finetrader
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Everything posted by finetrader
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MTY Food (mty-to) is definitely up there and current share price is reasonable
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It is not the Board that preferred liquidation, but the Creditors.
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If I had to guess I would say Japan debt
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Mr. Francis Chou's 2016 annual report is out
finetrader replied to Cigarbutt's topic in General Discussion
I can't help but think about Berkowitz's comment "everybody needs a charlie" when I look at Chou funds. -
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/transalta-cancels-a-planned-preferred-share-swap-because-of-investor-push-back Closed position. For a small profit
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Definitely helps to have extracurricular activities while waiting for the fat pitch. They don't call us passive investors for nothing
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"I think we've seen structural changes in the way the world operates that make growth more likely to continue winning in future years" The way I see it, nothing has changed, but interest rates. P/E ratio has increased. So when P/E=7 was cheap for a certain asset. it now trades at 10 times. The hard thing is to decide if P/E=10 for that asset is cheap in this environment (low rates).
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TransAlta Announces Adjustment to Series A Offer Premium http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/transalta-corporation-files-management-information-circular-relating-proposed-preferred-tsx-ta-2188681.htm I bought Series A ( TA.PR.D) after reading comments that made lots of sense on this tread. Now the question is, will it be enough to get it approved?
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~22%, FTP.db.a has been the big winners for me in 2016.
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switch from Mutual funds to Index funds, to save on fees.
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Reduction in Equity Hedges to 50%
finetrader replied to valueinvesting101's topic in Fairfax Financial
Sell low, buy high :o -
Maybe that is another illustration of why experienced investors keep saying it is easier to know when to buy then when to sell
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It is tough to outperformed but if you don't, you should hire somepone who does or close your business. Otherwise you are just a salesman.
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High Quality Emerging Markets Businesses
finetrader replied to ukvalueinvestment's topic in General Discussion
HDFC Bank -Very well run -They have been growing earnings at 30%+ for the past 10 years and more -
2015 results: +13.5%. Thanks to USD/CAD appreciation.
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Do you hedge currency exposure for foreign stocks?
finetrader replied to matjone's topic in General Discussion
As a Canadian investor having more than 50% of his portfolio in USD, now might be a good time to hedge at least a portion of my US exposure. -
I bought some Telus(T) today, hopefully for a short term trade profit if (when) it bounce back up.
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Oil, wow, WTF happened to all of the oil bugs on this site?
finetrader replied to opihiman2's topic in General Discussion
Hey aws, You are right, it is way too high. I ran some numbers in my head last night while reading the income statements about Spartan Energy(SPE-t), and it doesn't make sense today. I must have been omitting something in my calculation. -
Oil, wow, WTF happened to all of the oil bugs on this site?
finetrader replied to opihiman2's topic in General Discussion
Well, that is what I'm trying to assess. I looked at many canadian pure oil producer( no gas and gas liquid) and I cannot find any one that is a bargain if you take a 75$/barrel of oil as an average price for the next ten years. Add production + royalty + administrative + inerest + D&A costs, and no one is breaking even below 60$. Take (75-60) 15 * boe/day production * 365 = X Put a P/E ratio of 15 on this, (X*15= IV), and you will soon find that the market cap of a given oil company is 3 times higher than the IV -
Oil, wow, WTF happened to all of the oil bugs on this site?
finetrader replied to opihiman2's topic in General Discussion
When analysing oil producer, I always come back to this same question? Is amortization and depreciation a good proxy for maintenance capex (i.e. Capex required to maintain production rate in the long run)? -
Oil, wow, WTF happened to all of the oil bugs on this site?
finetrader replied to opihiman2's topic in General Discussion
My guess is Saudis will wait 'till all the derivative that oil companies took to hedged their production at 100$ a barrell expired so that everyone is swimmimg naked. That would bring us not before summer 2016.. Just a guess of mine -
RIP He was a great leader
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I have looked quite extensively at the numbers of a few Canadian oil producers, namely Canadian Oil Sand, Whitecap Resources, Baytex. And if oil averaged 75$ a barrel in the future(5-10 years), those stocks are probably fairly priced. What I want to say here is that, 100$/boe was probably too high because this has led to an oversupplied market. 50$/boe is probably too low because no one is making money (other than the Saudis and few others) That is why I'm coming with price in the middle ->75$/boe. But in this scenario, even if oil stocks have decreased significantly ( 50% and more) they don't interest me because I can't find the 1$ for 0,50$ that a value investor is looking for. So I prefer to stay on the sideline for now. Just sharing my thinking with you here. Ftr