Fairfax - Vol 2 - 100 of the Best Posts All in One Document

[UK]

4 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

@Viking, I think a 'thank you' would be too little to express what I am feeling right now. I thank god for all the detours that led me to this forum, I started reading the 500 pager at 12 AM, stopped at 6 AM. I can't recall any moment in my lifetime ever where I spent that amount of time reading. This is now my holy book. Your dedication and passion inspires me and your knowledge overwhelms me. Thank you.

+1

[Viking]

On 10/23/2024 at 4:03 PM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

@Viking, I think a 'thank you' would be too little to express what I am feeling right now. I thank god for all the detours that led me to this forum, I started reading the 500 pager at 12 AM, stopped at 6 AM. I can't recall any moment in my lifetime ever where I spent that amount of time reading. This is now my holy book. Your dedication and passion inspires me and your knowledge overwhelms me. Thank you.

@whatstheofficerproblem, thanks for the kind words. Happy to hear you found the PDF useful  

[Maverick47]

@Viking  I always appreciate the opportunity to revisit the Fairfax investment thesis in your book of posts!

 Doing so last night revived my excitement for the future prospects of the company…and this morning as I was tweaking my retirement portfolios (selling some of it to generate cash for the coming year’s income requirements) I also took the opportunity to sell some of the names I’m less confident of, and redeployed some of the additional funds into Fairfax.

 

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Lars [ @Viking ],

 

This is just so exceptional and outstanding!, - thank you for sharing it!

 

Most of the prior years, for now a long time, I've at this time of the year started stressing and thinking about what to do that particular year for the income / calendar year, with regard to tax planning for the year. This year, I made the decisions and carried out the actions needed for 2024 in that respect in august 2024. So, more time available for reading at this time of the year than earlier years.

 

This post by Crip [ @Crip1 ] hit me like a cub over my head with it's time for me personally to allocate more time and energy to Fairfax Financial Holdings now [, because it's likely a better fit to me personally now, than earlier - I really suck at trading around a stock] :

 

I'll take notes and share them with you. 

[Viking]

On 12/5/2024 at 8:09 PM, Maverick47 said:

@Viking  I always appreciate the opportunity to revisit the Fairfax investment thesis in your book of posts!

 Doing so last night revived my excitement for the future prospects of the company…and this morning as I was tweaking my retirement portfolios (selling some of it to generate cash for the coming year’s income requirements) I also took the opportunity to sell some of the names I’m less confident of, and redeployed some of the additional funds into Fairfax.

@Maverick47 , I was knee deep in writing my ‘Davis double play’ post when I read your comment. It put a smile on my face. What you are doing with your investment in Fairfax seems to me to mirror what Davis likely did with his top insurance investments back in his day - redeploy periodically / keep adding to your winners especially when they are trading at a cheap (or even reasonable) valuation. Best of luck. I hope it works out well for you and your family  

[Viking]

On 12/7/2024 at 6:34 AM, John Hjorth said:

Lars [ @Viking ],

 

This is just so exceptional and outstanding!, - thank you for sharing it!

 

Most of the prior years, for now a long time, I've at this time of the year started stressing and thinking about what to do that particular year for the income / calendar year, with regard to tax planning for the year. This year, I made the decisions and carried out the actions needed for 2024 in that respect in august 2024. So, more time available for reading at this time of the year than earlier years.

 

This post by Crip [ @Crip1 ] hit me like a cub over my head with it's time for me personally to allocate more time and energy to Fairfax Financial Holdings now [, because it's likely a better fit to me personally now, than earlier - I really suck at trading around a stock] :

 

I'll take notes and share them with you. 

@John Hjorth , I look forward to reading your notes. At the end of the day, we are all trying to improve our understanding of the company and make the best decisions we can with the facts as we see them. This is a great board and it is a honor to be able to discuss / debate with other investors like you. Tusind tak. 

Edited December 11, 2024 by Viking

[Malmqky]

3 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

For those who are interested, here are updated versions on my PDF/Book and Excel worksheet for Fairfax. New posts have been added. Lots of small edits to other parts of the document. It is now close to 600 pages. 

Fairfax Vol 2 - Jan 28 2025.pdf 45.5 MB · 0 downloads Fairfax Jan 28 2025.xlsx 339.92 kB · 0 downloads

 

Is there a charity or cause you'd like us to donate to? I assume you aren't going to accept payment for this and all the work you do. I think myself and many others want to support your work.

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Malmqky said:

 

Is there a charity or cause you'd like us to donate to? I assume you aren't going to accept payment for this and all the work you do. I think myself and many others want to support your work.

@Malmqky, I appreciate the thought. I have already been paid very well over the past 4 years for my work on Fairfax (both monetarily and psychologically). So a hard no to any donations to me. And I have no special causes - most of my donations these days are going to younger family members (education and/or permanent savings) to help them establish their grubstake.

I continue to get a great deal of value from the other posters on Fairfax on this board - as I have said before, in some ways the book is a bit like the Borg collective from Star Trek (with the book being the cube and the Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax being the Borg). I owe a great deal to other board members - in many respects I am just the front man.  
 

I am always looking for feedback. Interesting to me that the document seems to be slowly morphing into more of an actual book. 

Edited January 29, 2025 by Viking

[maxthetrade]

Viking, many thanks for posting your work here. I just came back from vacation from Fuerteventura and really appreciate it! I f you ever come over to Europe let me know and we'll see if we can arrange something

[Liberty]

Thanks Viking

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Liberty said:

Thanks Viking

 

@Liberty, you are welcome.

 

Since I posted the update Friday night, there have been about 365 downloads of the PDF (290 of the current and 75 of version I posted Friday night) and 115 downloads of the Excel workbook. I think the Barron's article this weekend on 'BRK Wanebees' might have drummed up some new interest in Fairfax. My Twitter/X handle has also picked up well over 100 new followers over the past 4 days (it is up to over 2,600, which is pretty crazy given I only Tweet about Fairfax).  

 

Edited June 10, 2025 by Viking

[MichaelS]

@Viking Could you share your Twitter/X handle?

[Viking]

On 6/10/2025 at 1:15 PM, [email protected] said:

@Viking Could you share your Twitter/X handle?

 

Viking Vancouver

@VikingVan100

 

Edited July 25, 2025 by Viking

[MichaelS]

@Viking Thank you!

[klipbaai]

Thanks, Viking. Much appreciated. 

[adventurer]

Hi @Viking, do you have a post on how Fairfax may be affected by longer bear markets like the GFC08? Did you ever have thoughts on that? 

[Viking]

20 minutes ago, adventurer said:

Hi @Viking, do you have a post on how Fairfax may be affected by longer bear markets like the GFC08? Did you ever have thoughts on that? 

 

@adventurer, I look at bull/bear markets as volatility. And volatility is a good thing for Fairfax. And extreme volatility is usually very good for Fairfax (when they make their best investments - the needle movers). I have done a post on Volatility. It starts on page 221 in my book.

 

I am working on an update to that post. But I keep getting lost (so it remains uncompleted). I am also working on a post on the insurance cycle - through the lens of volatility. That might be done in the next week or two. 

 

PS: It might be instructive to look at what Fairfax did coming out of the GFC (read a few of Prem's letters from that time). They were flush with cash (having nailed the credit default swaps and equity hedges). I think they used the windfall to buy out their partners in Northbridge and Odyssey. And I think they loaded up with blue chip US equities (which they had to sell prematurely given the losses from the equity hedges).

Edited August 17, 2025 by Viking

[UK]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

 

For those who are interested, another update of my book/collection of posts on Fairfax is available. Along with my companion Excel workbook with models. To download the files expand the link above or go to the first post in page 1 of this thread (it will always have the most recent version of my PDF/book and companion Excel workbook with models). 

 

This revision has been a little more extensive than normal. Both Chapters 1 (introduction to Fairfax) and 2 (earnings) have been updated. Importantly, the format for those chapters has also been updated - I think the new format is much easier to read.

 

As per usual, new posts have been added. Some older posts have been updated. The book now has over 800 pages of material on Fairfax. My goal is not size - but I will continue to add material that I think adds value for those interested in learning more about Fairfax.  

 

I don't re-read the entire document when I post updated versions. If you see any big errors please let me know. I would also appreciate feedback on the new formatting used in Chapters 1 and 2 - is it better than the old version?

 

Thank you!

[Viking]

On 8/4/2023 at 6:07 PM, Viking said:

Updated June 1, 2026

 

An update of my book/collection of posts on Fairfax is attached below. New posts have been added. The book now has ~950 pages of material on Fairfax. My goal is not size - but I will continue to add material that I think adds value for those interested in learning more about Fairfax.  

 

I don't re-read the entire document when I post updated versions. If you see any big errors please let me know.

 

Please note, not everything in the book has been brought up to date. That would have required a couple of months of work… and by the time it was done, much of it would be out of date again. My current plan is to keep updating parts of the document as time goes by. Bottom line, this document should be a much better resource for board members  / investors than what existed before. I hope you find it useful.

---------

For members who enjoy reading my posts on Fairfax I have attached at the bottom of this post two documents:

1. Fairfax - The Emergence of a Wonderful Company:
   • PDF file contains more than 100 of my best posts on Fairfax from over the past 2 years, organized into 20 chapters.
2. Excel workbook:
   • Companion document to the PDF file, contains 14 worksheets (see below for details).

Sanjeev, thanks for everything you do running this board. For all the members on this investing forum, ‘thank you’ for breaking bread on a daily basis and sharing your thoughts on investing and life. Over the years, it has been a life changing experience for me and my family. What is contained in this document is the collective wisdom of this group. Let’s hope i have captured it reasonably well.

 

A message from the legal department: Both documents are incomplete and contain errors. What is contained in the attached documents is not intended to be investing/financial advice. Its purpose is to educate and entertain.

-----------

The Excel file contains 14 worksheets:

1. FFH-24: lists and tracks many of Fairfax's equity holdings in real time 
2. Size: ranking of Fairfax's equity holdings by size 
3. Moves: detailed compilation of many on Fairfax's transactions going back to 2010 - organized by year
4. Earnings Estimate: 2025 and 2026
5. Premiums: the build for 'underwriting profit'
6. Interest: the build for 'interest and dividend income'
7. Associate Equities: the build for 'share of profit of associates'
8. Consolidated Equities: Non-insurance Consolidated Companies
9. Investments: the build to calculate the return on the total investment portfolio
10. Shares: reviews 'effective shares outstanding'
11. Excess of Fair Value over Carrying Value: for the non-insurance associate and consolidated holdings
12. Float: the build for float
13. 13yr View: A 13 year view of many key metrics for Fairfax
14. IFRS 17: Effects of discounting and risk adjustment - quarterly summary of historical numbers used in earnings forecast

 

Fairfax May 2026 -compressed.pdf 34.52 MB · 0 downloads Fairfax May 2026.xlsx 379.52 kB · 0 downloads

 

For those who are interested, another update of my book/collection of posts on Fairfax is available. Along with my companion Excel workbook with models. To download the files expand the link above or go to the first post in page 1 of this thread (it will always have the most recent version of my PDF/book and companion Excel workbook with models). 
 

New posts have been added. 

 

I don't re-read the entire document when I post updated versions. If you see any big errors please let me know.