Sweet Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 3 hours ago, gfp said: This Destiny Tech100 closed end fund is wild! Lots of entertainment What the hell! Up another 40%. This thing could just steam roller higher as more learn about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 3 hours ago, Sweet said: What the hell! Up another 40%. This thing could just steam roller higher as more learn about it. >500,000,000 shares authorized, 10,879,905 shares issued and outstanding Hmm, could there be some reflexivity here? Can they place the other 489M shares at market price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 1 minute ago, backtothebeach said: >500,000,000 shares authorized, 10,879,905 shares issued and outstanding Hmm, could there be some reflexivity here? Can they place the other 489M shares at market price? I don't know what they can or can't do but I don't see how they could get that extra capital invested in private companies very quickly. This thing traded $118.75 after hours tonight. (we are talking about DXYZ in case that is not obvious) Matt Levine wrote about it in his column today, so I'm sure a bunch of people learned what it was that hadn't previously heard about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 18 hours ago, gfp said: I don't know what they can or can't do but I don't see how they could get that extra capital invested in private companies very quickly. This thing traded $118.75 after hours tonight. (we are talking about DXYZ in case that is not obvious) Matt Levine wrote about it in his column today, so I'm sure a bunch of people learned what it was that hadn't previously heard about it. So DXYZ traded above $120/ share multiple times after-hours last night and this morning. Interactive brokers still had shares available to short at that time but the borrow rate was 80-90%. Less than half that price currently. NAV $5. Just a bizarre trading sardine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 23 hours ago, gfp said: So DXYZ traded above $120/ share multiple times after-hours last night and this morning. Interactive brokers still had shares available to short at that time but the borrow rate was 80-90%. Less than half that price currently. NAV $5. Just a bizarre trading sardine Levine wrote about it again yesterday, its a great story. Essentially his point was at its peak even if all of its portfolio companies returned 10x its NAV still wouldn't get close to its market cap. The way I look at it is that the market for people wanting a piece of these private companies (for bragging rights as much as a misquided idea of future profits) is a lot larger than $50M, so I doubt it ever trades down to anywhere near NAV. At least not until the next tech stock crash, as long as tech is popular this is the purest play for gambling on the most exclusive tech companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 I saw the founder / promoter / whatever you call him sold $4.5m worth at $30/sh. I assume he has sold more since if allowed to. I am unclear if they can issue new shares at a premium to NAV any time soon. I covered my short with all the Levine attention but it’s been an entertaining and profitable distraction. I even held a short overnight one night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 1 hour ago, gfp said: I saw the founder / promoter / whatever you call him sold $4.5m worth at $30/sh. I assume he has sold more since if allowed to. I am unclear if they can issue new shares at a premium to NAV any time soon. I covered my short with all the Levine attention but it’s been an entertaining and profitable distraction. I even held a short overnight one night Congrats! I did not do anything...felt too stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 This is a biopharma company, so it's in my "too hard" pile without even looking, but I noticed that they had a lot of insider buying this quarter from a 10% owner fund and one of their directors: http://openinsider.com/CGON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 (edited) I think at some point Boeing is a buy but I would be uncomfortable getting in now especially since I don’t think the fallout is over. Wider changes are required and it’s going to be a while. Starbucks has long interested me, I was tempted by it recently but passed on it. I think there is greater profit margins through cost cutting - they are building out a lot of stores right now. Not sure how much they can expand. Great business but some of the sheen has come off recently. Don’t know anything about Brown-Forman, currently looking at it, and I’ve no interest in Charter. Edited April 11 by Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 4 hours ago, Saluki said: This is a biopharma company, so it's in my "too hard" pile without even looking, but I noticed that they had a lot of insider buying this quarter from a 10% owner fund and one of their directors: http://openinsider.com/CGON Yeh these things are a crap shoot, I have seen many zeros but only a few heroes. I think it is too easy to fool yourself into thinking you know way more about the prospects of particular drugs products than you really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 2 hours ago, Sweet said: I think at some point Boeing is a buy but I would be uncomfortable getting in now especially since I don’t think the fallout is over. Wider changes are required and it’s going to be a while. Starbucks has long interested me, I was tempted by it recently but passed on it. I think there is greater profit margins through cost cutting - they are building out a lot of stores right now. Not sure how much they can expand. Great business but some of the sheen has come off recently. Don’t know anything about Brown-Forman, currently looking at it, and I’ve no interest in Charter. He forgot about $UNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 This came on my radar from looking at Form 4s. Two years ago this was trading at $300. For entertainment purposes, imagine you had bought it and coffee canned it until last month when it was about $20. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PGY?.tsrc=fin-srch Now imagine that last month, after waiting for it to come back 150x so you can get back to break even, they dilute you and your shares drop in half again. Then you see that the SEC filings show that insiders bought on the dilution after the price drop. There's probably a lesson in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 I wonder how widespread this is? It may explain some of the multiple differences between Europe and US: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 On 4/9/2024 at 10:32 AM, gfp said: So DXYZ traded above $120/ share multiple times after-hours last night and this morning. Interactive brokers still had shares available to short at that time but the borrow rate was 80-90%. Less than half that price currently. NAV $5. Just a bizarre trading sardine Now back down to $17.30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted April 26 Author Share Posted April 26 US birth rate currently 1.63, I think that’s a huge problem for the economy and stock market in the future. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/america-birth-rate-decline-a111d21b# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 1 hour ago, backtothebeach said: Now back down to $17.30. The founder managed to sell a few decent sized blocks at high prices. One of them to a "private fund" which sounded to me like a fund covering a short position. Predictably, they filed a preliminary prospectus to issue a ton of shares if they can get it going in time. Today's volume is high so maybe they got some shares sold? https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843974/000157587224000368/es106_n2.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843974/000157587224000367/xslF345X05/ownership.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 1 hour ago, Sweet said: US birth rate currently 1.63, I think that’s a huge problem for the economy and stock market in the future. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/america-birth-rate-decline-a111d21b# "In the future" can be an awfully long way away. I wouldn't base your investment decisions on an article citing birth rates and trends. The United States is uniquely positioned as being a very desirable (and apparently easy to sneak into LOL) destination for young, productive (and fertile), immigrants. Many other countries have much more serious demographic problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 Some names in there I didn’t expect. Will have to look at them later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3CSmiw-1z4 Several great speakers at this event in Norway, like Howard Marks. But I particularly liked this talk by Michael Maboussin. His book "More Than You Know" is a really great book to help you think about process and connecting the dots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 (edited) A net-net trading at a big discount with questionable management and shareholders. https://nvariant.substack.com/p/big-new-deal-announced-by-akili-akli Edited May 1 by ValueArb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 Right before the tech bubble burst in 2000, I was in a corporate finance class when someone brought up the topic of tech stocks, and how they are certainly not a bubble, but rather follow a different method of value that is unlike anything that came before it. As the tech boom in stock prices for company with no profits had continued for several years, the student thought the professor should agree that he (and the old methods of valuation) were wrong. At which point he gave the classic response that "the four most dangerous words in the English language are 'this time is different'". Contrary to the opinion of CryptoBros that I talk to, I do understand how crytpo works. I took a couple of courses in it, and I "get" the technology. But I also have always felt that 99% of the use cases are nonsense and that the price action is driven by FOMO. When everyone was talking about NFTs and how important they were going to be to everything, and were buying up JPEGs for more than a house costs, I knew it would end badly. Bored Apes are now selling for a ten cents on the dollar, and that's probably too much for them: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/bored-ape-yacht-club-nfts-floor-price-sinks-ceo-announces-layoffs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted May 2 Author Share Posted May 2 I too think most use cases don’t make sense but there are a lot of crypto believers, and it even has some buy in from wallstreet. Crypto does seem to be market leading at this minute - so that’s a use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted May 2 Author Share Posted May 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 19 hours ago, Sweet said: Crypto does seem to be market leading at this minute - so that’s a use. What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 1 hour ago, ValueArb said: What does that mean? That I’ve noticed it’s price action leads the general market ever so slightly - I not recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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