“Macro” Musings II

[Vish_ram]

When ever I view the cash flow statement of large companies, I'm stunned by the amount of debt issuance to buy back shares. (look at AMGN)

 

I made a graph of non-corp debt to GDP.

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=TeJ

 

How will this end?

[yadayada]

I think a lot of companies have revenues overseas since then. That is not counted in GDP I think.

[JEast]

Well, that escalated rather quickly.  As the ¥en moved above USD/JPY level of 120 are my fellow board members still in the camp of not to worry/care about the USD/JPY relationship.  I am still in the camp that the rest of Asia will follow sooner rather than later (look at AUD as an example) and deportation on non-inflationary forces will continue.

 

For USD investors, there should be some nice Asian value opportunities in 2015.

 

Cheers

JEast

[rmitz]

When ever I view the cash flow statement of large companies, I'm stunned by the amount of debt issuance to buy back shares. (look at AMGN)

 

I made a graph of non-corp debt to GDP.

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=TeJ

 

How will this end?

 

With Taxes, probably.

[ERICOPOLY]

When ever I view the cash flow statement of large companies, I'm stunned by the amount of debt issuance to buy back shares. (look at AMGN)

 

I made a graph of non-corp debt to GDP.

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=TeJ

 

How will this end?

 

With Taxes, probably.

 

Are they borrowing against their foreign cash reserves to avoid getting hit by bringing foreign earnings onshore?

[JEast]

Some thought provoking comments from BoA.

Bank of America said 56pc of global GDP is currently supported by zero interest rates, and so are 83pc of the free-floating equities on global bourses. Half of all government bonds in the world yield less that 1pc. Roughly 1.4bn people are experiencing negative rates in one form or another.

In addition, they not surprisingly see $50 oil.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11283875/Bank-of-America-sees-50-oil-as-Opec-dies.html

 

Cheers

JEast

[saltybit]

S&P 500 Company Sales Are Accelerating And Margins Are Expanding

[JEast]

S&P 500 Company Sales Are Accelerating And Margins Are Expanding

 

Don't tell/show Jeremy Grantham the data.

[peter1234]

S&P 500 Company Sales Are Accelerating And Margins Are Expanding

 

Thanks, these are interesting charts.

[wisdom]

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/06/only-mass-default-will-end-the-worlds-addiction-to-debt/

 

A good read.

[petec]

Interesting chart on p1 and p1-9 has some good commentary on 1969 and 1999, when money creation drove stock bubbles and - later - commodity prices.

 

http://www.gorozen.com/static/assets/pdf/ql/GRAQuarterlyLetter2Q2017.pdf

[Williams406]

Petec,

 

Thank you for posting that doc.