Ukraine?

[rkbabang]

 

I don't want a war, and i don't think there will be one. What I am saying is that Europe (NATO) and the US have to do something. I don't imagine Putin wants a war either but he is counting on the US to talk, talk, talk some more and do nothing. Putin put 15,000 troops in Crimea because he is not expecting a fight. If NATO/US puts a few hundred troops into Ukraine as part of a "training exercise" Putin will get the message. Restart the missile defense shield along the Polish border with Russia as well. Putin doesn't give a rat's A@@ about being kicked out of the G8.  He will care about the missile defense shield, about sanctions that hurt economically, and of course he will understand force.  A few troops in Ukraine sends him a message and he will back down.  Doing nothing costs more in the long run. 

 

No it doesn't cost more in the long run than risking a war with Russia, which of course will pull in most of the world.    The US has to start minding its own damn business and stop thinking of itself as a "superpower", because there is no such thing.    Will other countries think developing nukes is a good idea?  Yes, but why haven't they realized that already?  North Korea and Iran realized that right after Bush put them on a three country kill list, which he called the "axis of evil" then proceeded to attack the first country on the list.  Should the US (with its enormous stockpile of nukes and still the only country to have used them aggressively) have anything to say about other countries developing nukes as it has?  No.  It should shut up and mind its own business unless directly attacked or threatened.

 

[tengen]

A thought I've been entertaining lately: Putin is the 21st century's version of Hitler, vilifying and jailing minorities, looking for some "lebensraum" and protecting the "volk" from dastardly foreigners. Not as crazy but perhaps only slightly less sinister.

[constructive]

A thought I've been entertaining lately: Putin is the 21st century's version of Hitler, vilifying and jailing minorities, looking for some "lebensraum" and protecting the "volk" from dastardly foreigners. Not as crazy but perhaps only slightly less sinister.

 

In terms of violence Putin doesn't compare to Hitler at all. He's mild compared to Khrushchev or Brezhnev.

[Palantir]

^Ask the Caucasus......

[Cardboard]

Some people here talk probably like many did in the U.S. when Germany took over Austria, then invaded the Czech Republic. They continued the same talk when Germany invaded Poland, Belgium, France, etc. until they got attacked themselves on a small island very far from the mainland. Some probably still argued at that point that they should only take care of Japan and to let the European deal with their own issues.

 

The world simply does not work that way. The only reason why the Soviet Union did not invade Western Europe is because the U.S., Britain and France said put one foot in Western Germany and we are sending you to hell. Putin is from that era and mentality whether you like it or not. So you may have to deal with him in a fashion that you do not like. It is not much different than when your boy comes home crying because he is being bullied in school. Putin is now pushing to see how far he can go. Only force will stop him.

 

The U.S. is also rich and powerful and with that comes a certain amount of responsibility as to what goes on beyond its borders. There is also a strong economic incentive to spread its values around the world which is good for Coca-Cola, GE, McDonald's and many others. To think that the U.S. would be as well off by staying put at home and letting whomever doing as they please until they touch U.S. ground is beyond naive.

 

Cardboard

[matts]

Some people here talk probably like many did in the U.S. when Germany took over Austria, then invaded the Czech Republic. They continued the same talk when Germany invaded Poland, Belgium, France, etc. until they got attacked themselves on a small island very far from the mainland. Some probably still argued at that point that they should only take care of Japan and to let the European deal with their own issues.

 

The world simply does not work that way. The only reason why the Soviet Union did not invade Western Europe is because the U.S., Britain and France said put one foot in Western Germany and we are sending you to hell. Putin is from that era and mentality whether you like it or not. So you may have to deal with him in a fashion that you do not like. It is not much different than when your boy comes home crying because he is being bullied in school. Putin is now pushing to see how far he can go. Only force will stop him.

 

The U.S. is also rich and powerful and with that comes a certain amount of responsibility as to what goes on beyond its borders. There is also a strong economic incentive to spread its values around the world which is good for Coca-Cola, GE, McDonald's and many others. To think that the U.S. would be as well off by staying put at home and letting whomever doing as they please until they touch U.S. ground is beyond naive.

 

Cardboard

 

So what do you think the West should do with Putin right now, and how does that scenario play out over the next 5 years?

[goldfinger]

Some people here talk probably like many did in the U.S. when Germany took over Austria, then invaded the Czech Republic. They continued the same talk when Germany invaded Poland, Belgium, France, etc. until they got attacked themselves on a small island very far from the mainland. Some probably still argued at that point that they should only take care of Japan and to let the European deal with their own issues.

 

The world simply does not work that way. The only reason why the Soviet Union did not invade Western Europe is because the U.S., Britain and France said put one foot in Western Germany and we are sending you to hell. Putin is from that era and mentality whether you like it or not. So you may have to deal with him in a fashion that you do not like. It is not much different than when your boy comes home crying because he is being bullied in school. Putin is now pushing to see how far he can go. Only force will stop him.

 

The U.S. is also rich and powerful and with that comes a certain amount of responsibility as to what goes on beyond its borders. There is also a strong economic incentive to spread its values around the world which is good for Coca-Cola, GE, McDonald's and many others. To think that the U.S. would be as well off by staying put at home and letting whomever doing as they please until they touch U.S. ground is beyond naive.

 

I agree with some of what you say except that I think Russia is after recuperating the lost republics of the soviet era only. Russia did not digest well the splitting of their empire after the fall of the soviet union, especially Ukraine with its agriculture and other resources and lots of russian speaking people. Germany was after all Europe and more because Hitler believed in the need of a vital living space after all these wars that they had to fight for centuries being located in between so many empires and kingdoms.

[rkbabang]

Some people here talk probably like many did in the U.S. when Germany took over Austria, then invaded the Czech Republic. They continued the same talk when Germany invaded Poland, Belgium, France, etc. until they got attacked themselves on a small island very far from the mainland. Some probably still argued at that point that they should only take care of Japan and to let the European deal with their own issues.

 

The world simply does not work that way. The only reason why the Soviet Union did not invade Western Europe is because the U.S., Britain and France said put one foot in Western Germany and we are sending you to hell. Putin is from that era and mentality whether you like it or not. So you may have to deal with him in a fashion that you do not like. It is not much different than when your boy comes home crying because he is being bullied in school. Putin is now pushing to see how far he can go. Only force will stop him.

 

The U.S. is also rich and powerful and with that comes a certain amount of responsibility as to what goes on beyond its borders. There is also a strong economic incentive to spread its values around the world which is good for Coca-Cola, GE, McDonald's and many others. To think that the U.S. would be as well off by staying put at home and letting whomever doing as they please until they touch U.S. ground is beyond naive.

 

Cardboard

 

Putin is not Hitler.  He doesn't want to exterminate whole races of people or take over the world (as far as I know). 

 

BTW WWI was the real cause of WWII and posturing, saving face, and refusing to break treaties was the cause of WWI, which aside from setting off the chain of events which caused WWII, WWI itself pretty much wiped out all the wealth created by the industrial revolution up to that point in Europe..  Not fun.

 

While you can argue that the US had to intervene in Europe to stop Hitler, I'd argue that had the US not intervened in Europe in WWI, there would have been a stalemate with no clear winners, and thus no crazy German reparations, no Nazi Party, and no Adolf Hitler (he'd just be a bad painter).  We had to go in and clean up a mess we created.

[original mungerville]

Russia deploying troops is very bad.....and if the US and Europe do nothing there will be even wider implications than Russia "just" taking over Ukraine.  Europe, the US and Russia signed a treaty agreeing to the borders of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes.

If the US and Europe do nothing to help Ukraine against Russian aggression then other US allies around the world will see the US as both weak and unwilling to live up to their commitments. Think Asia and the various countries in the region counting on US support against China. They would see this as a sign that the US can not be counted on in times of crisis and would start seeking  other alliances.  This could be one of those pivitol moments in US foreign policy. Lets hope Obama gets it right!!

 

cheers

Zorro

 

Zorrofan,

 

Do you really think the US wants to get involved fighting Russia in their backyard? What makes you think they can win on the ground in Putin's backyard? Do you think Putin would cave to US pressure?

 

Look, I'm no expert but if the US doesn't back down, let Europe negotiate with Putin, this can spin out of control.

 

 

OM

 

Does the US WANT to get involved? Of course not, but I am saying that all of our allies are watching to see what happens. How does Taiwan feel given the US is supposed to protect them from China? South Korea from North Korea? Israel vs Iran. What message will doing nothing send to countries such as China and Iran? The longer term costs (in foreign policy) will be huge if nothing is done.

 

I don't want a war, and i don't think there will be one. What I am saying is that Europe (NATO) and the US have to do something. I don't imagine Putin wants a war either but he is counting on the US to talk, talk, talk some more and do nothing. Putin put 15,000 troops in Crimea because he is not expecting a fight. If NATO/US puts a few hundred troops into Ukraine as part of a "training exercise" Putin will get the message. Restart the missile defense shield along the Polish border with Russia as well. Putin doesn't give a rat's A@@ about being kicked out of the G8.  He will care about the missile defense shield, about sanctions that hurt economically, and of course he will understand force.  A few troops in Ukraine sends him a message and he will back down.  Doing nothing costs more in the long run.

 

cheers

Zorro

 

 

Again, I'm no expert but I don't think putting a few US troops in the Ukraine is going to do anything but escalate a conflict. My guess is Putin does not want to be seen giving up influence over the Ukraine - especially directly to the US. So I don't think that happens - but again, I'm just talking out of my ass here, I know nothing in this area.

 

I could see the US/EU really opposing Russia with sanctions, Russia taking Crimea, tensions getting a little high, and then Merkel gets sent to negotiate with Putin and everyone saves face over the rest of the Ukraine. But I can't see putting US troops in there making any sense.

 

 

[turar]

It seems like the majority of Crimean population support the Russian invasion so far. Here are some pics from on-the-ground in Crimea. http://4strongman.livejournal.com/115758.html

Locals with orange+black bands and blue+white+red banners are Russia supporters.

 

Also, as a history backgrounder, it's illuminating to realize how deep Russian history in Ukraine goes into the ages. One of the first Russian/Slavic states was Kievan Rus' (Kievan Russia), with a capital in Kiev. Moscow didn't even exist at the time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27

[Cardboard]

What the U.S. should do and Europe? I would highly recommend reading this commentary:

 

www.project-syndicate.org%2Fcommentary%2Fcharles-tannock-calls-for-iran-style-sanctions-against-russia-until-it-withdraws-its-forces-from-ukraine

 

Sorry if the link does not work but, you can Google it. Disappointed I upgraded my IOS.

 

Cardboard

[value-is-what-you-get]

Suppose the US had their only permanently unfrozen and one of their largest naval bases in a territory that was largely inhabited by English speaking pro-American people which used to be part of the United States.  For geographical comparison, let's say the territory in question is the States of Florida and Georgia, with the base in question being in Florida.  Then, the Florida/Georgia government becomes bankrupt and starts shopping around a deal to bail them out.  Seems like the best deal is what the Cubans are offering so they decide to become indebted to them. 

 

Then of course all of the pro-American citizens in the former US territory (Florida) become enraged and demonstrate and oust the leader who is contemplating this deal with the enemy.  Now the territory is in flux and control over their largest naval base is in jeopardy and all the pro-American english speaking citizens in the zone containing said naval base start getting worried about the anti-Americans who are on the other side of this argument and are also citizens of the same territory but in a different region.

 

What would the American response to this situation be? 

 

Would they be hailed as heroes in the press for looking out for their own, restoring order and showing strength in light of political upheaval?

 

Why is Putin compared to Hitler for a similar response?

 

The military-industrial complex requires only one fuel - an enemy - and without it would wither and shrink. 

 

Invert, always invert.

[Orange]

Suppose the US had their only permanently unfrozen and one of their largest naval bases in a territory that was largely inhabited by English speaking pro-American people which used to be part of the United States.  For geographical comparison, let's say the territory in question is the States of Florida and Georgia, with the base in question being in Florida.  Then, the Florida/Georgia government becomes bankrupt and starts shopping around a deal to bail them out.  Seems like the best deal is what the Cubans are offering so they decide to become indebted to them. 

 

Then of course all of the pro-American citizens in the former US territory (Florida) become enraged and demonstrate and oust the leader who is contemplating this deal with the enemy.  Now the territory is in flux and control over their largest naval base is in jeopardy and all the pro-American english speaking citizens in the zone containing said naval base start getting worried about the anti-Americans who are on the other side of this argument and are also citizens of the same territory but in a different region.

 

What would the American response to this situation be? 

 

Would they be hailed as heroes in the press for looking out for their own, restoring order and showing strength in light of political upheaval?

 

Why is Putin compared to Hitler for a similar response?

 

The military-industrial complex requires only one fuel - an enemy - and without it would wither and shrink. 

 

Invert, always invert.

 

 

Amen. The fact that some people want the US to go to war or make some sort of military strike because of this situation is utter madness.

[matts]

What the U.S. should do and Europe? I would highly recommend reading this commentary:

 

www.project-syndicate.org%2Fcommentary%2Fcharles-tannock-calls-for-iran-style-sanctions-against-russia-until-it-withdraws-its-forces-from-ukraine

 

Sorry if the link does not work but, you can Google it. Disappointed I upgraded my IOS.

 

Cardboard

 

If the West takes such drastic action what is stopping Russia from retaliating? Iran had nothing the world needed. What's stopping putin from turning off the gas in response? How does Europe replace 30% of their gas needs in the short term? over the next 2 years? how about over the next 6 months? How much do heating costs spike in Germany and France and what kind of pressure would that put on the politicians?

 

[adesigar]

Suppose the US had their only permanently unfrozen and one of their largest naval bases in a territory that was largely inhabited by English speaking pro-American people which used to be part of the United States.  For geographical comparison, let's say the territory in question is the States of Florida and Georgia, with the base in question being in Florida.  Then, the Florida/Georgia government becomes bankrupt and starts shopping around a deal to bail them out.  Seems like the best deal is what the Cubans are offering so they decide to become indebted to them. 

 

Then of course all of the pro-American citizens in the former US territory (Florida) become enraged and demonstrate and oust the leader who is contemplating this deal with the enemy.  Now the territory is in flux and control over their largest naval base is in jeopardy and all the pro-American english speaking citizens in the zone containing said naval base start getting worried about the anti-Americans who are on the other side of this argument and are also citizens of the same territory but in a different region.

 

What would the American response to this situation be? 

 

Would they be hailed as heroes in the press for looking out for their own, restoring order and showing strength in light of political upheaval?

 

Why is Putin compared to Hitler for a similar response?

 

The military-industrial complex requires only one fuel - an enemy - and without it would wither and shrink. 

 

Invert, always invert.

 

Maybe you should have mentioned in comparison that the territory got freedom from decades of being treated as second class to the main country or that they gave up their defenses on assurances of protection from the people Invading them. That their country has been meddled with since it was formed. So imagine it from the points of view of the Ukranians like you said Invert, always Invert.

[rkbabang]

Amen. The fact that some people want the US to go to war or make some sort of military strike because of this situation is utter madness.

 

Yes, whenever I hear the war hawks rattling their sabers, I think to myself that someone was smacked upside the head too many times as a child.

[tengen]

I don't advocate sending in troops. I do think the rest of the world needs to take strong measures to let Putin know that his game is up. Some ideas: boycott Russian goods, deny visas to Russians, and suspend financial dealings with Russia. I am disappointed that some people are suggesting that now might be a good time to buy shares in Russian companies.

[rkbabang]

I don't advocate sending in troops. I do think the rest of the world needs to take strong measures to let Putin know that his game is up. Some ideas: boycott Russian goods, deny visas to Russians, and suspend financial dealings with Russia. I am disappointed that some people are suggesting that now might be a good time to buy shares in Russian companies.

 

Why is that disappointing?  It suggests a belief that war will be avoided and that all of this will blow over and turn out okay. 

[constructive]

I don't advocate sending in troops. I do think the rest of the world needs to take strong measures to let Putin know that his game is up. Some ideas: boycott Russian goods, deny visas to Russians, and suspend financial dealings with Russia. I am disappointed that some people are suggesting that now might be a good time to buy shares in Russian companies.

 

Do you think other countries should have suspended financial dealings with the US when we invaded Iraq? Our military has killed a lot more people in the past decade than Russia has.

[Palantir]

^Why does it matter? The US' goal should be to defend US interests, not to worry about whether it is hypocritical or not...

[constructive]

^Why does it matter? The US' goal should be to defend US interests, not to worry about whether it is hypocritical or not...

 

My point isn't hypocrisy, it's just having a sense of perspective. Putin isn't history's greatest monster any more than Obama deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

[Palantir]

^Fair enough.

[wachtwoord]

I don't advocate sending in troops. I do think the rest of the world needs to take strong measures to let Putin know that his game is up. Some ideas: boycott Russian goods, deny visas to Russians, and suspend financial dealings with Russia. I am disappointed that some people are suggesting that now might be a good time to buy shares in Russian companies.

 

Do you think other countries should have suspended financial dealings with the US when we invaded Iraq? Our military has killed a lot more people in the past decade than Russia has.

 

Ethically yes, logically no.

[wachtwoord]

Also, and this is something I have noticed in Europe too, people seem to think Putin is unpopular, he isn't. Granted there are other factors to consider but he is generally as or more popular than other world leaders in their own countries. This misinterpretation of Putin's position seems to be borne out of the assumption that everyone should believe the same thing. For example, the "anti-gay" legislation caused a huge furoe in my country. Not only was the legislation rather tame in comparison to similar legislation in other "friendly" countries but it was also hugely popular because Russian people are homophobic. That isn't particularly nice but Russian people are entitled to that view. The way to change that probably isn't to tell them that they have 19th century views and generally berate everything they do. Moreover, not taking a hard line, in this case, wouldn't assumed elsewhere to be a sign of weakness esp. when the US wouldn't be fighting for anything, it would be a sign of deep insecurity that would terrify much of the world. On top of this, Russia is fairly vulnerable to economic sanctions.

 

Isn't the USA the country where they lock you up you release evidence of war crimes to the public? To me they have lost any and all right to speak after that.

[Guest ajc]

One of the reasons why Russia’s western neighbors keenly embraced shale gas production is that Russia has on various occasions used Gazprom as a foreign policy instrument. It comes as no surprise, then, that Poland and Ukraine — who own respectively the first and the third largest shale gas deposits in Europe — has responded with optimism to the prospects of shale gas extraction that could radically change their balance of energy dependence on Russia. 

 

In several years the real prospects of (Ukraine's) Yuzivs’ka field will be known better: Shell started test drilling already in 2012 at a lot leased before the PSA on Yuzivs’ka field was signed. Yet, already now shale gas production is severely contested by Gazprom and Russian high state officials. It is also a topic of hot domestic debate, with ecological concerns being the main contentious issue. It has became clear that the possible prospects of gas price reduction that the shale gas could bring to Ukraine is not merely a matter of economic losses for Gazprom, but also the one of political stakes for Russian foreign policy.

 

 

From a report about what Ukraine (and Poland's) substantial shale gas reserves might mean for Russo-European geopolitical dynamics, Gazprom's profitability and - as a consequence - Putin's influence and popularity at home.

 

Some folks are arguing that this is a major motivating factor for the Russian invasion.

 

http://www.pecob.eu/shale-gas-pl-ua