POLL - Hard landing vs soft landing, how will 2024-2025 look like?

[Luca]

Looking forward to the opinion of the board! 

Edited January 28 by Luca

[james22]

No landing.

[Gregmal]

Yea absolutely no clue. Don’t care either way. Predicting “landings” is a fools game. As we ve seen enough times already. 

[Sweet]

I feel like we have already had a landing and it’s soft.

[mattee2264]

You aren't going to get a hard landing in the USA with the US government running a multi-trillion dollar deficit and the Fed likely to accommodate any supply-side inflation. Also even if AI is incredibly overhyped the short term impact will be an investment spending boom which will add further support to the economy. 

 

And to an extent I agree we have already had a landing. There was a corporate profits recession in 2022 and outside of Mag 7 there wasn't much profit growth and the Russell 2000 is still in a bear market. 

 

The real risk I think for markets is that investors might sour again on Mag7 when they realize that interest rates aren't going much lower than they already are and earnings growth will be harder to achieve this year as they've already taken advantage of cost cutting/restructuring opportunities and it will take time for AI to deliver meaningful benefits to the bottom line. 

[ArminvanBuyout]

We've also been in a quasi-manufacturing softness period for quite a while now, and have had rolling softness in many industries. Only thing that hasn't broken has been consumer (for many reasons), but it's hard to see a scenario where even if we do enter recession, we don't quickly bounce back.

 

The caveat being that something major unexpected could rear its head, but hey, isn't that the genesis of pretty much every major recession anyways hah

[Gregmal]

The reason many non indexers underperform? Active management. The reason many active managers underperform? Fear that "something bad could happen"....

 

Bottom line is if your investment isnt strong enough to endure a recession, or to deal with full economic cycles, its not worth owning in the first place. 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

The reason many non indexers underperform? Active management. The reason many active managers underperform? Fear that "something bad could happen"....

 

Bottom line is if your investment isnt strong enough to endure a recession, or to deal with full economic cycles, it’s not worth owning in the first place. 

Was this meant for the indexing thread?

 

Agree btw.

[ValueArb]

I predict that stocks will be up strongly in 2024, except for all the ones that won't be.

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Was this meant for the indexing thread?

 

Agree btw.

Either or. But mainly falls into the “landing guessing” category. Folks manufacture reasons to underperform all the time. At some point you just gotta snap out of it and realize that there’s no reason to be scared of your own shadow. Mainly because, your shadow can’t kill you.