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Buying stocks under TAX LOSS SELLING PRESSURE 2017 edition!


DTEJD1997
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Hey all:

 

Anybody else looking at stocks that are likely to be under tax loss selling pressure at the end of 2017?

 

In years past, I've dabbled with this and had some moderate successes. 

 

I've found that buying stocks that have low/little liquidity can sometimes be the best candidates.  Somebody has got a loss, they want to book that loss for the year....AND THEY SELL OUT, sometimes at a crazy price!

 

I'll start this discussion going by giving out my 1st candidate: Marketing Alliance (MAAL)

 

In years past, you can sometimes snap this up for a cheap price at the end of the year if you are patient.

 

Anybody have any other candidate(s)?

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I have my eye on Enbridge. Not an ideal candidate, since it is a large liquid stock. But if it does sell off, I will buy.

 

Not much else on my radar this year.

 

Have bought alot of Enbridge.  It has gotten hammered.  I have held it for years.  The recent add ons are for trading purposes.  It wont likely go much lower than 44 with the dividend support. They really got pummelled after the Q3 earnings.  The market cap of the company came off 10 B + on a possible reduction in the dividend GROWTH rate by a couple of percent.  WTF?  They operate in an oligopoly and are the biggest player. 

 

Also Whitecap.  This one looks like tax loss selling aggravated by issuing 400 M in stock at 8.80 to fund the fire sale purchase from Cenovus.  It is trading down near levels when oil was below 30 per barrel.  At todays oil prices they are solidly profitable.  With hedging they will stay proftable for a couple of years in the event of an oil pullback.  There are probably many other Cdn. O&Gs getting the same pressure right now.  I haven't looked at any others.  I just happened to already hold WCP. 

 

Q. Does anyone know when big funds start and stop tax loss selling? 

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Also Whitecap.  This one looks like tax loss selling aggravated by issuing 400 M in stock at 8.80 to fund the fire sale purchase from Cenovus.  It is trading down near levels when oil was below 30 per barrel.  At todays oil prices they are solidly profitable.  With hedging they will stay proftable for a couple of years in the event of an oil pullback.  There are probably many other Cdn. O&Gs getting the same pressure right now.  I haven't looked at any others.  I just happened to already hold WCP.

 

Tourmaline looks like a good candidate too. Strong insider buying by CEO. But I don't really follow this sector.

 

Newalta looks interesting. Though, I think it is highly levered so could be a $0.

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...Have bought alot of Enbridge.  It has gotten hammered.  I have held it for years.  The recent add ons are for trading purposes.  It wont likely go much lower than 44 with the dividend support. They really got pummelled after the Q3 earnings.  The market cap of the company came off 10 B + on a possible reduction in the dividend GROWTH rate by a couple of percent.  WTF? ...

 

I had a similar surreal experience recently with SCHO.CPH in connection with Q3 reporting. Absolutely strange market reactions to trifles from a well run company with an unassailable reputation and trustworthy management. If  honesty is a not a 1/0-thing, I would say that you are more honest than me, because what I posted here on CobF was actually "Oh well", while I meant "WTF". [lol]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Back to topic.

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Torstar (TS.B on the TSX)....

 

Started the year at $1.91 per share. Closed yesterday at $1.64.

 

Fairfax announced on November 10th that they had made a significant additional share purchase at $1.25 to increase their ownership in the non-voting shares to more than 40%.

 

Main business (newspapers) remains under significant pressure however the company is debt-free has a significant cash balance and interest in a number of interesting media properties (Vertical Scope and Blue Ant to name a couple).

 

 

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Have bought alot of Enbridge.  It has gotten hammered.  I have held it for years.  The recent add ons are for trading purposes.  It wont likely go much lower than 44 with the dividend support. They really got pummelled after the Q3 earnings.  The market cap of the company came off 10 B + on a possible reduction in the dividend GROWTH rate by a couple of percent.  WTF?  They operate in an oligopoly and are the biggest player. 

 

I'd be really interested in your thoughts on this one if you have time to start a thread (I can't find one). It has levered up like crazy in the last 18 months!

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Have bought alot of Enbridge.  It has gotten hammered.  I have held it for years.  The recent add ons are for trading purposes.  It wont likely go much lower than 44 with the dividend support. They really got pummelled after the Q3 earnings.  The market cap of the company came off 10 B + on a possible reduction in the dividend GROWTH rate by a couple of percent.  WTF?  They operate in an oligopoly and are the biggest player. 

 

I'd be really interested in your thoughts on this one if you have time to start a thread (I can't find one). It has levered up like crazy in the last 18 months!

 

You may want to check out todays news.  They raised the dividend 10%, issued 1.5 B new shares, have set out a plan to delever more rapidly from the Spectra purchase.  Keep in mind that, like BAM, and other blue chips they dont pay much for debt, and can lock it in cheaply for years and decades.  In other words, rising interest rates wont impact the debt side as much... the stock rise may be muted.  I dont want to co-opt the thread but I dont see interest rates rising much before we dip into a recession and they have to come back down. 

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RE Enbridge, that is $1.5 billion of new equity issued, not 1.5B new shares. The latter would be a rather dramatic change in the capital structure!

 

Right.  They have continued announcements all day.  Selling off non-core assets, issuing shares at subs.  Alot of moving parts on quiet days, let alone today. 

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  • 1 month later...

Newalta looks interesting. Though, I think it is highly levered so could be a $0.

 

NAL.to is up 83% since this post. I wonder what's going on?

 

Is a much more valuable company with $60+ oil.

 

Many are but some haven't budged at all.

 

 

Perfectly efficient markets!

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