investmd

@dartmonkey: agree. Don't know what "test" the original post was referring to. Here is the post: "Vinodh had a cardiac arrest because he did not know that one of his arteries was 99% blocked and needed a stent. Because of Vinodh, we have initiated a simple testing of the heart across all our companies in the world for any employee 50 years or older and their spouse. Already, we have saved about 10 employees in North America who needed a stent and didn’t know about it. Vinodh’s legacy!" What is odd is saying they have saved lives of 10 presumably asymptomatic employees age > 50 who underwent a stent procedure. I think Prem Watsa has good intentions and aims to help. The translation of medical information to him is another matter. While starting a statin or medical mgmt may be low risk and appropriate, I've seen lots of folks have interventional procedures like stents, CABG that may not be considered guideline directed therapy. Over treating is especially common in countries where there is a fee for service medical system.

I’d like to go next year. I won’t be at AGM, but if anyone has info pls do post here.

How does one find out more information about the next trip to India? Is there a registration link with details of dates, price, locations?

Reflecting back on sage comments by @Parsad in 2019 that have come true today

This is odd. Screening of asymptomatic heart disease has not yet been shown to save lives. In some cases, based on the anatomy, the benefits of intervention do outweigh the risks. However, blanket screening and treatment just because of asymptomatic finding leads to worse outcomes due to complications from the procedure. International guidelines do exist for reasons.

@KPO have you added/held to $TDOC position as price fell since the post? They hold the largest user base of any telehealth company and seem to be expanding across platforms to both outpatient and inpatient care. Telehealth generally doesn't have a moat. TDOC may be an exception in their worldwide foot print, relationships with insurers and governments. Stock is down 88% since Jan 2020- pre-Covid. Appears attractive?

If anyone is in Calgary and wants to get together with a small group for a "book club" discussing value investing, ping me. So far I've got a group of 5 together.

Gift of Rain

Thanks Xerxes! for sharing ideas from trip to Penang. I'm currently reading a fictional book set in Penang - sheds insight into the mingling of Chinese, British and Indian cultures. Look forward to the trip,

Going to be based in Penang this summer for 3-4 weeks - first time to Malaysia/Singapore area. Any recommendations of things to not miss in the Penang area or travel in that vicinity?

I've liked Francis Chou's thought process for 2 decades. Just finished reading the 2023 annual letter. I don't understand how bright money managers can keep making justifications for pursuing their philosophy whilst underperforming vs S&P over long period of times: An individual invested in this fund (& many others) for 10yrs, 15yrs, or 20 yrs has significantly underperformed the S&P 500. Yet the same letter states how the Chou Fund is rated as having one of the best returns over long period of times. If the reason to invest is the desire to outperform the index - chase alpha - how do managers justify their performance? Do money managers believer the index is too risky because of tech stocks and while active money managers may underperform, they are less risky than the index??? After pursuing an active management value investing style for two decades, I realize that compounding in index would have yielded better financial returns. However, by participating in the community, I have learned a lot.

@Parsad well said. After pursuing an active investment management strategy for the past 2 decades, sobering to see that not a single value manager I know of - even the zero fee funds ones - have outperformed the S&P 500 for the past decade. Anything can happen going forward, but I'm curious to hear arguments as to realistic risks for long term investors of investing in US index vs. active managers like the ones you mentioned. Even though S&P 500 is heavily weighted to MAG 7, should Tesla, Nvidia etc. collapse, there will be new ones creeping up in the index.

Have held the stock for close to 2 decades - despite frustrations of 2010-2020 era. IMO, annual letters always read like the author is exuding positivity, not necessarily humility. Good to see the mea culpa this year on Blackberry. I do find it surprising that Watsa didn't discuss the MW short. I understand taking the high road approach in order to focus on the company's earnings. On the other hand, an annual letter is meant to convey the highlights and lowlights since the last letter. Treating the MW's short as a "non-event" doesn't seem appropriate given the news it attracted - especially for a company that has been hit hard by a previous shorting attempt. If I recall correctly, the other interesting omission in this year's letter was no discussion of stock buybacks. In previous letters he has discussed Singleton's approach to reducing share count, hinting at future stock buybacks.

If anyone on this board is going to PIF AGM next weekend in Austin and wants to meet up, pls message me.

Thanks @Spekulatius. That makes sense. The Cannibals portfolio is mostly algorithm driven. MP is still holding MU in his fund. I believe he has had MU for >5yrs without much to show. He obviously has conviction that the next 5 years will be different. Let's see how it plays out.

On recent Conference call did Watsa shed any light on what FFH is doing with profits from sale of pet insurance business in 2022?

@Spekulatius have seen you mention several times MP selling Micron shares. Can I ask you when did he sell MU and what % of his MU position did he exit? Everything I've seen, indicates MU is a core position of >15% in MP holdings for 5+ yrs and one of his few US positions along with Brookfield. As of Fall 2022, he remained bullish on MU.

@RetroRanger thanks for posting the Pabrai video. Interesting perspective on 100 baggers.

Seems like an option to buy shares during a Capital raise. Does that mean pre-existing shareholders can buy in at 1 lira whereas new investors have to come in at today's price of 3 lira? Company was trading at 8 Lira a few months ago.

Can't find anything online to explain the drastic fall

My takeaways from 2020 AGM: Prem admitted some mistakes (which is a change), but remains as bullish on FFH as ever. Everything is great. Companies are great, people are all awesome. Got to hand it to Prem for consistency in Optimism Bought corp bonds at 4% yield and sold half of them at 1% yield Didn't sell BB - conv. explanation of securities regulation. Not clear whether they would have sold if spike event had occurred outside of the 6 month prohibition on trading window Stock positions increased 18% in Q1 Insurance underwriting business performing v. all and flow compounding at a consistently healthy rate

Xerxes, would love to see this thread of where FFH is in 2030 and have it updated yearly :) Parsad, While this may seem like a great trade in the next 2-3 years. I think the narrowing the discount will only come on the back of a rising book value, so you would get a double-lift in absolute and relative terms. But then what ... Do you see it as having a real "growth" engine once the discount narrows ... past these relatively speaking low hanging fruits. Maybe we should make it a thread. Where do folks see FFH ten years from now !!!! - size of the float - outstanding shares (hopefully 40% bought back) - the size and growth of FIH - the size and growth of Atlas - book value - share price - hopefully Resolute and Stelco long gone. I like BB converts. Can Prem pull a Microsoft out of his hat

Going through the posts on this thread, my summary is that consensus is that 1) basic underlying principle of identifying a business that will return your money and more to you in future is just good investing & 2) perhaps there has been some evolution in "value investing" to not only focus on P/E, P/B, assets and debt but also place emphasis on potential to grow earnings. Does that make sense?

excellent points above by LC, Cherecza and Writser questioning why Amazon could not be a "value company". I like the comment also about value investing being "nerdy" and gravitating to "mathy" situations and missing out on the potential growth prospect. Maybe what should be dead is the topic of "value" vs. "growth". Maybe the markets have come to a new way of "investing well" which blends assessing BOTH intrinsic valuation of assets and multiple of yesterday's earnings but also giving important consideration to earnings growth.