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Munger at the University of the Redlands


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Can anyone help me understand what he means firing the mortar over, under, and kapow?

 

I understood it as: aim a bit long, a bit short and in the middle to hit the target. It means (as it applies to business & life) when you are estimating something, try to upper bound and lower bound tightly and your answer will be the middle.

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Can anyone help me understand what he means firing the mortar over, under, and kapow?

 

I understood it as: aim a bit long, a bit short and in the middle to hit the target. It means (as it applies to business & life) when you are estimating something, try to upper bound and lower bound tightly and your answer will be the middle.

 

Thanks!

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Kind of.

 

Mortar fire is incredibly indirect. You are not looking to hit your target, you are looking to move your target to be where your shell lands. You shoot ahead to stop their forward escape, you do the same behind - now you have moved the enemy to a known location. Then, kaplow.

 

This is why the old adage was to hide where mortar shells have already landed.

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Good find.  Al Marshall got them to buy Sees!  He was like a friend who was unemployed and worked with Munger on his real estate as the sales guy.

 

I'm not sure I get how the artillery thing translates.  Maybe in the early days when they were doing some activist stuff?

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Over, under, kapow

 

Its about being broadly right rather than precisely wrong

 

Its a method used in SAT's - given a problem with limited information/time.........estimate the over, estimate the under......the answer (in multiple choice scenario should now reveal itself).

 

In investing I would argue it's the bull case......the bear case.......with the expected outcome, on average, sitting in the middle of those two.

 

Thoughts?

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Kind of.

 

Mortar fire is incredibly indirect. You are not looking to hit your target, you are looking to move your target to be where your shell lands. You shoot ahead to stop their forward escape, you do the same behind - now you have moved the enemy to a known location. Then, kaplow.

 

This is why the old adage was to hide where mortar shells have already landed.

 

Interesting, thanks.

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Munger is so impressive.  As old as he is....  He runs as smooth as a Swiss clock.

 

And, there was so much that he said in this interview that doesn't get covered in the BRK and DJC meetings.

 

I guess I don't have to wonder if he has lost a step.  NO, he has not.

 

Unbelievable.

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