nkp007
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Posts posted by nkp007
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He gets an intense reaction/publicity from his F+F articles. It's all about the eyeballs, not necessarily dissecting the nuances.
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Stumbled on some amazing back and forth on twitter. Robert King (apparently a value investor, maybe on this board) is engaging Carney in the most thoughtful way I've seen.
https://twitter.com/robertqking/with_replies
I'm impressed by the depth of Robert's knowledge on the F+F sweep documents.
Edit: LOL It's Merkhet.
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I thought John Malone died. Thanks for scaring me.
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Review of the book: http://www.beyondproxy.com/book-review-education-value-investor/
Let me suggest an appropriate title for the review: "Intern reviews boss's book and likes it"
Another lesson in the power of incentives ;D
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Having read Onyx1/valuecfa's great commentary as a refresher, it sure looks like there are a lot of ways to get to a positive outcome.
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Berkshire is the Facebook of insurance.
How can you say no?
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Looks like Carney is using the face value of the credit line, not accounting for the fact that it was fully paid back.
Every month or so, he writes a superficial article about F+F to stoke the flames. No one takes him very seriously.
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Buffett: Hey Bill, I bet you I can get ten thousand "value investors" to buy a book of random, out of print, old business articles from an author they never heard of.
Gates: No way. These guys always do their research. They think independently and ignore the crowd.
Buffett: It's easy. Just let them think it was our little secret. And add a pre-order button.
Gates: This was a great illuminati meeting. I've learned so much from you Warren.
Lebron: Same here.
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It's definitely weird how I've read tens of thousands of pages by Buffett / about Buffett and this book never once came up until yesterday.
And I just preordered it.
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The excel course at https://breakingintowallstreet.com/biws/breaking-into-wall-street-courses/ is fantastic.
I've been working through some of the models (even though I don't model) just to see what kind of assumptions / thought processes Wall Street analysts make. Explanations are clear and there is a lot of supplementary info.
A huge amount of time is spent on excel shortcuts. That was useful.
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Snowball
The Intelligent Investor
Buffett Letters 1957 - Present (read each and every word)
The Outsiders: Eight Conventional CEOs
Made in America - Sam Walton
How to Win Friends and Influence People - Dale Carnegie
That's six!
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WEB is truly looking for blindsides and it is telling that not a single bear is available. I was hoping someone would show up to help me think about risks I don't know of. Looks like Doug Kass has not been invited back. I thought that Doug's questions last year were mostly without substance and was even silly.
Well, Doug used that as a platform to ask Berkshire to give him money to run a short book for them -- so I'm guessing that probably didn't endear him to Buffett and Munger.
Haha, that was great. Kass went into this long spiel and you could tell where it was heading. Then he asked for $100 million or something like that and Buffett was civil in telling him why that wouldn't be possible, but not saying no directly.
And then Munger chimes in with a "NO!" and then they move on.
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My dignity.
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I'm trying to figure out if this affects me.
I make trades infrequently. But when I do, I look at market prices and set a limit order. If the limit expires at the end of the day, I'll try again the next day.
I figure this affects you more if you trade frequently, want your shares quickly, and don't stick to limit prices.
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I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. He did the Dale Carnegie course because he was scared of public speaking. He said he was a terrible salesman because he looked and sounded like a 12 year old (something like that).
Re the partnerships, a lot of his original investors were friends and family (not much networking required), and later investors came on board because of performance.
Look, I'm not saying the guy was an anti social recluse, but you can't really be an uber networker living in Omaha, can you?
I think I read that his final partnership was worth $600mln in today's money. That sounds pretty small to mid cap to me - I know he invested in AMEX.
My idea of a networker is someone who is at the bar at a conference, handing out business cards....
Back to Scott Hall - I found his twitter, the guy's clearly good. But I found evidence of one expense... a Capital IQ!! They're quite costly, right?
I get Capital IQ through my employment for free. I like it as it helps me see decades of financials on one screen, but I wouldn't pay for it personally.
As for everything else: you guys can think I'm crazy or not. A good chunk of my office does, but we get along well anyway. I don't really let what people think about my lifestyle influence me, because it does not really matter to me what anyone thinks of me.
I dropped out of the fourth grade and became a recluse for over a decade before I was hired by my employer. I'm happy to go back to that lifestyle should it ever be necessary. For various reasons I don't have to work, I just do so because it gives me something to do. This is true freedom to me. Beyond the laws of the land, I don't have to answer to anyone if I do not want to, which I think is an advantage as it allows me to run my life my way and live by my own principles.
I'm not going to condemn any of you for having more lavish or more frugal lifestyles than I have. If that is what makes you happy, then I am glad for you. My way is not for everyone and I know that, but it is the best way for me that I have found. If I ever find a better one, I will change, but until then, I am happy with how I operate right now.
The inner scorecard at its best.
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I just bought two.
For some reason, one didn't feel like enough.
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I don't have a position in these but have been trying to follow the events:
1) Can anyone briefly describe why it's unlikely that the current proposal by the Senate Banking Committee won't be executed on or why shareholders would be left with anything if it is?
It certainly seems easier to use Fannie and Freddie as opposed to hoping that private capital will step up as they're already in existence and have established themselves within a mutli trillion dollar market; however, there certainly seems to be political will to kill them. Even the average Joe, who is most likely to be hurt by losing the 30 year mortgage, doesn't seem to understand this implication and is generally behind the idea of dismantling them. How do you discount idiocy?
1) I don't think the (conservative) House will be caught dead voting for this bill. They want government out of housing completely.
2) This bill seems really similar to Corker-Warner, and that bill stalled, likely due to intense backroom lobbying from the BBR (builders-bankers-realtors) lobby
3) All the builders-bankers-realtors coalition really needs to do is start a marketing blitz to the American public saying that after bailing out the banks and Goldman and AIG, the government now wants to get rid of the 30-year mortgage via elimination of Fannie and Freddie
Any ill will towards these organizations from the general public will likely quickly dissipate once the (hyperbolic) real estate implications are painted in terms America understands.
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None of this is concerning or unexpected...yet.
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The question about putting his widow's money in a Vanguard ETF versus BRK is one I wanted answered. He didn't really answer this question though, so I'm still wondering why he's doing this.
I think he did answer this on Monday, when he said it would be self serving to promote Berkshire.
I love Buffett...but that's a really rich answer.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
http://mobile.thegatesnotes.com/Personal/At-the-Berkshire-Hathaway-Annual-Meeting-in-Omaha
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Everyone should just print things on scrolls. Then we would all read the same amount of pages.
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Investor Fires Salvo Against Fannie, Freddie
Mr. Berkowitz said last week's letters followed a series of unsuccessful attempts to meet with the chief executives of both companies. "It's easy to see we're not welcome," he said, adding he was still waiting for a response. "If the directors have a pulse and five dollars in a bank account, I think they should be concerned because not responding to me would be bordering on gross negligence," he said. -
Seems like you'll get into something extremely illiquid with very little upside that only occurs if things go perfectly.
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This is huge, nkp
That's what REDACTED said!
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Court grants Fairholme discovery motion.
Hypothetical discovery:
Bruce: Can I see any documents you have related to the 2012 sweep?
Government: REDACTED
Bruce: Can I see your profitability forecasts for F+F?
Government: REDACTED
Bruce: Is there anything you're actually willing to show me?
Government: REDACTED you! And REDACTED that mother-REDACTED Ackman guy too.
Brokerage Recommendation
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