AGM Updates

[CapriciousCapital]

13:30 - 13:45: Introductions, goes over summary figures, again reiterates operating earnings matter and ignore capricious swings in unrealized gains.

Says a "maybe not unexpected" surprise will follow soon... Could it be a dividend?

[gfp]

I think his "surprise" in that context was that all 4 had at one time lived within a mile of each other in Omaha at one time or another

[CapriciousCapital]

Oh! You're right.

[Nomad]

Interesting comments on tech stocks - WEB just said that he doesn't see current FANG valuations as crazy. He was asked a question about tech valuations and rejected the premise that tech is overvalued. Munger also weighed in and said that Big Tech should not be broken up because it's an asset to our civilization. 

[Nomad]

Munger on SPACs and gambling mindset prevailing in the markets: "It's not just stupid, it's shameful."

[gfp]

I loved his "I don't mind the poor fish who gamble". Oh Charlie

[Nomad]

Paraphrasing WEB: He's unhappy about not being able to put cash to work but sees no real good targets in current environment

[Lakesider]

"Buying stock we dont know a great deal about because we prefer them to treasury bonds." Same thing Charlie said about Baba. 

[Nomad]

Munger: "Bernie Sanders has won...the Millennial generation is going to have a hell of a harder time getting rich than our generation...Bernie has won. He did it by accident, but he won."

[Nomad]

Munger on possible corporate tax increases: "We've adapted to the tax rate whatever it is."

WEB: Taxes mean that the government holds "class AA" shares in Berkshire; they used to take 52% of corporate profits when I first started. Question is what would you pay to own a class AA interest in Berkshire? This class AA share is worth more if the tax rate is higher. Taxes are not passed on to the customer in many Berkshire businesses, and higher rates therefore do hurt BRK shareholders. 

[CapriciousCapital]

Buffett: "If the government took a higher share of my inheritance, I don't think it would bother me..."

Munger (cutting Buffett off): "I guarantee it wouldn't bother you."

[Nomad]

Ajit Jain: "In the insurance business, we often think of pandemic risk as one of the risk factors...pandemic risk was totally underpriced by all of us in the industry...We haven't done a good enough job of correlating the risk and aggregating the risk." 

Mentioned event cancellation risk stemming from pandemics (such as Olympics cancellation) not being appropriately priced.

[Nomad]

Ajit put up $1.6b in reserves for pandemic losses; number is likely to grow significantly

Sees another $70b in industry losses from Covid-19

[CapriciousCapital]

Earlier Buffett mentioned BRK has ~10-15% excess cash above what it'd like to have in terms of investing. He also mentioned it's only about 10% the asset value of BRK, so holding that much cash (liking the other 90% of BRK) doesn't bother him that much.

Also earlier Buffett mentioned the rate-limiting step for BHE investment in power generation is transmission (limited by local factors, building through other people's land, etc). And that he'd like to reinvest more there.

Edited May 1, 2021 by CapriciousCapital

[Nomad]

WEB on Precision Castparts: I paid too much in relation to average earnings; for example, GE doesn't need as many engines as we thought.

WEB: "I'll continue making mistakes."

Munger: "The rest of us will help."

[Nomad]

WEB on cryptocurrencies: "I'm going to dodge that question...I'm all right on that one."

Munger: "Those who know me well are just waving the red flag at the bull. Of course I hate the Bitcoin success. I don't welcome a currency that's so useful to kidnappers and extortionists...the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization. And I'll leave the criticism to others."

[Nomad]

Ajit Jain on writing insurance for Elon Musk and SpaceX's mission to Mars: "No thank you, I'll pass."

WEB: "I would say it depends on the premium, and I'd have a different rate if Elon was onboard vs. if he was not onboard [the rocket]"

[Nomad]

Greg Abel on Kraft Heinz: Strong manager and team is now in place and we are pleased with them and how they are reducing debt levels

WEB: CEOs often go out and repeat things to the public that then become a catechism, and no one at the company can then go out and contradict them. This creates company path dependence and leads to "enormous errors." Hard to tell the story without giving examples but WEB doesn't want to criticize people by name. 

Munger: "What you prattle out all the time, you're pounding back in, even if it's wrong."

[Nomad]

WEB on the failure of Berkshire/AMZN/JPM joint venture to reduce healthcare costs: "We were fighting a tapeworm, and the tapeworm won."

[CapriciousCapital]

Munger: "We have a great culture, and Greg will keep the culture"

[Nomad]

WEB: Berkshire subsidiaries are seeing "substantial inflation" in input costs

[fareastwarriors]

Good meeting. Glad to see how sharp Buffett and especially Munger continues to be. 

[omagh]

Some decent AGM notes...
https://www.moomoo.com/en/news/post/4908363/the-2021-berkshire-agm-meeting-notes

[Spekulatius]

Transcript from tikr.com:

https://app.tikr.com/stock/transcript?cid=255251&tid=2594156&ts=2266536&e=696911379&refCode=o94y6y#

[LearningMachine]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Transcript from tikr.com:

https://app.tikr.com/stock/transcript?cid=255251&tid=2594156&ts=2266536&e=696911379&refCode=o94y6y#

Thanks @Spekulatius for sharing.  Really helpful in understanding deeper what was said yesterday :-).