The Fermi Paradox

[rkbabang]

Multiple filters combined with the vastness of space is in my opinion why we haven't found anything, yet. I'd also wager that our first contact with an intelligent civilization goes something like when European explorers encountered Native Americans, with humans playing the role of the Europeans.

 

I saw this about an asteroid with more than $5 trillion of platinum making a pass near Earth. Once space starts to become profitable I think we'll see a tech boom that leads us to at the very least operating throughout our solar system. This leads to another possible filter, space is likely filled with numerous uninhabited solar systems, a space-faring race would have to pass up 100s of resource rich systems on its way to us. Even if they knew of us, why make the trip, our solar system probably isn't all that special, if you're capable of getting here there are likely many others closer.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2015/07/19/trillion-dollar-baby-asteroid-has-wannabe-space-miners-salivating/

 

We could also play the role of the Europeans.  Even if there are many millions of advanced civilizations we may be the most advanced in our galaxy, so we may make first contact when we visit a less advanced species on their home planet.  There is a huge leap from travel within your solar system to travel between solar systems, there is another huge leap from there to travel between galaxies.  It is plausible that we will find less advanced life in our solar system long before an intergalactic species finds us.

 

[Jurgis]

Dissolving the Fermi Paradox: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

 

An interesting stats based paper on why there is no Fermi paradox and why we may the only civilization in our galaxy or even observable universe.

 

Actually authors' conclusions are pretty much based on broadness of uncertainty in one of the parameters in Drake equation. But I won't spoil it fully... you have to read the paper.  8)

 

Conclusions are a bit depressing. Especially if we manage to blow ourselves up.  ::)

 

It's a bit surprising that no one until now approached this question in the way authors did. Maybe it shows how tough it is to think differently.

 

Should we evaluate our investments the way the authors evaluated Drake equation? I think this is somewhat related to what racemize tried to do in one of his articles and to what Damodaran does. 8)

[Cevian]

Thanks for sharing this Jurgis. I look forward to reading the article with interest.

 

I just finished a very depressing book, "Straw Dogs" by the philosopher John Gray. Not for the faint-hearted.

 

He had a sentence in there I highlighted which seems appropriate here: "Scientists searching for extra-terrestrial life ponder anxiously whether mankind is alone in the universe. They would be better occupied trying to communicate with the dwindling numbers of their animal kin."

 

The way we treat other life on earth is appalling, not sure why we continue to look for life elsewhere.

[Spekulatius]

Isn’t it far more likely that other civilizations find us  than the other way around?

 

It vote for staying low as Stephen Hawkins recommended as no news is good news.

[Jurgis]

Isn’t it far more likely that other civilizations find us  than the other way around?

 

It vote for staying low as Stephen Hawkins recommended as no news is good news.

 

There is no "staying low" and I hope Stephen Hawking understood that.

 

A civilization advanced enough for interstellar travel is very very very likely advanced enough to detect us.

 

If you want to avoid being steamrolled by advanced civ, the good news is that we don't see any Kardashev scale III civs ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale ) in our galaxy or other galaxies. We could still be steamrolled by Kardashev scale II (or scale 2.5) civ, but we don't see any of them nearby either. A scale II+ civ would very likely detect life and possibly radio signals from our planet within the radio/light/etc sphere that goes let's say from 1950s or so. So within 50-70 light years right now.

 

Even if we don't stay low and tight beam info out, this is still limited by speed of light and very likely would only increase the chance of detection by civs that don't have interstellar travel (since civs with interstellar travel would detect us tight-beam-or-no-tight beam).

[Spekulatius]

I am guessing that the fact that we have not been discovered yet means that the speed of life is very likely is in fact the limit. Too bad, I hoped for hyperspace travel or warp drives to get us moving faster some time down the road.

[rkbabang]

It's because we haven't yet gotten through our religion and government stages of development yet.

 

"In short, humans obey orders—and to well-disguised alien scouts, the effects are pathetically obvious. And that is a disease worth isolating an entire planet for, even one with good barbecue."

 

The Fermi Paradox Resolved

by L. Neil Smith

http://www.ncc-1776.org/tle2018/tle980-20180708-05.html