China

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-138-billion-shadow-bank-010307369.html

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-cuts-rate-most-since-024503306.html

 

Cheers!

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

6 hours ago, Luca said:

And thats where we disagree. In my opinion we dont live under capitalism, we have STATE capitalism eveywhere, also in the US and also in China, with differing strenght of intervention. 

 

Pure capitalism would self implode and will never work, unregulated markets will self implode. 

Pure Capitalism does not work. I don’t even think it’s truly possible. The system breeds monopolies over and over again. Nobody in their right mind wants pure capitalism. 

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

56 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Not as many North Americans want to emigrate to Europe compared to how many Europeans want to move to the U.S.  Does that mean Europe isn't as livable as the U.S.?!  

 

Cheers!

This is true. So many Europeans are backing bags moving to the US (Most will return within 5-10 years) compared to the other way around. With that being said, excluding higher wages, I am not too sure why? Quality of life here is far superior in my opinion and experience. Though I guess it comes down to personal preferences. 

Best

[james22]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

Does that mean Europe isn't as livable as the U.S.?!  

 

I'd take it to mean, on balance (if you haven't already got it made), Europe doesn't offer the opportunities the US does.

[james22]

32 minutes ago, Fundmanagerthrwawy said:

So many Europeans are backing bags moving to the US (Most will return within 5-10 years) compared to the other way around. With that being said, excluding higher wages, I am not too sure why? Quality of life here is far superior in my opinion and experience. Though I guess it comes down to personal preferences.

 

 

Where would you HQ your start-up?

 

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

16 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

 

Where would you HQ your start-up?

 

Germany, maybe London, or potentially Boston.

Edited August 15, 2023 by Fundmanagerthrwawy

[james22]

31 minutes ago, Fundmanagerthrwawy said:

Germany, maybe London, or potentially Boston.

 

In 2019-2020; I had the chance to be in Silicon Valley for a year. Working for startup accelerator, biotech incubator and go to around 130 conferences / meetup. I met VCs, Academics from Stanford, Berkeley, Serial Entrepreneurs, Tech Workers working for Google, IBM, Amazon, Scientists working for Genentech, Pfizer, Bayer, Merck and more.

 

I could clearly see the insane difference in terms of culture and what success looks like. Being an entrepreneur there and building company is everything while is Europe it is just starting. . . .

 

The 2022 StartupBlink report reveals that the US maintains its dominance in the startup economy with a score four times greater than that of the UK, the second-ranked country. Sweden tops the list of successful startup ecosystems in Europe, followed by Germany and France. Despite being ranked as the 9th best startup ecosystem globally, France’s output is only 1/10 that of the US. 

 

https://mikelmangold.com/usa-vs-europe/

[tnp20]

6 hours ago, Luca said:

Yep! appreciate your posts a lot @tnp20, good to hear i am not completely alone here,

 

You should not feel comfortable because I am on your side and you are challenged on all sides. You should feel comfortable because your independent research tells you so. People should stop reading media (stimulation as WB likes to say) , start talking to people on the ground and get many different perspectives as you can. The situation is always more nuanced than portrayed by the media. Media always has an agenda and "what bleeds leads" as they say so negative news are blown out of perspective and there in always lay the opportunity.

 

My research says there are long term bargains  to be had in China. Xi will be gone in a few years. Its possible they get a worse idiot after that but something tells me after Xi, they will err towards more mainstream person. Good business will continue to thrive. China needs foreign investors and their markets to work but they will do it on their own terms...whether those terms are sufficient for investors to make money is the question. Domestic investors have really no other place to go than the stock market these days and increasing stock market boosts confidence and consumption.

 

 

This old WB video is good to watch when you are feeling lonely....

 

https://www.investmenttalk.co/p/i-might-not-swing-for-two-years?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-76e5a35e-4643-4149-a7be-7421550fb829

 

 

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, james22 said:

 

I'd take it to mean, on balance (if you haven't already got it made), Europe doesn't offer the opportunities the US does.

 

From what I've seen in China...there is as much opportunity there as there is here.  The only problem is that anything you own today, might not be yours tomorrow. 

 

But in terms of making it...I'm guessing 500M Chinese that hit upper middle class in the last 20 years would disagree with you!  And even those that want to come to the U.S., aren't going to stop doing business in China. 

 

Just like you had "astronauts" from Hong Kong in the 90's (flying to Hong Kong and back to North America every weekend), you have Chinese "astronauts" who move their family to the U.S./Canada/elsewhere for the lifestyle, but fly back and forth every weekend for work and their business.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

In 2019-2020; I had the chance to be in Silicon Valley for a year. Working for startup accelerator, biotech incubator and go to around 130 conferences / meetup. I met VCs, Academics from Stanford, Berkeley, Serial Entrepreneurs, Tech Workers working for Google, IBM, Amazon, Scientists working for Genentech, Pfizer, Bayer, Merck and more.

 

I could clearly see the insane difference in terms of culture and what success looks like. Being an entrepreneur there and building company is everything while is Europe it is just starting. . . .

 

The 2022 StartupBlink report reveals that the US maintains its dominance in the startup economy with a score four times greater than that of the UK, the second-ranked country. Sweden tops the list of successful startup ecosystems in Europe, followed by Germany and France. Despite being ranked as the 9th best startup ecosystem globally, France’s output is only 1/10 that of the US. 

 

https://mikelmangold.com/usa-vs-europe/

 

In today's world, you can build a startup just about anywhere in the world and make it a success.  There is no reason why an entrepreneur cannot build a successful unicorn just about anywhere.  Cheers!

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

12 hours ago, james22 said:

 

In 2019-2020; I had the chance to be in Silicon Valley for a year. Working for startup accelerator, biotech incubator and go to around 130 conferences / meetup. I met VCs, Academics from Stanford, Berkeley, Serial Entrepreneurs, Tech Workers working for Google, IBM, Amazon, Scientists working for Genentech, Pfizer, Bayer, Merck and more.

 

I could clearly see the insane difference in terms of culture and what success looks like. Being an entrepreneur there and building company is everything while is Europe it is just starting. . . .

 

The 2022 StartupBlink report reveals that the US maintains its dominance in the startup economy with a score four times greater than that of the UK, the second-ranked country. Sweden tops the list of successful startup ecosystems in Europe, followed by Germany and France. Despite being ranked as the 9th best startup ecosystem globally, France’s output is only 1/10 that of the US. 

 

https://mikelmangold.com/usa-vs-europe/

If I had a start up I’d much prefer me and my staff working in Germany or the UK than anywhere in the US. Like I said it’s mostly personal opinion I don’t care for the ‘ecosystems’ of the countries. If you have a good plan and provide value you’ll be successful no matter where you have a HQ.  

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

8 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

In today's world, you can build a startup just about anywhere in the world and make it a success.  There is no reason why an entrepreneur cannot build a successful unicorn just about anywhere.  Cheers!

Exactly. The idea that the US is the only place to start a successful company is strange. I’d prefer to HQ in Europe as I believe there’s a better quality of life, better for travelling, and less stressful. That’s no slight on the US I love visiting I just don’t think it would be a good place for me to live and work long term. And there’s people who think the opposite and that’s fine. 

[james22]

15 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

From what I've seen in China...there is as much opportunity there as there is here.  The only problem is that anything you own today, might not be yours tomorrow. 

 

That's pretty discouraging to capital formation, yeah?

 

15 hours ago, Parsad said:

But in terms of making it...I'm guessing 500M Chinese that hit upper middle class in the last 20 years would disagree with you! 

 

Easy to make progress when starting from zero (because of the previous central planning policies).

[james22]

15 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

In today's world, you can build a startup just about anywhere in the world and make it a success.  There is no reason why an entrepreneur cannot build a successful unicorn just about anywhere.  Cheers!

 

Sure. But one's chance of success is greater in the US than elsewhere (easier access to networks, money, talent, customers).

[james22]

7 hours ago, Fundmanagerthrwawy said:

The idea that the US is the only place to start a successful company is strange.

 

Never suggested that.

 

And for those with existing networks, it'd probably be silly to leave them for elsewhere.

[cubsfan]

23 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

 

Cubs, you sure you don't want to move to China?!    Cheers!

Gotta hand it to the Chinese- no gender nonsense there!

 

While we lose our minds here debating nonsense like gender, the Chinese rely on science like xx or xy chromosomes .

 

Luca is right - in the long run they’ll kick our ass!

[Luca]

22 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Gotta hand it to the Chinese- no gender nonsense there!

 

While we lose our minds here debating nonsense like gender, the Chinese rely on science like xx or xy chromosomes .

 

Luca is right - in the long run they’ll kick our ass!

I knew this is how i was able to get you!!!

Edited August 16, 2023 by Luca

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Never suggested that.

 

And for those with existing networks, it'd probably be silly to leave them for elsewhere.

No, not saying you did. Just a lot of people do. At least in my conversations with US based businessmen and women.

[Parsad]

10 hours ago, Fundmanagerthrwawy said:

Exactly. The idea that the US is the only place to start a successful company is strange. I’d prefer to HQ in Europe as I believe there’s a better quality of life, better for travelling, and less stressful. That’s no slight on the US I love visiting I just don’t think it would be a good place for me to live and work long term. And there’s people who think the opposite and that’s fine. 

 

Especially if you are not looking for huge funding.  Companies that are cash flow positive out of the gate, can make it anywhere if they are well managed and develop their customer base.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Easy to make progress when starting from zero (because of the previous central planning policies).

 

It's never easy.  It wasn't easy for the U.S. for the first 120 years when they started from zero...and there was no difference in policy or central planning.  In fact, they abolished the only economic advantage they did have at the time...slavery!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Sure. But one's chance of success is greater in the US than elsewhere (easier access to networks, money, talent, customers).

 

Not true at all.  Especially in this day and age.  Money will come to where you are if you are a successful, profitable business.  

 

Some people will probably argue that the amount of competition for capital in the U.S. is making it harder for startups.  The ecosystem is extremely fruitful, but the amount of eggs maturing is getting smaller and dominated by giants.  

 

A number of countries are now on par or ahead of the U.S. in terms of startups on a per capita basis...Israel is the world leader now, ahead of the U.S.  Germany, Britain, Netherlands...all are approaching or about to surpass the United States in terms of startups per capita.  In terms of per capita funding for startups, Singapore and Israel now lead the world.

 

US is still up there and will be for decades to come, but technology is making the world more competitive and efficient.  Cheers!

[crs223]

On 8/15/2023 at 2:27 AM, UK said:

And in order to succeed just beeing contrarian is not enought.

 

I’ve never heard this, and I’ll never forget it… thank you.

[UK]

Again, a lot of focus is on what China does, with a hope that, to borrow from Tencents presentation, maybe Xi/CCP will one day "complete self-inspection and corresponding rectification" (funny line from page 14, isnt it?).

 

However, in this whole situation China is not the only actor and it seems things are going to the wrong direction, with US and Taiwan elections on the horizon.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/camp-david-summit-to-unite-u-s-south-korea-japan-c9cad067?mod=hp_lead_pos10

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-08-15/meet-the-man-who-may-be-the-next-to-lead-taiwan

[UK]

6 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

I’ve never heard this, and I’ll never forget it… thank you.

 

https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/10/michael-steinhardt-being-contrarian-is-not-enough-you-have-to-be-right/

[Luca]

6 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

I’ve never heard this, and I’ll never forget it… thank you.

That statement is certainly true, It's not only about being contrarian here but about the probability of positive development over the long term, which I think is certainly more likely than a return to a system that has not worked before. On top comes that many people exited these markets which creates additional value.