Howard Marks Megathread

[doughishere]

His latest. Have a good weekend.

 

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/economic-reality.pdf

 

 

For example, lending people money can enable them to buy things today that they otherwise mightn’t have bought until later (if at all). If a consumer buys a boat today with money made available through a low-interest loan, that’s a boat he won’t buy next year. Lending people money doesn’t alter their lifetime incomes, meaning consumers may buy fewer boats later, when the loans have to be repaid, causing disposable income to contract.

[gfp]

"For example, lending people money can enable them to buy things today that they otherwise mightn’t have bought until later (if at all). If a consumer buys a boat today with money made available through a low-interest loan, that’s a boat he won’t buy next year. Lending people money doesn’t alter their lifetime incomes, meaning consumers may buy fewer boats later, when the loans have to be repaid, causing disposable income to contract."

 

Sometimes the opposite is true.  When a bank loans me money cheaply to buy an apartment building it directly increases my future income.  I get the point about pulling demand forward, and I haven't read the memo yet, but it goes both ways.

[doughishere]

Sorry I effed up and put this in investments.

 

 

Yeah when I post things I kinda pick a good line and post it...generate some conversation......this memo is pretty poignant

 

 

 

Love him or hate him. You have to admit Marks is good.

[John Hjorth]

New Howard Marks memo :

 

OakTree Capital [November 6^th 2025] : Hoard Marks : Cockroaches in the Coal Mine

 

It adresses some frank and usual style public comments from Jamie Dimon recently, the CEO of a regulated competitor. It's an interesting read, at the least. The memo title is to me a bit funny, messing up and mixing two sayings.

[dcollon]

Thanks for posting the memo 

[John Hjorth]

Btw., we have many topics about specific Marks memoes laying around here on CofB&F, scattered all over the place, in the General Discussion forum, with low traction. One of the future days I'll suggest them merged to Sanjeev [ @Parsad ] in one topic, also in hope there will many more, Howard Marks in fact isen't exactly a spring rabbit any longer.

[dcollon]

New memo from Howard

 

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/is-it-a-bubble

 

 

[hasilp89]

will save everyone the 17 pages.

Is AI a bubble?

Maybe.

[villainx]

3 hours ago, hasilp89 said:

Maybe.

 

That's every memo!

 

[Junior R]

AI itself isn't a bubble and will allow a lot of companies to save cost ..the users....the buildout  is another story and how many LLMs stick around is another question...similar to search...Google has an edge as it already has a lot of data ...Hense why Open AI called code "Red"....Stocks in General are trading at higher multiple then their historical avgs...the question is this the new norm or will it go back to historical norms...Not all stocks...

 

IE. COSTCO historical 20 to 30 PE today around 47

jpm 10 to 12 PE today around 14

ry 12 pe today around 15 pe

 

also if OpenAI is not a major player than some of the companies that invested in DCs will have big write-downs 

 

I think apple made google move not spending to much on AI ...eventually they can just put Gemni on apple devices and google to pay them money( billions)

 

but I do believe market is due for a small pull back maybe 5% to 15%

Edited December 9, 2025 by Junior R

[kiwing100]

Author of "Richer, Wiser, Happier", William Green interviews Howard Marks 

https://youtu.be/hmHk_lqv_6s?t=57

 

Edited December 15, 2025 by kiwing100