Cryptocurrencies

[james22]

 

[james22]

 

[Paarslaars]

Curious where all this debt is for, surely they could easily cut some military spending instead?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

 

The long term plan is default. Either implicitly or explicit.

 

The debt was out of control and untenable back when I graduated college in 2011 and it was over $100K for every tax-paying individual. Now we're well over 2x those figures and its growth is ACCELERATING while both parties are running on a platform of increasing it even further either via tax breaks or increased spending. And none of that considers the unreported liabilities of medicare/medicaid/social security. 

 

The writing is on the wall for fiat - just a matter of confidence breaking. 

 

 

Edited October 23 by TwoCitiesCapital

[TwoCitiesCapital]

33 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Curious where all this debt is for, surely they could easily cut some military spending instead?

 

There was a breakdown that I read somewhere discussing the causes of the debt accumulation and what decisions/who made them. 

 

Perpetual war was a significant contributor over the last 25-years. But so were the Bush tax cuts, their extension under Obama, and then Trumps additional tax cuts on top of those all while no one ever actually reduced spending. Then recessionary bailouts of the banks in 2008/2009 and associated programs along with the 2020 recession response. Then things like interest on the debt and other expansionary programs were all marginal contributors - but interest on the debt will likely be a huge contributor going forward. 

 

25 years of cutting taxes and increasing spending....

 

Edited October 23 by TwoCitiesCapital

[james22]

Bailey then revealed what happened during the first time he met Trump to discuss the crypto policy of its campaign.

 

. . . the first thing he asked me was like: ‘ Hey, can bitcoin do anything about the 35 trillion dollar debt?’ 

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/trump-interested-in-using-bitcoin-to-solve-the-us-national-debt-problem/

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 minutes ago, james22 said:

Bailey then revealed what happened during the first time he met Trump to discuss the crypto policy of its campaign.

 

. . . the first thing he asked me was like: ‘ Hey, can bitcoin do anything about the 35 trillion dollar debt?’ 

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/trump-interested-in-using-bitcoin-to-solve-the-us-national-debt-problem/

What Trump could've done about the debt was to NOT provide massive tax exemptions for those who owned real estate or to run the largest peace time deficits we'd ever seen pre-Covid. 

 

Trump can pay lip service to doing something about the debt, but when he had the power to do something about it, all he managed was the status quo of making it worse. I wouldn't expect anything different from a second term. 

Edited October 23 by TwoCitiesCapital

[james22]

I agree with you, but maybe you missed the point?

[james22]

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

I agree with you, but maybe you missed the point?

 

It seemed like your point was to suggest that Donald Trump is interested in supporting crypto in one way, shape, or form as a response to the growing debt? 

 

I simply pointed out there were many options he could've taken to address the debt when he was previously president - or did the exact opposite. Thus, I am skeptical Donald Trump cares about the debt at all and even more skeptical that he views BTC as a path towards a more sound money solution in addressing the debt. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

This will surprise absolutely NONE of the BTC community, but another anecdote: 

 

My contractors doing framing/drywall in my condo offered a $4k deduction in price if I paid in cash. I bank w/ USAA so there are no branches meaning I have to use ATMs to get the cash. But most ATMs have daily withdrawal limits of $200 - $800 meaning it was going to be dozens of trips/transactions/ATM visits to get the $12k I needed for the downpayment. 

 

I walked all over my downtown area cataloguing ATM maximums and their fees (basically requires you to go through whole withdrawal process just to cancel at the end to get the info you need).  It took hours to find an ATM with a maximum withdrawal above $1,000 and even then it had insufficient bills for me to reach its maximum when I tried to withdraw it. 

 

It took hours of effort to identify the best ATMs and 4 visits over multiple days along with $12-15 in fees to get the $12k I needed. I will have to do this again 2 more times as project milestones are passed and new monies are due. Anyone who banks online will have similar issues trying to get cash in excess of $2k for any reason.

 

In the meantime, I just sent $10k of Bitcoin in less than 5 minutes for about $1.83 in transaction fees. Would be 1000% better if my contractors took Bitcoin instead of cash.

Edited October 23 by TwoCitiesCapital

[james22]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

It seemed like your point was to suggest that Donald Trump is interested in supporting crypto in one way, shape, or form as a response to the growing debt? 

 

I simply pointed out there were many options he could've taken to address the debt when he was previously president - or did the exact opposite. Thus, I am skeptical Donald Trump cares about the debt at all and even more skeptical that he views BTC as a path towards a more sound money solution in addressing the debt. 

 

I'm suggesting he'd like to get credit for solving the debt crisis and so would like to believe bitcoin will provide him the magic bullet rather than having to take more difficult options.

 

Since his incentives align, I expect a Trump win will mean good things for bitcoin.

[james22]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I simply pointed out there were many options he could've taken to address the debt when he was previously president - or did the exact opposite. Thus, I am skeptical Donald Trump cares about the debt at all . . . 

 

Not that it matters, but I think you give the opposition too little credit.

 

(cf. Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac)

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

I'm suggesting he'd like to get credit for solving the debt crisis and so would like to believe bitcoin will provide him the magic bullet rather than having to take more difficult options.

 

Since his incentives align, I expect a Trump win will mean good things for bitcoin.

 

I think his incentives are to do whatever is best for himself. He's said it before - he's a debt guy. I don't think he actually cares about the debt. His actions last time around support that thesis. What I'd need to see is something to support the idea that he's suddenly done a 180 on that. 

 

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Not that it matters, but I think you give the opposition too little credit.

 

(cf. Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac)

 

Maybe I do. I underestimated his ability to get elected the first time and under estimated his ability to push through tax cuts. But he also did little-to-nothing for Fannie Mae other than to hamstring the other party from pillaging them after he did for 4 years. I could be wrong - but simply looking at what he did the first time around SHOUDL give us a sense of what his policies/views/thoughts will be the second time around....unless if there's reason to believe he's changed. 

 

 

[james22]

13 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I don't think he actually cares about the debt.

 

Doesn't matter. He knows others do and knows he'd get great credit for solving the problem.

 

13 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

But he also did little-to-nothing for Fannie Mae other than to hamstring the other party from pillaging them after he did for 4 years.

 

There were limitations around what he could for much of the time and competing priorities once he was free to act.

 

That he didn't free them says nothing about his interest in doing so.

[james22]

21 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

. . . simply looking at what he did the first time around SHOUDL give us a sense of what his policies/views/thoughts will be the second time around....unless if there's reason to believe he's changed. 

 

He's better prepared.

 

I expect the second term will be significantly more productive.

 

Example (from 1:02:15):

 

 

[james22]

And surrounded by:

 

Elon Musk - entrepreneur, owns bitcoin

RFK Jr - owns bitcoin

JD Vance - entrepreneur, owns bitcoin

Vivek Ramaswamy - entrepreneur, owns bitcoin

Tulsi Gabbard - owns bitcoin

 

 

[james22]

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

5 hours ago, james22 said:

And surrounded by:

 

Elon Musk - entrepreneur, owns bitcoin

RFK Jr - owns bitcoin

JD Vance - entrepreneur, owns bitcoin

Vivek Ramaswamy - entrepreneur, owns bitcoin

Tulsi Gabbard - owns bitcoin

 

 

 

The first time around he was surrounded by Mnuchin, Paulson, Calabria, and many others who wanted to privatize Fannie. It didn't happen. 

 

I'm not saying it won't - I'm just saying you all seem to be giving him an awful lot of credit and holding onto a lot of hope for crypto and Fannie Mae for somebody who doesn't have a demonstrated history of really caring or doing anything about either. 

 

Edited October 24 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Kizion]

12 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

My contractors doing framing/drywall in my condo offered a $4k deduction in price if I paid in cash.

 

I understand the comparison cash vs. BTC, but why was an instant bank transfer not an option for your contractor? Curious, but even without an answer, a bank transfer is OK for most other use-cases, no? 

BTC as alternative for a bank transfer is less favourable, right?

Edited October 24 by Kizion

[TwoCitiesCapital]

21 minutes ago, Kizion said:

 

I understand the comparison cash vs. BTC, but why was an instant bank transfer not an option for your contractor? Curious, but even without an answer, a bank transfer is OK for most other use-cases, no? 

BTC as alternative for a bank transfer is less favourable, right?

 

"Instant" bank transfer doesn't really exist. ACH still typically takes 2-3 business days to move and be credited while wires cost way more the $1.38 and take longer than 5 minutes. Is this ok in many instances? Sure. But for the times where 2-3 days is unacceptable, BTC is better and cheaper than a wire. 

 

As for why we couldn't do ACH, or wire, or personal check, or money order, or etc - my primary guess is because they don't want to declare it for income tax purposes. But I can't say for certain and there could be other reasons for their preference. Cash is legal tender. They're asking to be paid in cash. It shouldn't be difficult to do, but it is. 

Edited October 24 by TwoCitiesCapital

[gfp]

If a contractor is offering $4k discount for physical cash payment they are most likely defrauding their workers comp carrier as the primarily motivation. (I’m sure income tax avoidance is also a factor)  Those carriers like to look at the bank statements.

[UK]

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

If a contractor is offering $4k discount for physical cash payment they are most likely defrauding their workers comp carrier as the primarily motivation. (I’m sure income tax avoidance is also a factor)  Those carriers like to look at the bank statements.

 

Perhaps. As mentioned, I don't really know what the reason is. Their preference for payment isn't my business and they didn't force me to pay cash. Just offered an incentive to do so. 

 

20 years ago, paying in cash would have been the norm and internet banking weird. Now, internet banking is relatively normal and paying in cash is seen as weird or underhanded. 

 

 

 

 

[james22]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

The first time around he was surrounded by Mnuchin, Paulson, Calabria, and many others who wanted to privatize Fannie. It didn't happen. 

 

My Vikings didn't win last weekend. Does that mean they didn't want to?

 

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I'm not saying it won't - I'm just saying you all seem to be giving him an awful lot of credit and holding onto a lot of hope for crypto and Fannie Mae for somebody who doesn't have a demonstrated history of really caring or doing anything about either. 

 

I'm only expecting an experienced Trump will outperform the inexperienced. And that he'll act in his own self-interest.

 

Doesn't seem too hopeful to me. 

 

How can hearing he asked: ‘Hey, can bitcoin do anything about the 35 trillion dollar debt?’  suggest anything other than he (for whatever reason) cares?

 

But you believe what you want.