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FUR

biaggio

By biaggio
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Myth465 Newbie

Myth465

Posted
Posted

Im waiting for the 10Q to see the breakouts between the other business segments. The quarter looks good and I agree with the sale of the REIT securities though.

  • 2 weeks later...
Myth465 Newbie

Myth465

Posted
Posted

Here is my stab in the dark at valuing FUR. Refer to attachment.

 

Please let me know if anything is double counted or the valuation looks flawed.

 

Myth465 Newbie

Myth465

Posted
Posted

Thanks that was a good catch, I pulled the market cap from Google finance and you are right their share count was off. Must be related to the debt conversion of the series B, or just an error on their website. Yahoo shows $260 or so.

 

We are now at 109% of my perversely calculated book value and I am comfortable with that. I think the loan platform has at least $20 million if not more of built in gains, but want to leave the one timers off until they hit the financials. We also have gains in LXP and possibly in other REIT securities.

 

I also only used an 8 multiple on the CF when I think it deserves a 10.

Finally I think the Interest on the loans will be nice and come Q1 we can forecast them for the whole year.

 

Thanks alot for the tip regarding the mortgage debt and it being non recourse. FUR has shown they will walk away from buildings which are underwater so I look at the debt as an operating expense.

 

----

 

Also looks like Clarus is being a bit more active and may make a move on  something soon.

txlaw Newbie

txlaw

Posted
Posted

Gotta read the 10-K before I can figure out my current valuation. 

 

After the quarter I lightened up on FUR substantially since it no longer appeared to be as dirt cheap as it was when it was close to $9.

  • 4 weeks later...
ERICOPOLY Mentor

ERICOPOLY

Posted
Posted

Im not but wish I good could to the annual meeting. Any insight to whats driving the stock move today?

 

Well, my holdings were all up in a manic move yesterday.  C was up 7% yesterday.  JOE was up 4%.  FUR was up 6%.

 

It's just a common theme.  Just so happens that I own all three and they were all ideas I stole from Berkowitz.

 

I saw nothing special from FUR yesterday that I didn't see across my portfolio (except for FFH which has been a dog, but it's a well loved pet).

Myth465 Newbie

Myth465

Posted
Posted

You are probably right. Just a raising tide.

 

I just dont even know where to begin with C. There is probably value there, but I think it would take too much time to get a handle on.

 

JOE is interesting though I think its cheap, but cant find a decent enough catalyst to justify buying it. I think the value is there but that it will be cheap for a while.

 

The market seems a bit frothy but I like all of my holdings. I feel like they are good value but also feel like you would be a fool to hold at this point. Everyone seems to be diving it. I have been calling for a pullback for 6 months now. I think I will continue to hold and will likely regret it at some point.

ERICOPOLY Mentor

ERICOPOLY

Posted
Posted

You are probably right. Just a raising tide.

 

I just dont even know where to begin with C. There is probably value there, but I think it would take too much time to get a handle on.

 

JOE is interesting though I think its cheap, but cant find a decent enough catalyst to justify buying it. I think the value is there but that it will be cheap for a while.

 

The market seems a bit frothy but I like all of my holdings. I feel like they are good value but also feel like you would be a fool to hold at this point. Everyone seems to be diving it. I have been calling for a pullback for 6 months now. I think I will continue to hold and will likely regret it at some point.

 

To me, JOE is a low risk speculation.  I paid $5,200 per acre for land where they're putting in an international airport.

 

If I wasn't reading the Andrew Carnegie biography at the time, I might not have bought it.  Carnegie (at least once) went in on a land investment 50/50 with a railroad executive.  The railroad executive knew that his railroad was going to put a rail stop in at a certain place, so he and Carnegie bought up all the land there.  Once the news of the rail stop went public, the price of the land went up.  Duh!  Well, insider trading was not illegal then.  Carnegie might have been a great philanthropist but the way he made his money was morally suspect.

 

So JOE just seemed too cheap for me given the airport going in, and even though it's hardly a secret I think it will be a catalyst.  I figure some hedge funds will buy a bunch of JOE and then hype the airport angle.  If a news story came out and said: "Look, you can buy acreage for $7,000 and they're putting an airport in with service to DC, Houston, Orlando... etc..."  I would think the land is still cheap.  And that would be after a 40% pop roughly over the price I paid.

 

The place was called the Redneck Riviera which is enough to keep any sensible person away.  Those people are completely insane -- I was at Walmart two days ago renewing my fishing license, and there are people there wearing "SS" t-shirts (literally it says "SS" on the front in 12 inch letters on the front -- then on the back it says "Support Your Local White Boy").  You've got to be kidding me!  My Grandfathers' generation would have stuck these Nazi white trash in internment camps and thrown away the key!  Yet they probably think they are true American patriots, what a laugh.  Anyways, not saying there are any white supremists in the south, but that's what I think of when I hear the words "Redneck Riviera".  I think the airport will drive up the prices and thereby drive those people out -- but it will take a while to work out.

 

 

 

 

 

Myth465 Newbie

Myth465

Posted
Posted

You are probably right. Just a raising tide.

 

If I wasn't reading the Andrew Carnegie biography at the time, I might not have bought it.  Carnegie (at least once) went in on a land investment 50/50 with a railroad executive.  The railroad executive knew that his railroad was going to put a rail stop in at a certain place, so he and Carnegie bought up all the land there.  Once the news of the rail stop went public, the price of the land went up.  Duh!   Well, insider trading was not illegal then.  Carnegie might have been a great philanthropist but the way he made his money was morally suspect.

 

So JOE just seemed too cheap for me given the airport going in, and even though it's hardly a secret I think it will be a catalyst.  I figure some hedge funds will buy a bunch of JOE and then hype the airport angle.  If a news story came out and said: "Look, you can buy acreage for $7,000 and they're putting an airport in with service to DC, Houston, Orlando... etc..."  I would think the land is still cheap.  And that would be after a 40% pop roughly over the price I paid.

 

The place was called the Redneck Riviera which is enough to keep any sensible person away.  Those people are completely insane -- I was at Walmart two days ago renewing my fishing license, and there are people there wearing "SS" t-shirts (literally it says "SS" on the front in 12 inch letters on the front -- then on the back it says "Support Your Local White Boy").  You've got to be kidding me!  My Grandfathers' generation would have stuck these Nazi white trash in internment camps and thrown away the key!  Yet they probably think they are true American patriots, what a laugh.  Anyways, not saying there are any white supremists in the south, but that's what I think of when I hear the words "Redneck Riviera".  I think the airport will drive up the prices and thereby drive those people out -- but it will take a while to work out.

 

 

I wonder why they built the airport. Was it a Congressional deal type of thing where a guy wants an airport named after him or is there a need.

 

LOl on the Redneck Riveria keeping any sensible person away.

  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...
Myth465 Newbie

Myth465

Posted
Posted

FUR seems like they will be making good money going forward as well given  the recent transactions. It looks like they will be taking over some buildings on the cheap.

  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...
biaggio Newbie

biaggio

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Booming Brazil Is Like the 'US in the 1950s': Sam Zell

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38758907

 

Sam Zell is bullish on NY residential real estate.

 

I always enjoy listening to interviews with this person. Have not heard his name on this site. Seems like great investor when he sticks to his circle of competence.

 

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