Political Posts

[Sloanes Teddy]

57 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

More on the demand shock caused by Illegal immigration - direct from the Federal Reserve:

 

https://thefederalist.com/2026/06/30/fed-study-illegal-immigration-caused-30-of-home-price-spikes-while-deflating-american-wages/

 

The authors discovered that for every 1 percent increase in illegal immigration “equal to 1% of a local area’s initial employment,” home prices increased by 2.2 percent, rent grew by 1.4 percent, and wages decreased by 0.87 percent, and 0.7 for the average American. This means illegal immigration is responsible for “about 30% of the total growth in house prices and 20% of total growth in rents over the boom period for the average local market.”

 

In sum native working-class renters faced decreasing wages as illegal aliens flooded into the job market, and they also took the brunt of the housing cost increase as demand for apartments and multi-family housing grew.

Every home I've purchased i found myself in a bidding war with illegal immigrants. 

[Spekulatius]

6 minutes ago, Sloanes Teddy said:

Every home I've purchased i found myself in a bidding war with illegal immigrants. 

How do you know who you bid against? Also, how do illegal immigrants buy houses when they can’t get a mortgage?  I had to show my green card to get a mortgage years ago.

 

Illegal immigrants tend to rent.

Edited 12 hours ago by Spekulatius

[DooDiligence]

alt righties tend to lie.

[cubsfan]

23 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

alt righties tend to lie.

 

Geez Doo - just tell the truth - you can't even read.

 

Just like you to shit all over a Federal Reserve Study on home buying....

 

What a loser.

 

I mean, really , how hard is this to understand. Rent prices and housing prices have always been closely correlated.  You have a demand shock on rents (millions of immigrants) and you put upward pressure on housing.

 

 

Econ 101

Edited 12 hours ago by cubsfan

[Sloanes Teddy]

33 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

How do you know who you bid against? Also, how do illegal immigrants buy houses when they can’t get a mortgage?  I had to show my green card to get a mortgage years ago.

 

Illegal immigrants tend to rent.

I was kidding because it's ridiculous. 

[Maverick47]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

 

These are great points, but on the flip side and maybe this partially explains the push to build bigger homes, it costs a lot more per square foot to build a smaller square footage home, which is one reason I don't think we are cranking out 1,200 square foot homes. 

 

I've run the numbers a few times on building ADUs in the 800-1200 square foot range to rent out, and it doesn't make a lot of sense when you can buy an existing house on a separate APN# for a similar cost. Some of this could be California specific, but no matter where you build, you're going to be sinking the most money on kitchens/bathrooms/adhering to modern building codes/utility hookups/permits, so building a home 25-50% larger doesn't increase the price by nearly 25-50%. 

 

Really interesting point about open floorplans, I hadn't considered that before. 

You’re exactly right.  Land costs where I live are enough that when an existing small home from the 1940’s came on the market down the street  it sold for $740,000.  I would never want to live in a 1300 sq ft  80 year old home for that price.  Zoning where I live would allow six units to be built on the same 5500 sq ft lot.  The developer that bought it will build 4 three story homes with enough space left on the lot so each unit will get a one car garage.  A six unit build wouldn’t have left enough space for each unit to have a garage.  I don’t think a million dollar buyer would appreciate not having a garage.

 

In any event, each of the four small skinny homes will list for over $1 million with over 2000 sq ft of living space, multiple bathrooms and a garage for each compared to the $740,000 run down home of 1300 sq ft with a carport that existed before.  

 

Housing supply will increase, but each new dwelling will be newer, nicer, larger and more expensive than the single home that existed before.

 

I can’t think of any economics that would motivate a developer to build less expensive units in such a situation.  Absent some sort of costly governmental subsidization of low cost housing, the affordability issue is a tough nut to crack.  

 

 

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

 

No prob. It was just easier than typing 1000 words.

 

Even the pictures weren't the problem.  A fudge bar mimicking Obama's dong in Trump's mouth is low-brow humor...we're better than that and certainly more creative and funnier! 

 

You could have just put up a picture of Trump and his administration with the caption:  A turd is still a turd, even in a box of raisins!

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Geez Doo - just tell the truth - you can't even read.

 

Just like you to shit all over a Federal Reserve Study on home buying....

 

What a loser.

 

I mean, really , how hard is this to understand. Rent prices and housing prices have always been closely correlated.  You have a demand shock on rents (millions of immigrants) and you put upward pressure on housing.

 

 

Econ 101

 

That doesn't indicate that illegal immigrants were driving prices up.  It was just as likely legal immigrants were driving them higher.  if you have a net shortage of housing built each year, eventually the populace (domestic, international, legal, illegal) will drive rents and prices up of the existing housing stock.  It's happened nearly all over the world. 

 

Now the opposite is happening.  Reduced immigration (legal and illegal) is driving prices down, along with foreign buyers pulling back from North America due to the discomforting political stance here.  Condo prices in Vancouver and Toronto are down 20% and 30% respectively in the last two years...supply is at a 20-year high...rents for the first time in 20 years are dropping...you may get what you wished for, and that comes with a partial collapse in housing prices in NA.  Cheers!

[Sweet]

4 hours ago, Parsad said:

That doesn't indicate that illegal immigrants were driving prices up.  It was just as likely legal immigrants were driving them higher.  if you have a net shortage of housing built each year, eventually the populace (domestic, international, legal, illegal) will drive rents and prices up of the existing housing stock.  It's happened nearly all over the world.

I don’t think cubs is saying illegal immigration is driving up housing prices, but legal isn’t.  He’s saying the number renting drives demand and illegals are a large part of the surge.

 

In the U.K. we had 10 million immigrants (legal / illegal / asylum) in the last 10 or so years, bumping our population from 60 million to 70 million, and our moron politicians can’t figure out why house prices and rent are going up, or are pretending not to know.

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Sweet

[cubsfan]

 

The pain for the IRGC is going up substantially next week.  Bridges and power plants.

 

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607156387

"Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants," he said. "Next week comes the bridges. We're gonna knock out all their power plants. We're going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate."

 

 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Geez Doo - just tell the truth - you can't even read.

 

Just like you to shit all over a Federal Reserve Study on home buying....

 

What a loser.

 

I mean, really , how hard is this to understand. Rent prices and housing prices have always been closely correlated.  You have a demand shock on rents (millions of immigrants) and you put upward pressure on housing.

 

 

Econ 101

Actually this chart shows a weak correlation between rents and home in the short and medium term. Since 2020 (Biden’s term), home prices have increased much more than rents. However, since illegal immigrants (which allegedly surged during Biden’s term) rent rather than buy (because they can’t buy in 95% of the cases) how can this be - it should be the other way a round?

 

The Fed study from the heavily politicized Dallas Fed is a draft paper. There are other studies that you can find showing a very weak correlation between immigration and home prices. In the US we have the situation that a lot of construction labor are immigrants and many of them illegals. What happens to the supply situation when they are gone and what is the net effect?  It doesn’t seem that straightforward than you make it to be,

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

More on the demand shock caused by Illegal immigration - direct from the Federal Reserve:

 

https://thefederalist.com/2026/06/30/fed-study-illegal-immigration-caused-30-of-home-price-spikes-while-deflating-american-wages/

 

The authors discovered that for every 1 percent increase in illegal immigration “equal to 1% of a local area’s initial employment,” home prices increased by 2.2 percent, rent grew by 1.4 percent, and wages decreased by 0.87 percent, and 0.7 for the average American. This means illegal immigration is responsible for “about 30% of the total growth in house prices and 20% of total growth in rents over the boom period for the average local market.”

 

In sum native working-class renters faced decreasing wages as illegal aliens flooded into the job market, and they also took the brunt of the housing cost increase as demand for apartments and multi-family housing grew.

Yeah, this issue isn't that difficult.  We don't even need studies other than for those who can't understand that illegals absorb everything needed by those who are here legally.