Mephistopheles

JD Vance: Trump is Hitler Trump becomes nominee: Let me kiss his ass and be his VP! sorry, I had to! Still love you man

In politics it’s good to be honest and recognize your faults, and change your mind when the facts change. Not speaking directly of Canada here, but in general I was always and am a free market guy. I thought it was idiotic to start trade wars. But, I can see now that Trump does it as a bargaining tool. He wants everyone to think he’s crazier than he actually is. I’m sure the U.S. will get concessions via his antics. I don’t think the tariffs will last. He’s a businessman surrounded by wealthy businessmen who all likely hate the tariffs too. Again, not sure if it makes sense with Canada specifically. But, here I am, I was wrong about Trump’s tariffs. Having said that I still think he is a fascist autocrat. Thank god for checks and balances!

Ah. I always thought that the heavy crude had to be diluted down but that the light stuff can go on its own. So shale oil on its own is worthless for most fuels?

10% tarriff on Canadian oil. and we have OXY at a 52 week low. time to buy?!

But what the govt wants in perpetuity is irrelevant to what Trump wants over the next 4 years. Calabria said it wasn’t done in the first term because of COVID. What exactly does he mean by that? Is it that they couldn’t do a big capital raise when markets froze up in 2020? By now the companies have retained enough earnings (built enough capital) that it should be easier. I’m cautiously long a small amount of the commons. I’ll buy some prefs too, as a hedge. But the first time, all the incentives were there: John Paulson, Steve Mnuchin, Calabria…and somehow it wasn’t done. Is it the bank lobby that stopped it? Paulson was at the inauguration and now Ackman seems to have Trump’s ear. So maybe odds are higher? If not, I’m sure Trump will get it done in his next term. Third time is a charm!

Not to mention his sales of Wells Fargo in the 20s during Covid

I haven't been following too closely here, any reason why the commons are tanking again? The prefs appear to be stable. Is the market expecting a massive dilution?

But what if Trump loses? This seems like a coin flip. Maybe up 100% if he wins and down 50% if he loses? Ok so it’s a good bet mathematically but it would have to be a small bet. Thoughts?

Biggest this year - Autonation: Fairly straightforward, solid ROC and valuation, and a buyback monster

My concern here is- why the hell hasn’t Buffett bought more?? Is it thumb sucking or is he making a macro call?

I like seeing these people use media to move the stock. Creates more volatility, inefficiency and opportunity. I made good money off of selling puts on GME. No rules and free for all is how it should be, unless you’re specifically hurting the reputation of a company. Like, who cares about the stock price movement, care more about reputation hit to the company (ie causing a bank run). That should be the focus. All market participants should know the rules of the game with pump and dump.

Apparently Mnuchin did not push back, even though Calabria didn’t like the idea.

I just listened to this. Learned stuff I hadn’t known. It seemed hopeful until it got to the part where he discussed the end of the NWS and how the lawyers at Treasury wanted to increase the liquidation preference in exchange. He stated he doesn’t agree with this and said it would be something to watch for in a second Trump term. Seems like we had a well meaning FHFA and Secretary of Treasury, but the career lawyers at Treasury got their way….

Hi Parsad - I have no VPN. Weird that there are so many IP addresses. Anyway, it appears to be working now on both my phone and iPad. Haven’t had a chance to try my computer yet but am hopeful!

I’m still having issues. Miraculously I am logged in now on my phone after changing my pw again. But I tried the same new pw on my iPad and it says “IP address banned”. So just posting here in case I get banned again. Yesterday I had the following message pop up (see attached screenshot).

If you sub in 2019's pre tax margin's to last year's revenues, the stock is at 12x, so yea a bit over 10x. But currently it's a bit under 10x. I just made up the # 10 bc I was too lazy to check but it's right in that ballpark. Agreed it's a great industry. I have only looked at AN and LAD so far. What do you think of LAD? Not nearly as much in terms of buybacks so that's why I avoided it. What made you buy GPI?

Added to Autonation. Buyback machine trading at like 10x earnings or something with high returns of capital and a great management team. What more can you ask for?

Yea, IBKR sucks. I am going to call Fidelity to ask for a rate match. I've heard Schwab has matched in the past as well. How do you like Fidelity's platform vs. IBKR? Any particular tips on how to get them to match?

Thank you everyone for the feedback!

Yea, IBKR customer service fails yet again....so back to square one. These shares do not show up as lent securities in my activity statement. Why am I getting payment in lieu?

Ah - so, they don't show up on my lent shares, because IBKR took the shares as collateral against my margin, and lent them. So even though I am not directly lending them, I still suffer the consequences of the tax treatment? So the question here is - if I opt out of the "stock yield enhancement program", will it make a difference? Meaning, IBKR will still take stock from me as collateral and lend it as they wish? So, it's not an IRS rule like the rep told me (which I am pulling my hair out trying to find), but it's just securities being lent?

Just getting around to do my taxes now. Some of my dividends were reported as miscellaneous income (as opposed to ordinary or qualified dividends). Unfortunately, these are taxed as ordinary income, and not at the preferential dividend rate. I did some digging and found that this line is for dividends on securities lent out for short selling. However, the shares that received the dividends were not lent out shares. So I called IBKR and they told me that because I am on margin, a certain amount of dividends will be allocated as this. This is the first I am hearing of this, is this true? If you buy stock on margin, the dividends don't get the preferential tax rate? For example, out of the $.12 JOE dividend in 4Q 2023, $.10 came in as a qualified dividend, and $.02 was "payment in lieu". That $.02 I have to pay regular income tax on. My JOE shares were never lent to short sellers. I don't really trust IBKR customer service, thus I am asking here. Thanks!

Mnuchin went on cnbc before Trump was even sworn in, and said he wanted to release the companies. He should have had it done long before Covid. As two cities mentioned, why the fuck did he keep fighting Fairholme et al in court?? How hard is it to drop a case, to settle if you’re the Sec of Treasury. Is the bureaucracy really that bad?

Why would Trump help this time around when he didn’t last time? When his Treasury secretary explicitly stated it was his goal and did nothing. What will be different this time?

Does anyone know if Whitney Tilson will have the meet up on Friday night?