Any good values out there?

[Matson125]

VIC = valueinvestorsclub.com

[Daytripper]

I don't know enough about the P&C business AND the reasons that have contributed to HALL's price decline.  Trying to evaluate a business on fundamentals is new to me, I picked HALL because it looked cheap and was underfollowed.  The question for me is: What kind of catalyst would cause the share price to improve, short of a buy-out offer.

 

Another poster mentioned that there are bigger and better companies available.  I have no doubt about that, and it is unfortunate that my time and funds are limited!  I've enjoyed kicking the tires on HALL, but without some some sign of life and the lack of a dividend, I'm just watching it.

 

A move above the 50 day MA would be encouraging (can I say moving average on here??!)

 

Tom

[Daytripper]

After taking a glance at AHL, I can only say "HALL Who?"

[oldye]

Don't get too excited about AHL, These guys are squarely in the "know nothing" investors category which means theres a very high likelihood they'll make a big mistake somewhere and put a lot of capital at risk ie putting 10% of their investments in a fund of funds.   

  This company would be a monster if they could average 7%-10% on their investments but they'll be lucky to do 2-4% without falling off a cliff, and heres why:

 

"The Investment Committee of our Board of Directors establishes investment guidelines and

supervises our investment activity. The Investment Committee regularly monitors our overall investment

results and reviews compliance with our investment objectives and guidelines. These guidelines specify

minimum criteria on the overall credit quality and liquidity characteristics of the portfolio. They include

limitations on the size of certain holdings as well as restrictions on purchasing certain types of securities.

Management and the Investment Committee review our investment performance and assess credit and

market risk concentrations and exposures to issuers."

€

 

"For 2008, we engaged BlackRock Financial Management, Wellington Management Company,

Alliance Capital Management L.P., Credit Agricole Asset Management, Deutsche Bank Asset

Management and Goldman Sachs Asset Management to provide investment advisory and management

services for our portfolio of fixed income assets. We have recently terminated the services of Wellington

Management Company. We have agreed to pay investment management fees based on the average market

values of total assets held under management at the end of each calendar quarter. These agreements may

be terminated generally by either party on short notice without penalty."

 

 

[beerbaron]

Yeah, I just read their AHL's annual report, looks good it should go back to BV soon enough. I would buy this as a short term investment up to hurricane season. I just have too much insurance exposure.

 

BeerBaron

[Packer16]

Daytripper,

 

I think oldye answered your question.  Hallmark has an internally managed portfolio that has made some pretty good moves (out of treasuries in 2008 and into munis) and equity positions in good cash flow business that Newcastle has investments in like Pizza Inn.  They also have a combined ratio below 100 and have had this historically and their sales regions appear to be regions of the country that is growing.  This looks more like a mini-Berkshire given its positive float.

 

Packer

[jollyjumper324]

Hello all, this is my first second post since the move from MSN.

 

Considering all of the people here who own BRK and FFH, I'm sure someone knows the answer to this. Does anyone know any good books to learn about the insurance industry?  I've read all of BRK's ARs and a few of FFH's, but still feel like a neophyte.

 

Thanks!

 

-JJ

[shalab]

2010/11 could be a soft year for insurers. Dont think there is a catalyst in the near term to push the prices up significantly.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN1516567620100115?rpc=44

 

[twacowfca]

2010/11 could be a soft year for insurers. Dont think there is a catalyst in the near term to push the prices up significantly.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN1516567620100115?rpc=44

 

[/quote\]

Yes,but.  The but is this:  property claims and many classes of casualty claims and the amounts of claims drop in recessions along with the decline in economic activity. :)

[ubuy2wron]

Please do not throw anything at me and this is NOT for the faint hearted and if you still own it 18 months from now you are on your own but Air Canada. It is not going to zero in the next 12 months thanks to patient creditors and it could earn on per share basis what it is trading for right now in 2010

 

I posted this about a year ago and promptly had a bunch of stuff thrown at me. If anyone was foolish enough to venture into this it is up 300% I am selling half right now and will see how the co does over the next 6 months before I decide what to do with the balance.

PS I believe there were quite a few good ideas on this thread and a few real stinkers as well

[Sullivcd]

I'm a 'net net'. My FDBV/share is @ $33, PPS @ $27.  Est Q4 FDBV/share @$35/sh. Assets are almost entirely financial.  Assets avg AA+ duration avg 2 yrs.  Very strong FCF generator -- a very good business.  Oh, by the way I'm buying back @ 9% of my shares, intending to complete most of the buyback in Q1 of 2010.

 

Who am I?

 

AHL

 

AHL just posted a solid Q3 increased BVPS to $41.53 and announced a $400m repurchase program.

 

http://www.aspen.co/Documents/financial%20results/AHL%203Q12%20earnings%20release%20FINAL.pdf