nkp007
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Posts posted by nkp007
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What time does the Tilson event normally end? Flying in at 9
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It sure looks like it. Completely empty in downtown other than the Old Market Area from 6:30pm on. Barely any traffic on the roads. Cheers!
I'm sure a ton of people are coming in today. Hotel rooms were probably generally empty last night, but will be jammed tonight and tomorrow.
I'm coming in today. Anyone staying at the Doubletree? I'm gonna stop by the Tilson cocktail tonight.
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I like to read a lot of articles and I also drive a lot. I'm trying to combine the two safely.
Is there a phone application that reads websites / online articles out loud? Kind of like my own personal radio station for articles.
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When they say read 500 pages a day of material, that's an exaggeration right? He means skim for the most part right? No way in hell I can ever see myself being able to read that much in a day!
i feel like a slacker today :)
no skimming- actual reading. that's why they made $50m each last year and you maybe slightly less. :)
There's skimming involved. If you're reading through data / sections of wording that doesn't seem as relevant, you should skim past it. Huge time saver.
Reading is an art, not a read-every-word science.
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I doubt it will be Jain. Buffett is entrusting his baby, and I'm guessing intangibles will play a large role in whom he feels comfortable entrusting BRK with. I feel Jain being a foreign, "quant" will get stereotyped into that role, even if it is unconsciously. Furthermore, he lives in Jersey, and I don't see an old Indian guy moving to Omaha.
On the other hand, a bright, young, talented, white, midwestern insurance executive internal to BRK? I nominate Mr Tad Montross.
What?
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance
In modern psychology, cognitive dissonance is the discomfort experienced when simultaneously holding two or more conflicting cognitions: ideas, beliefs, values or emotional reactions. In a state of dissonance, people may sometimes feel "disequilibrium": frustration, hunger, dread, guilt, anger, embarrassment, anxiety, etc.[1] The phrase was coined by Leon Festinger in his 1956 book When Prophecy Fails, which chronicled the followers of a UFO cult as reality clashed with their fervent belief in an impending apocalypse.[2][3] Festinger subsequently (1957) published a book called A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance in which he outlines the theory. Cognitive dissonance is one of the most influential and extensively studied theories in social psychology.
The theory of cognitive dissonance in social psychology proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance by altering existing cognitions, adding new ones to create a consistent belief system, or alternatively by reducing the importance of any one of the dissonant elements.[1] It is the distressing mental state that people feel when they "find themselves doing things that don't fit with what they know, or having opinions that do not fit with other opinions they hold."[4] A key assumption is that people want their expectations to meet reality, creating a sense of equilibrium.[5] Likewise, another assumption is that a person will avoid situations or information sources that give rise to feelings of uneasiness, or dissonance.[1]
Cognitive dissonance theory explains human behavior by positing that people have a bias to seek consonance between their expectations and reality. According to Festinger, people engage in a process he termed "dissonance reduction", which can be achieved in one of three ways: lowering the importance of one of the discordant factors, adding consonant elements, or changing one of the dissonant factors.[6] This bias sheds light on otherwise puzzling, irrational, and even destructive behavior.
Note: I don't have an investment in Apple either way. It is likely to go up as it is to go down. Either way, I don't care. However, the trumpeting of an uncertain situation as a certain one reeks of CD.
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Anything I can't spend at a gentleman's club is not a safe store of value.
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A lot of people are predicting prices will stay flat for many, many years.
LOL. As if prices ever stay flat on anything.
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I think the son's of bitches killed it! That sucks. Cheers!
Such a travesty.
On a happier note, I love how you end your posts with "Cheers!". It makes even bad situations slightly more optimistic :)
E.g.
Hey guys. Looks like the market is closed today. It turns out that an auto-immune disease is spreading throughout the population in the northeast United States. People are dying and then coming back to life as demonic monsters craving the flesh of others. Cheers!
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I've got to ask - many of those that are long AIG can truly digest the 350+ page annual report?
Hence, I just stick to the micro/small caps.
I guess the Berkshire Hathaway report, at only 112 pages, would be the much longer of the two if it provided an equivalent amount of information about each subsidiary.
Understanding a business doesn't mean you understand every single element of it, but rather that you understand the probability of your upside and downside.
The simplest businesses to understand are lemonade stands. If you're going for simplicity, buy a mafia network of them.
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~80% of my family's net worth is in $AIG $BAC warrants, probably an even split between the two.
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So punish people for looking? LOL. I don't think this is even constitutional.
How do you enforce this? Take deposits when people enter? Goodbye traffic.
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How have you comfortably made acquisitions of entire companies in the past without having account firms go through their books? How do you get comfortable waiving such due diligence?
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In sum, things are a little worse than we thought...but only a little bit. And it should stabilize. ::)
http://www.propertywire.com/news/north-america/canada-real-estate-prices-201303217581.html
Canadian property prices not expected to move much in 2013 or 2014
THURSDAY, 21 MARCH 2013
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity and prices as supply responds to lower demand.
The residential real estate market had slowed as a result of changes to mortgage lending rules and guidelines which were introduced in August of last year.
The national average home price is now projected to edge down by 0.2% to $362,600 in 2013. This is slightly lower than was previously forecast. While largely flat at the national level, gains in excess of inflation are still expected in the Prairies and in Newfoundland. British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick are forecast to record declines in their provincial average prices this year.
The national average price is forecast to edge back up by 1.7% to $368,700 in 2014. As in 2013, Alberta, Newfoundland, and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan and Manitoba are forecast to see the biggest gains. The forecast increase in the national average price in 2014 reflects a modest rebound in British Columbia, where its provincial share of national sales will return closer to normal and lift the national average price.
Sales activity on a national basis seems to be stable, as are average prices. However, national housing market trends continue to mask some increasingly divergent regional trends.
CREA said that sales activity in the second half of 2012 geared down by more than previously anticipated in some housing markets, resulting in a downward revision to the national sales forecast for 2013.
But it pointed out that the continuation of low interest rates will remain supportive for housing activity and prices this year and next year. Sales are still expected to improve later this year in tandem with stronger economic growth.
National sales activity is forecast to reach 441,500 units in 2013, a 2.9% fall from 454,573 sales in 2012, and some 5% below the 10 year average from 2003 to 2012. It was also a downward revision from the previous forecast for a 2% fall.
Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces where sales are expected to rise in 2013, albeit modestly. The percentage decline in sales in Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia is forecast to exceed the national result this year. The percentage decline in sales in British Columbia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador is forecast to be less than the national result.
CREA said that strong sales in the first half of last year will cast a long shadow over year on year comparisons during the first half of 2013 in many parts of the country. The smaller annual decline being forecast for British Columbia and New Brunswick reflects a weakening trend in these provinces during the first half of 2012 that was not apparent elsewhere.
In 2014, CREA forecasts that national activity will rebound by 4.5% to 461,200 units, reflecting a slow but steady improvement in activity. This would still leave national sales about one per cent below their 10 year average, with activity not expected to return to levels recorded in the first half of 2012 at any point in the forecast horizon.
British Columbia is forecast to see the strongest sales increase in 2014 with growth of 9.5%, albeit from a low base, with most other provinces forecast to post gains in the range between three and five per cent as the continuation of moderate economic, job, population, and income growth offsets small and gradual interest rates increases next year.
‘Mortgage rules are expected to remain as they are, so sales should be less volatile than they have been in recent years. Interest rates are also expected to remain low as the economy grows and adds jobs, which is supportive for the resale housing market,’ said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.
This story relates to: Property canada property market property prices property sales real estate [sEE ALL]
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Nothing.
I'm holding existing positions. Waiting for the next asymmetric opportunity. No need to buy today unless there is a compelling reason.
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People who have generally had no interest in the market over the past few years (friends, colleagues, family members) are now asking me what I think of the market and the new highs it's hitting. I can sense they're soon going to ask what kinds of companies they should invest in. I think the general population's antennas are going up as they sense there may be some "big gains to be had".
I haven't been to any cocktail parties recently, but I imagine stocks will soon be the topic of conversation. I'm not saying we're in a bubble (as I own some very cheap companies that I think will be great investments for the next decade), but I think it's interesting to actually see the public sentiment shift before my eyes.
Anyone else getting these questions? Anyone going to cocktail parties? Can I come?
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LOL at this thread. Pointless.
I'm quoting myself because I still think the above. If you're going to forecast weekly / monthly stock price movements, yikes.
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So....y'all were saying what?
Bro you don't get it. Some people have psychic powers and can day trade with accuracy. You and I need to learn to listen to them.
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LOL at this thread. Pointless.
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I recently subscribed to oddballstocks's http://unlistedstocks.net/
That information combined with reading through all of the historical blog posts is well worth the price of admission.
I think the database is only going to get bigger from here!
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Congratulations! You have something very special here.
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I have nothing against Mohnish, I think he's great, and I've even met him once. I've always wondered though, why do people on this board knock Whitney Tilson for doing exactly what Mohnish is advocating (cloning), while at the same time they respect Mohnish? I personally don't think there is anything wrong with this strategy. It's not very creative, but at the end of the day these guys are responsible for safe guarding and growing OPM, whether their ideas are original or not.
I think Mohnish has a high level of conviction and concentration that a lot of people respect. He's cloning some ideas, and then concentrating to levels very few do.
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Pretty long interview with Mohnish in Outlook India:
http://business.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?283880
Also interviews with other value investors, including Howard Marks & Wilbur Ross:
http://business.outlookindia.com/content.aspx?site=2&issue=10969
Cheers!
Holy crap. The Mohnish interview is epic... and I'm only two paragraphs in. WOW. He crystalizes his thoughts so well.
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Buffett also knew a lot more today about investing than when he started, so if he did 30% then..
Maybe he's saying based on what he knew today, that if he only had $1 million, he could achieve those returns.
That's what he was saying.
My personal belief is that if Buffett decided to start over with $1M today, he wouldn't be doing great business, fair price nor would he be doing a pure Graham. He'd be trolling derivative markets where he wouldn't be required to put almost any capital up. The modern Buffett is a brilliant insurance/derivatives calculator. I think he'd be making those 50% returns that way.
With only $1mm, he wouldn't have access to the derivatives market.
Are you referring to OTC derivatives? Because he would almost certainly be looking at the cleared options market.
I'm thinking about the long-term derivatives. Credit default swaps, Ackman-style equity exposure derivatives, etc.
Edit: My definition may be too narrow. For example, the BAC, AIG warrants allow for LT derivative exposure. However, you do have to put capital down.
BRK Meeting WSJ Live Blog
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
I'm at the meeting. While most people were too polite to say so, Kass' had some of the worst promotional questions probably ever asked at this meeting. I wish a smarter critic was present and asking questions.