Landfill, is ridiculously rich.

 

I haven't seen a comprehensive biography of Huizenga but this thirty year old article tells a lot of his life story.  There is always mafia-adjacency in a business like these, at least in the early years.  It's a long article.  You'll have to read past the testicle twisting...

 

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/wayne-huizenga-the-unauthorized-biography-17392137

[Xerxes]

funny I was watching this last night. 

[Jaygo]

I own GFL. I bought the ipo and have been moderately impressed with the industry. There is an incredible economy of scale because of landfill locations. Somewhat similar to concrete and asphalt plants. 

You basically have an oligopoly in every market. You rarely see all the big players in a single market. It is 2 big boys and some independent feeder fish in major markets so the pricing seems rational. 
 

I owned wcn before and moved my shares into gfl looking for more upside.  
 

I originally bought wcn because of Michael Larson who manages bill gates money. That guy seems to identify industry economic improvements early and has owned republic for a long time. 

 

A new avenue for GFL has been collecting biogas from the landfills and it may well prove to be an excellent bump to revenues from what was a waste byproduct previously. 
 

I don’t expect any grand slams out of it but could definitely see the industry doing better than the market average. 

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Jaygo said:

I own GFL. I bought the ipo and have been moderately impressed with the industry. There is an incredible economy of scale because of landfill locations. Somewhat similar to concrete and asphalt plants. 

You basically have an oligopoly in every market. You rarely see all the big players in a single market. It is 2 big boys and some independent feeder fish in major markets so the pricing seems rational. 
 

I owned wcn before and moved my shares into gfl looking for more upside.  
 

I originally bought wcn because of Michael Larson who manages bill gates money. That guy seems to identify industry economic improvements early and has owned republic for a long time. 

 

A new avenue for GFL has been collecting biogas from the landfills and it may well prove to be an excellent bump to revenues from what was a waste byproduct previously. 
 

I don’t expect any grand slams out of it but could definitely see the industry doing better than the market average. 

I owned GFL for a while but moved it over to WM.  While GFL is ambitious and aggressive I just couldn't get comfortable with a management so intensely focused on the market and their stock price.  Not only did they give quarterly projections and annual projections but they'd give 2 year EPS outlooks. And the price increases they would push thru made for some unhappy customers.

 

The companies I've done best on are the ones that focus on their customers first and let the stock price take care of itself. And I just couldn't see that at GFL.  I'm sure it will do great and I will regret that decision but it always made me a bit nervous. 

[Jaygo]

18 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

I owned GFL for a while but moved it over to WM.  While GFL is ambitious and aggressive I just couldn't get comfortable with a management so intensely focused on the market and their stock price.  Not only did they give quarterly projections and annual projections but they'd give 2 year EPS outlooks. And the price increases they would push thru made for some unhappy customers.

 

The companies I've done best on are the ones that focus on their customers first and let the stock price take care of itself. And I just couldn't see that at GFL.  I'm sure it will do great and I will regret that decision but it always made me a bit nervous. 

 

I do feel the same actually. I'm in the position of a double over the IPO price in a taxable account so I dont want to pay the taxes to switch over to WM or WCN again.

 

The red flags are rampant for GFL and the owner ( giant yacht, 75 million Aspen ski chalet being a couple )but I must say they have done what they projected a few years out. Do they talk about the share price too much? yeah but at the same time they have backed it up with the performance so who am I to say. 

 

I think with GFL you are either going to look back and say that the writing was on the wall and who couldn't see a bankruptcy or you'll say the writing was on the wall and who couldn't see them growing to become #1. 

 

From my vantage point in southern Ontario they have become absolutely dominate in the home market. I had a hydraulic spill recently and they are the call to make for environmental cleanup through Accuworx, everyone uses their bins, the trucks are literally everywhere and anyone who is in industry knows them well. I know for a fact their soil remediation facilities are absolutely printing money as they are the only game in town.

 

In Ontario GFL is a mixture of Waste Management, Clean Harbours and Badger and now through the Aecon and coco paving acquisitions they are huge in road infrastructure.

 

They are unlikely to replicate this dominance throughout North America but who knows. There is a playbook that worked here. 

 

 

 

[Williams406]

Speaking of mafia adjacency, the mob tried to take over the waste business in Chicago in the 40's or 50's and were unsuccessful as several families of Dutch heritage dominated the business. Huizenga's family being one. Swierenga's 'Dutch Chicago' is excellent for anyone interested in the early history of the waste business in Chicago. Years ago, the Big 3--Allied Waste, Republic, and Waste Management--all had ethnic Dutch roots. Perhaps not super relevant to an investment decision today, but that chapter is great if you like a bit of industry history.

[Longnose]

Been looking at CWST a little recently. Strong track record. Has some acquisitions that could unlock the next growth phase.