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Posted

Seriously do you guys buy this "trashy" analogy.  We are worlds away from 1929.  In the spring before the Crash, you had alot of leveraged positions wiped out by margin calls.  You had folks buying stock on 10% margin.  You had most available credit being soaked up by the market and other speculative buying in real estate and other assets.  Now the Fed has forced fed liquidity to the markets and the cash ends up back on deposit with the Fed.  The leverage is no where near the levels of 1929.  I guess with folks talking about this, bargain hunters can find more bargains from folks who sell due this flimsy analysis.  I am not finding as many screaming buys today but there are some modestly priced stocks and I invested in my first "compounder" since pre-2008.  Excuse me if this was sarcasism sometimes I am pretty dense.

 

Packer

Posted

Seriously do you guys buy this "trashy" analogy.  We are worlds away from 1929.  In the spring before the Crash, you had alot of leveraged positions wiped out by margin calls.  You had folks buying stock on 10% margin.  You had most available credit being soaked up by the market and other speculative buying in real estate and other assets.  Now the Fed has forced fed liquidity to the markets and the cash ends up back on deposit with the Fed.  The leverage is no where near the levels of 1929.  I guess with folks talking about this, bargain hunters can find more bargains from folks who sell due this flimsy analysis.  I am not finding as many screaming buys today but there are some modestly priced stocks and I invested in my first "compounder" since pre-2008.  Excuse me if this was sarcasism sometimes I am pretty dense.

 

Packer

 

Packer, very well said.

Posted

I'm not in the camp that thinks another "great depression" is likely but I do think rough seas are ahead in the not too terribly distant future. As an example, a lot of people are moving from cash to stocks since cash and bonds  "don't pay anything." I don't see how that doesn't cause asset mispricing. I believe this is happening on a not insignificant scale, too.

 

On another note as the above graph,

 

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/09/10/221124533/study-says-americas-income-gap-widest-since-great-depression

Guest wellmont
Posted

Here is an interesting graph. If history repeats itself, we will have some really interesting discussions at the FFH AGM.

 

to me the analogy that seems best is late 90s. not as crazy clearly. but we're headed in that direction. I think it's pretty clear there is kind of a two tiered market emerging. this is what happened in late 90s. longer term, that's not necessarily bad for the kind of stocks we tend to like. they actually did very well once the bloom came off the rose.

Posted

Seriously do you guys buy this "trashy" analogy.  We are worlds away from 1929.  In the spring before the Crash, you had alot of leveraged positions wiped out by margin calls.  You had folks buying stock on 10% margin.  You had most available credit being soaked up by the market and other speculative buying in real estate and other assets.  Now the Fed has forced fed liquidity to the markets and the cash ends up back on deposit with the Fed.  The leverage is no where near the levels of 1929.  I guess with folks talking about this, bargain hunters can find more bargains from folks who sell due this flimsy analysis.  I am not finding as many screaming buys today but there are some modestly priced stocks and I invested in my first "compounder" since pre-2008.  Excuse me if this was sarcasism sometimes I am pretty dense.

 

Packer

 

Packer,

Technical analysis does not have a fundamental basis that holds up, otherwise the quants would always win.  Technical analysis works until is does not work, and then your screwed.

 

The point of posting the graph is to highlight that the trading pattern then and now are similar.  It is an observation, not a conclusion.

 

I do not have an opinion, but it is an interesting observation.  Will it be a self-fulfilling prophesy?  Will it be another Internet joke?  Nobody knows.

 

There is no point in either supporting or rejecting the graph.  Just enjoy it!!!

Posted

Why The Dow In 2014 Isn't 1929 In Charts

http://education.investors.com/investors-corner/689822-1929-crash-not-in-the-offing-in-2014.htm

 

What the graph would look like if you lengthen the time and normalize the scale. It sounds smart when the doomsayers like Marc Faber are constantly predicting 40% corrections every 3 months, but no one seems to care about their prediction track records. I guess CNBC prefers entertainments that help ratings.

CRNR_140213.png.6e016baeb273bc3147d5f09bd410708e.png

Posted

Packer,

Technical analysis does not have a fundamental basis that holds up, otherwise the quants would always win.  Technical analysis works until is does not work, and then your screwed.

 

The point of posting the graph is to highlight that the trading pattern then and now are similar.  It is an observation, not a conclusion.

 

I do not have an opinion, but it is an interesting observation.  Will it be a self-fulfilling prophesy?  Will it be another Internet joke?  Nobody knows.

 

There is no point in either supporting or rejecting the graph.  Just enjoy it!!!

 

Sorry but this has nothing to do with technical analysis. This is just painting. When you look at the DOW now it has already broken the graph. And there was never ever a crash in the history of the stock market that was anounced in the news paper. When you look at how crashes work psychologically you would clearly see that a crash can only come as a surprise.

When its in the news act the other way round is historically the better approach to make money.

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