Phoenix01 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Here is an interesting graph. If history repeats itself, we will have some really interesting discussions at the FFH AGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 HMMMMm so if we follow the SAME pattern we'd go from 16000 --> 13000 or about a 20% drop whereas it was previously a 50% drop from 400 --> 200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 "Pattern" recognition, jaj! It can suck to be human no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Seriously do you guys buy this "trashy" analogy. We are worlds away from 1929. In the spring before the Crash, you had alot of leveraged positions wiped out by margin calls. You had folks buying stock on 10% margin. You had most available credit being soaked up by the market and other speculative buying in real estate and other assets. Now the Fed has forced fed liquidity to the markets and the cash ends up back on deposit with the Fed. The leverage is no where near the levels of 1929. I guess with folks talking about this, bargain hunters can find more bargains from folks who sell due this flimsy analysis. I am not finding as many screaming buys today but there are some modestly priced stocks and I invested in my first "compounder" since pre-2008. Excuse me if this was sarcasism sometimes I am pretty dense. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I picked up some lancashire this week too :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Seriously do you guys buy this "trashy" analogy. We are worlds away from 1929. In the spring before the Crash, you had alot of leveraged positions wiped out by margin calls. You had folks buying stock on 10% margin. You had most available credit being soaked up by the market and other speculative buying in real estate and other assets. Now the Fed has forced fed liquidity to the markets and the cash ends up back on deposit with the Fed. The leverage is no where near the levels of 1929. I guess with folks talking about this, bargain hunters can find more bargains from folks who sell due this flimsy analysis. I am not finding as many screaming buys today but there are some modestly priced stocks and I invested in my first "compounder" since pre-2008. Excuse me if this was sarcasism sometimes I am pretty dense. Packer Packer, very well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'm not in the camp that thinks another "great depression" is likely but I do think rough seas are ahead in the not too terribly distant future. As an example, a lot of people are moving from cash to stocks since cash and bonds "don't pay anything." I don't see how that doesn't cause asset mispricing. I believe this is happening on a not insignificant scale, too. On another note as the above graph, http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/09/10/221124533/study-says-americas-income-gap-widest-since-great-depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Here is an interesting graph. If history repeats itself, we will have some really interesting discussions at the FFH AGM. to me the analogy that seems best is late 90s. not as crazy clearly. but we're headed in that direction. I think it's pretty clear there is kind of a two tiered market emerging. this is what happened in late 90s. longer term, that's not necessarily bad for the kind of stocks we tend to like. they actually did very well once the bloom came off the rose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Some Lines Say Maybe the Stock Market Will Go Down http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-12/some-lines-say-maybe-the-stock-market-will-go-down.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 when even on reddit you see people talking about how to prepare for the pop of the stock bubble, you know that there is no bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix01 Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Seriously do you guys buy this "trashy" analogy. We are worlds away from 1929. In the spring before the Crash, you had alot of leveraged positions wiped out by margin calls. You had folks buying stock on 10% margin. You had most available credit being soaked up by the market and other speculative buying in real estate and other assets. Now the Fed has forced fed liquidity to the markets and the cash ends up back on deposit with the Fed. The leverage is no where near the levels of 1929. I guess with folks talking about this, bargain hunters can find more bargains from folks who sell due this flimsy analysis. I am not finding as many screaming buys today but there are some modestly priced stocks and I invested in my first "compounder" since pre-2008. Excuse me if this was sarcasism sometimes I am pretty dense. Packer Packer, Technical analysis does not have a fundamental basis that holds up, otherwise the quants would always win. Technical analysis works until is does not work, and then your screwed. The point of posting the graph is to highlight that the trading pattern then and now are similar. It is an observation, not a conclusion. I do not have an opinion, but it is an interesting observation. Will it be a self-fulfilling prophesy? Will it be another Internet joke? Nobody knows. There is no point in either supporting or rejecting the graph. Just enjoy it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yitech Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Why The Dow In 2014 Isn't 1929 In Charts http://education.investors.com/investors-corner/689822-1929-crash-not-in-the-offing-in-2014.htm What the graph would look like if you lengthen the time and normalize the scale. It sounds smart when the doomsayers like Marc Faber are constantly predicting 40% corrections every 3 months, but no one seems to care about their prediction track records. I guess CNBC prefers entertainments that help ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 ...I invested in my first "compounder" since pre-2008. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Packer, Technical analysis does not have a fundamental basis that holds up, otherwise the quants would always win. Technical analysis works until is does not work, and then your screwed. The point of posting the graph is to highlight that the trading pattern then and now are similar. It is an observation, not a conclusion. I do not have an opinion, but it is an interesting observation. Will it be a self-fulfilling prophesy? Will it be another Internet joke? Nobody knows. There is no point in either supporting or rejecting the graph. Just enjoy it!!! Sorry but this has nothing to do with technical analysis. This is just painting. When you look at the DOW now it has already broken the graph. And there was never ever a crash in the history of the stock market that was anounced in the news paper. When you look at how crashes work psychologically you would clearly see that a crash can only come as a surprise. When its in the news act the other way round is historically the better approach to make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 https://www.tdwaterhouse.ca/video/index.jsp?language=english&playlist=1&portal=1&video=210&referral=webbroker-eng Ryan Lewenza, Vice President & North American Strategist, TD Wealth weighs in on the chart... Tks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 ...I invested in my first "compounder" since pre-2008. Yes? Wild guess: IBM It isn't often that you find one of Buffett's big four trotting around his purchase price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix01 Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 https://www.tdwaterhouse.ca/video/index.jsp?language=english&playlist=1&portal=1&video=210&referral=webbroker-eng Ryan Lewenza, Vice President & North American Strategist, TD Wealth weighs in on the chart... Tks, S He does not look like he believes what he is saying. However, he also does not know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now