nkp007
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Posts posted by nkp007
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I feel sad. Maybe he regrets this.
Also, I wonder how much they paid him. In shares?
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"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."
Yogi Berra
Ha, that's always a good one :D
Though I believe that Cuban was referring to something different: Since afaik Facebook didn't float the whole company during the IPO but just a fraction, they could have reduced supply without changing the size of the 'pizza'.
f.ex. If they have a 100B valuation and float 10% in an IPO, it's not the same as floating 1%. Maybe with 1% there would be an irrational feeding frenzy that would make the stock price stock, but that wouldn't happen with 10%..
Cuban didn't make most his money by investing right? I recall he started a tech company. I read a few of his investment posts and he's generally lost when it comes to patient and disciplined investing.
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I'm a bearish guy in general. And up to today, I was pretty much all cash, except for maybe some option plays.
And over the last few months, I've been waiting for a huge correction so I could start building my position. Even with the slight correction we've had so far, I wasn't impressed... "there's more to go"
"More" included:
-Greek elections
-economic slowdown
-batshit insanity from the rest of Europe, downgrades, bailouts, etc.
-China.
Now, my uncle collects old stamps, old newspapers, old cards. He buys this stuff in bulk from Ebay and thoroughly enjoys looking at them or reading them or just having them around. Just the other day, he got a giant collection of newspapers from the early 1940s, at the height of WW2.
I was intrigued, so I carefully opened up one of the newspapers, which contained a headline about the Germans attacking, and something about Pearl Harbour. I flipped through a couple of more pages and got to the stock section where there were headlines about new M&A activities, and general business commentary. What struck me as odd was that these business commentaries almost seemed removed from the headlines in the previous section about the end of the world. Some stocks were up, some stocks were down, but business as usual (relatively speaking).
And it made me realize... you know what? All this stuff about Greek elections and Europe, and the end of the world... this will all come to pass. It doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things. I mean, what we have going on around us now is nothing compared to WW2. What we are experiencing now is small peanuts. We'll get through it. Things aren't that bad.
TL;DR: I started buying a bunch of stuff today.
Brilliant. I think we are all super-skeptics, but really after all our analysis it doesn't hurt to add a sprinkle of optimism. Mainly recognizing that the world will not end. And if things look really cheap, it's the time to buy.
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Someone forgot to pay the bill. I guess a billion a month in cash flow to Berkshire wasn't enough ;D
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Lol at this whole godforesaken thread.
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I love when famous people have name tags.
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I learned a lot about how $CHK owns some awesome assets, how the supply / demand dynamics of natural gas create an insanely cheap price right now, and how natural gas will probably be the biggest boon to U.S. industry since WWII.
However, I don't like $CHK (I don't feel comfortable with their structure, their management, and the huge cash shortages). Since I invest with concentration, there's no way I'm investing in them. Maybe a small options position.
But I appreciate the takeaways I got from this issue, even though nothing was "actionable" for me.
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Up 10% is nothing. Wait until it's up 5x.
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Beware of people who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
e.g. CNBC, economists, most bankers, anyone who uses a formula to guide the entirety of their investment decisions, those who dive too deep into details and miss the big picture, those who just look at the big picture and don't dive into any of the details, those who quote stock prices without mentioning anything fundamental on a per share level...
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Great piece.
My interpretation:
-Germany is eventually going to have to care enough to save the EU because if they don't, they're going to suffer a lot via an overly-strong currency and significantly reduced regional demand.
-They need to act soon. Bandaid theory. One big swipe.
-I think that everyone has been thinking about the outcomes at least from 2010. The levels of preparation by global banks and businesses should significantly brunt the impact. The main damage is not from an unexpected sudden change, but the slow draining of capital and liquidity from lower tier European countries.
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Oh my god it came in the mail yesterday...!
Christmas in July indeed.
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I love seeing these articles...(the death of equities part)
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d754f94c-a4ba-11e1-9908-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vj8SAa8h
I love when people treat stocks as one entity, as if they are all the same.
"I won't ever invest in stocks. They suck. Look at Facebook!"
Also what the hell is this:
"As equity markets shrink, so does the sway of the owners of that equity, reducing shareholder control over companies – and challenging accepted concepts of corporate ownership."
Are we in the time Buffett was in during his heyday?
"Some hope that the cycle is about to turn and that the preconditions for a new cult of the equity will emerge even if it takes time. Few people doubt, however, that the old cult of the equity – which steered long-term savers into loading their portfolios with shares – has died."
"Indeed, equities have not been so cheap relative to bonds since 1956, which turned out to be one of the best moments in history to have bought stocks. George Ross Goobey, the British fund manager who ran Imperial Tobacco’s pension fund, had announced to great scepticism that he was shifting his entire portfolio into equities, sparking the cult of the equity because dividend yields exceeded bond yields."
And finally, the epic quote that you'll look back on in ten years and laugh:
"For Mr Buckland, this is “the logical response to the collapse in investor appetite for equities evident in the past decade”. But it also implies that capitalism as currently conceived, where corporate managers are responsible to their owners through the stock market, is under threat.
With fund managers under pressure to buy bonds – and companies content to adapt to this rather than create the conditions where equities might look exciting again – it is easy to see why they believe the next cult of the equity is still up to a decade away. For Mr Utermann, there is “no natural flow into equities” for the next five to 10 years. “The rules of the game have changed”."
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JPM traded down to $28 last year despite there being no rumors about it needing to raise capital.
BAC traded down to $5 last year in the face of noisy capital concerns. Without those concerns, maybe it would have hit $7 and no further down?
BAC at $7 now without capital concerns. JPM needs to go down another 20% to hit it's 2011 Euro-crisis low.
This is why I think BAC's volume has come down lately.
I backed up the truck, filled up the cargo bay, and now am filing up the passenger and driver compartment. If this keeps up, I'm going to have to start storing stuff on the roof. Wish I had two trucks.
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Would post this under the meeting notes but there really wasn't any insight gained so far from the meeting.
Meeting mainly consisted of Q&A no presentation and 99% of the questions was people bitching about the bank funding coal companies or people losing their homes.
Was glad with how BM handled the meeting and stay cool through the whole thing. I honest can't say I would have done the same thing.
Intersting note: There were 8 cops in the meeting and half of the attendees were protestors with NPA (what ever the hell that means) at the end they all got up and started protesting.
Security was extremely tight to get in.
Out of the whole meeting two questions were actually asked that had merit.
Sorry but there was no great insight gained from this one.
This type of hatred has got to signify some large element of undervaluation. Especially since no one is focusing on the fundamentals (and I guarantee you none of those protestors owns a share of the stock).
What's interesting is that I think most of the American public feels the same way about BAC and would rather not own it, based simply on perception.
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I've been adding to BAC AIG and C. I am out of cash. Fully invested. It had to happen sometime.
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Today's WSJ article is framed as if the cuts will lead to BAC shooting itself in the foot. I doubt that's the case, but that's the perception.
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Lol. This is a witch hunt.
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Great plan!
Don't ask for dividend / repurchase permission; instead, use excess cash to buy back debt.
With a 74% loans to deposits, there is no need for expensive financing especially if it is expensive and does not contribute to capital ratios. Too much liquidity!
Yep. Looks like low hanging fruit.
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Great plan!
Don't ask for dividend / repurchase permission; instead, use excess cash to buy back debt.
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On a related note, just out of curiosity:
If you don't have enough cash to make a sizable position in any new opportunities and you don't want to sell any current holdings, do you just stop looking for stocks and stop doing research for a while until you are able to take advantage of opportunities again?
Always keep looking. Always keep adding to your watchlists. If you come across an investment that has a 99% chance of doubling, you'll probably find something to sell.
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Lol. I was joking.
Much better to short the B's ;)
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That's some severe imitation. Alas, their investing styles are anything but the same.
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That's great! Effective searching is key. Thanks.
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In an effort to study the history of various companies, I have attempted to locate some old annual reports.
I found the following sources:
http://www.proquest.com/en-US/catalogs/databases/detail/pq_hist_annual_repts.shtml
Looks perfect, but unfortunately does not have trials for individual users
and
http://library.columbia.edu/indiv/business/guides/annual_reports.html
Looks interesting, but only has a very limited number of reports online.
I'm going to seek out the proquest data at a library, but in terms of reading old annual reports from home, does anyone have any suggestions?
In addition, I'd love to look through reams of old, business related newspaper articles. Any suggestions?
Free Manual of Ideas Superinvestor Issue
in General Discussion
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If it's free, whatever it costs!