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What price would you buy Telsa?


wescobrk
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I regret not buying a small position after the fire story.

I'm curious what price the board what buy Tesla at?

 

I may have to wait for the next bear market to initiate a position.

 

At some point (no idea when, but wouldn't be surprised if it was sooner rather than later), this will be valued on the projected future cash flows of the business, which for a capital intensive car company that currently sells to a small niche consumer, probably aren't what most current investors expect them to be.

 

Okay, you can open the floodgates to ridicule my myopic viewpoint that lacks vision of what Tesla can become.

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At some point (no idea when, but wouldn't be surprised if it was sooner rather than later), this will be valued on the projected future cash flows of the business, which for a capital intensive car company that currently sells to a small niche consumer, probably aren't what most current investors expect them to be.

 

Okay, you can open the floodgates to ridicule my myopic viewpoint that lacks vision of what Tesla can become.

 

The question is, what are those future cash flows? Do you think Tesla will be a "car company that sells to small niche consumers" in 5 or 10 years?

 

What if they have a big energy business? What if they sell technology in partnerships with Toyota, Daimler, VW, etc? What if they keep building more Gigafactories and become the low cost suppliers to the whole car industry + energy storage industry? What if the Model 3 second generation is less than $30k and they sell a million+ units a year? What if Tesla's electric cars can sustain much higher margins than even luxury traditional gas vehicles because of fundamental technological differences?

 

I'm not making predictions, I'm just saying that "valuing on future cash flows" means nothing unless you know what these cash flows are, and I don't think the bears know much more than the bulls.

 

I have no horse in this race. All I know is I would never bet against Elon Musk on anything, ever.

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Well, if their gross margin is 25% per car and the average selling price is 40k, that's 10k gross per car.

 

They currently trade for 35b. They need to sell 3.5m cars to make up their market cap in gross profit. There are currently about 255m cars in North America.

 

Anyone have any insight into normalized ebitda or net margin per car?

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Well, if their gross margin is 25% per car and the average selling price is 40k, that's 10k gross per car.

 

They currently trade for 35b. They need to sell 3.5m cars to make up their market cap in gross profit. There are currently about 255m cars in North America.

 

Anyone have any insight into normalized ebitda or net margin per car?

 

I think that future car sales will be a lot less than what it is now -- when the self-driving cars are a reality in 5-10 years, the industry will be changed forever.

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Well, if their gross margin is 25% per car and the average selling price is 40k, that's 10k gross per car.

 

They currently trade for 35b. They need to sell 3.5m cars to make up their market cap in gross profit. There are currently about 255m cars in North America.

 

Anyone have any insight into normalized ebitda or net margin per car?

 

I think that future car sales will be a lot less than what it is now -- when the self-driving cars are a reality in 5-10 years, the industry will be changed forever.

 

Yep, you'll be able to have a mini-bar to be enjoyed by the two front-seated passengers, using that space wisely after removing that bulky steering wheel/dash.

 

 

 

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