Artificial Intelligence

[Spekulatius]

If memory prices stay up for 2 years and then crash back to earth, the memory chip stocks are not worth their current valuations. The value depends on how high memory prices go , how long it lasts and how far they mean revert.

 

I actually think NVDA has some resilience in terms of margins and it’s the better bet here, if you even want to make one. I think for token usage to explode from here, the tokens need to get cheaper which is the way technology works anyways.

Edited Monday at 02:12 AM by Spekulatius

[DooDiligence]

Another banger from Irrational Analysis.

H/T to @gfp for unearthing this guy.

 

https://irrationalanalysis.substack.com/p/the-king-bleeds-long-live-the-king

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Apple gets to keep making Free Cash Flow while the rest burn it on capex

 

[DegenerateGambler]

what's the total revenue from AI supporting all this capex?  Anthropic + Gemini + OpenAI + optimization from AI for ad revenue maybe somewhere between 150-300 billion dollars?  And the Capex is set to surpass 700 billion this year.  I guess AI could become a somewhat decent margin business someday but Chinese models are already catching up and 10-30% of the token costs.  Is there a trillion dollar business here just based on LLMs?

[mattee2264]

Buffett has given his endorsement to the AI trade claiming he is behind the Google investment.

 

I do not know if that is a contrarian indicator or whether it should be a source of assurance. Presumably he's fine with Big Tech becoming more like utilities able to put large sums of capital to work and earn decent returns.

 

I don't think returns will necessary be from LLMs. There are all kinds of software applications likely to emerge in the coming years and cloud monopolies should prosper in the same way they did when everyone went online during COVID. 

 

[Malmqky]

Buffett is a very smart man, but he's had many misses. Airlines, IBM, etc. etc.

 

I think the worst thing you can do is factor Buffett buying into your investment thesis and decisions. 

 

Google is a double digit portion of my portfolio fwiw.