Green King

I found it super interesting how quickly things ran up. I learn a lot about different regions' trading dynamics. It was overall very hard. If I had cut things in half at the right time, my entire i probably would have 3 times my money now. I like to try to catch these next time. Looking forward to better sizing and cutting.

I wrote this article to share and reflect on a bet I made on China back in 2024. Would love for everyone to check it out and let me know what you think. Reflections on a China trade — the thesis, the options, the loss, and what I got wrong about the world's second largest economy. I am starting to write again. Tell me what you think. Feel free to ask me anything. Reflections on a China Bet and a Tail Betting Experiment https://open.substack.com/pub/condensed/p/reflections-on-a-china-bet-and-a?r=7401s&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

How much do you think it's worth? I always thought Buffett was buying it to make in the long run. Mugner's talk about oil and all. It is also a tech business, so if they figure out new technology, there is still more oil there.

Geico is being run like a declining business. Maybe the next few decades are not so rosy for auto insurers. It is better to take out the capital from the business. The expanse ratio is 8.7% for me it's unheard of in this industry. The problem was they hadn't invested enough to get better pricing.

I think that risk is gone. From recent action, most of that news is posturing. If there was a war the entire world economy would be destroyed.

I haven't looked at Canadians markers much. Would like some recommendations of divided stocks to look at. Cheers

Sounds interesting I might start by going through the report Just FYI M* is changing the analyst on DBX. The old report is still available, but they dropped some parts like value estimate (that may be irrelevant for you anyway). Do you have the old report?

Sounds interesting I might start by going through the report

I can understand that. I am thinking about framing it more see this like a pile of bank loans you can not know what's there for sure. It's more about taking a look at the big ones or a sample of them to see if it is worth a bet. With the margin of safety given by the discount. with the underlying assumption, they are not all shit. Or to see if there are enough red flags to pass on the whole thing. On my first look, there were too many flags so I passed. I put it up here mostly with the intention to see the rigor in research Muddy water produces. I ways thought these things were low value i want to get an understanding of a sample.

Here is the link for the straw poll https://www.strawpoll.me/20549293 The votes seems to not be refecting the interest. Cheers Jason

https://condensed.substack.com/p/choose-your-own-research-adventure?r=7401s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy I wrote a short description of a few ideas i want to look into. Please check out my first look analysis and vote for the ones you want to see. $DBX Dropbox Inc High return on brain damage, possible long term payoff $BUR Burford Capital Limited High Return on popcorn, low return on brain damage $ING ING Group, Low return on brain damage, maybe grow my edge technology $EB Eventbrite Inc High return on brain damage, maybe impossible to know Cheers Jason,

Probably my biggest take-away from traveling was exactly this: I met several people with 1/100 of the assets/salaries of us here in the west, but they were 100x happier. Puts our first-world problems in perspective and frankly how unnecessarily we grind so hard and become so unhappy. Been to ~50 countries and agree with both of these big time. Once we get past the pandemic, I'm going to look heavily into digital nomading/slow travel. It's not that expansive in most places in the third world. You just need to find a place to rent monthly. In places like Mexico my cost has been between 500 to 1000 dollars per month.

Probably my biggest take-away from traveling was exactly this: I met several people with 1/100 of the assets/salaries of us here in the west, but they were 100x happier. Puts our first-world problems in perspective and frankly how unnecessarily we grind so hard and become so unhappy. I am relocating to London this month. Let's chat when I get settled.

Thanks for the kind words. :)

Here is the start of my reflections. More coming. https://condensed.substack.com/p/hello?r=7401s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy

Happy Saturnalia http://neilhague.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/santa-crampus.png http://neilhague.com/index.php/2016/12/19/merry-saturnalia/

"Primum non nocere" I don't see it as any different from any other form of capital allocation. Investing is a hard and should be done with caution. I am not sure any advice given at this point in time could be beneficial instead of harm. Best bet would be to get re-certified if they don't need the money could be fun and the world always needs more doctors. Second best thing to do is for them to look into their networks and see if there is anything interesting there.(In their case the field of medicine) It is will be primary information flow and might command an information advantage that we don't have. Those that start a second wind around their 50s already know what they should be doing.

Best thing to do is land and start the immigration process and work in their home country part-time if they need the money, if they don't need the money early retirement or get a hobby. With some contemplation, they should not be taking on risk at this age so allocation should be below 20%. I don't think you should give be giving advice on this topic if it doesn't work out it will create real human misery.

What is your IV for Pan Orient?

I don't understand it. Please explain it to me like I am five.

I didn't know inflation was 400% in the past year.

Thanks

what are CIKs?

I would argue mind share has changed significantly over the past 10 years due to the rise of mobile and the consolidation of the internet by categories I agree with that. Relative to historical levels yes fast. Relative to the speed of Google facebook zero to hero much slower or Altavista Hero to zero.

A distribution built out is based on cost benefit analysis of your product. Low margin high volume vs high margin low volume. Coca Cola is a very profitable product and will be for a long time. These products might not carry the same share of mind as they used to but still worth something. would love to buy it at 5 times earnings. It is over priced and there is too much competition in those names. It is harder to create massive focused influence as compared to the past. But I wasn't around during the golden age of tv so I am not sure. Also share of mind over entire market share changes slowly due to the limitation of the human mind.