Green King

Thanks I've read it. I think it is too hard for me to get comfortable. Thanks you for the help Myth465 and alertmeipp.

Thanks you i get the story now, but how do you see it from public information ? Does one just need years of experience in the sector ? I've looked at the balance sheet three times now i am drawing blanks. :-[ Many smaller O&G companies will collapse if they stop drilling, this one is actually one of the better one. Their gap is very manageable. One would argue the best way to get out of the hole if to borrow as much as u can and have a long duration, see TW-era SD. IMO, it makes sense for asset rich company, it's efficient is cost of debt is low. But nobody like it these days. How do you know what they are drilling are economic ? I've looked at the cash flow for the last few years. Capex have increased a lot but the bottom line doesn't look like it has changed materially.

Thanks you i get the story now, but how do you see it from public information ? Does one just need years of experience in the sector ? I've looked at the balance sheet three times now i am drawing blanks. :-[

Can someone show me how this is not a house of cards? And if they stop capex the capital structure implode. TIA

interesting point all that work so little return.

Thanks for the fun. :D

Likely lower margins and higher volume. Long term brand erosion. Selling out the dealers that provides brand image and dependable demand. For quick short term profits. IMHO

Herding and it's effects are what make us human. The best thing that can be done is to try to teach your kids the advantage of ignoring the crowd and think for themselves like free individual. On the side note fashion or retail seems to hard to know. Due to its dependence on herding and clever influence game by marketers. (This game is a hard one and it is ever changing over time)

Thanks for the insights. Did you ask what it means to be popular?

what did Francis Chou say was the cheapest way to start a fund in Canada was ?

Is he using a random words generator ?

Watch out for confirmation bias Care to elaborate on what you mean? I am not comfortable reaffirming things that are know to be true. Especially when it the teaching of Buffett and Munger. i don't know if you have learn their full teachings. but i been having a hard time find a idea that can do 15% over time that passes the four fillers. They are easy to read harder to understand fully and apply in reality. Each time i read their stuff i have been getting new things. Which help me generate a new metal model of the world. In fact some of the new ideas i have come across my self have been said in their past talks that i have looked at a few times before. I have become diligent when reading or listening to their texts since things that seems oblivious and simple are not so. mostly in fear of missing great simple insight. having confirmation bias on top of that is like having free handicaps.

why work for some or a organization who has people who are subject to liking distortion making decisions that requires them to be objective ?

Watch out for confirmation bias

Thank you for the 1 hr of fun. ;D It seems the fundamental forces doesn't change over time in this game. Correct me if i am wrong but did Buffett make 100x on The Washington Post ?

Look at those numbers !! ;D Gets the heart pumping doesn't it ? http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/11/112761/ARs/1972AR.pdf http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/11/112761/ARs/1979AR.pdf

Happy birthday thx for the great forum.

Can you tell us how you know the reserves are real?

can i get a link to that speech please. ? :)

Tell me you can buy. Or if you can help me figure out the reserves are real. if you can know they are there these are the the cheapest things on earth. Here All 2012 numbers So for Lukoil BOE is 17B and Market Cap 45B. $2.65 per BOE For Exxon BOE is 20B and Market Cap 400B. $20 per BOE. Gazprom BOE 230B and Market Cap 82B. $0.3565 (gas intensive) Per BOE Lukoil english statistics page 3 http://www.lukoil.com/static_6_5id_2112_.html Source Page 10 gazprom reference gazprom-reference-figures-2008-2012-eng.pdf

Contractual cash flows are much different than equity cash flows. The key to investing is get more birds from the bush with the one in the hand. So the way you are getting it should not matter. For that to work one should have a 5 to 10 year investing period. If you invest in something that will grow stronger over time. The company can reinvest and higher than their cost of capital. Why would you want them to pay money out ? The interest payment only serve physiological purpose. If you are not in need of a loan now. There is no difference in terms of pricing i am confident that the market will get the prices right in 5 to 10 years.

Ask him if he needs a loan get him over the short term. If not tell him stocks are the same as bonds. They are all cash flow. ;D (no offence intended just trying to show the situation)

Thank you for this. It gives a lot more depth to don't back to start.

How do you know? please tell. I don't watch Marco closely. I thought China was just slowing down.

Correct me if i am completely wrong or industry change i see is overblown. There is also Coal and supporting industries, but there is also a bit of structural change attached to them. But Telecom seems to be touched by structural change. <Industry dynamics seems to be too hard to tell for some.> Defense seems also more normalized since IRAQ war give a big boost in earnings which dose not seems to occur more.