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Posted
On 7/25/2026 at 5:08 PM, Spekulatius said:

My guess is that both Iran and Saudi Arabia will become nuclear armed states within the next 5-10 years. Everyone by now learned the lesson that without nuclear weapons you just get trampled upon. We are going to see a whole lot more states with nukes in the future.

 

Europe also will seek its own nukes if the AfD Party or Le Pen wins a mandate.

 

Doubtful. I don't think even the Saudi deal for civilian nuclear power will work out. And I really doubt they will be enriching their own stuff. What is far more likely is more dependence on the U.S. to provide defense/weapons similar to Europe. And I think Ukraine will become a huge exporter of defense weapons/tools too thanks to their expertise in drones/air defenses/etc.

 

In fact, Iran has just learned from this conflict that it doesn't even need a nuclear weapon. It can just threaten ships in the Strait/energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Iran now knows it possesses a very real source of leverage. Nukes are not necessary.

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